Western Digital Corporation (WDC)
UndervaluedFundamental
65
Price
$343.67
Market Cap
$124.28B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Western Digital makes hard disk drives, the spinning-platter storage technology that still holds most of the world's data despite decades of competition from flash memory, because it remains far cheaper per gigabyte for storing huge, infrequently accessed volumes of information. Its main customers are cloud and data-center operators who buy drives by the tens of thousands; a smaller business sells storage to PC makers and consumers. In early 2025 the company completed the separation of its flash memory business, SanDisk, leaving Western Digital a pure hard-drive company.
How it makes money
Nearly all revenue now comes from selling physical hard drives, mostly under negotiated bulk contracts with cloud and enterprise customers whose orders track their own data-center capacity expansion plans. A much smaller share comes from client devices (drives built into PCs and other equipment) and consumer retail products (external hard drives). Because most output goes to a handful of very large buyers, pricing and volumes swing with their capacity-spending cycles rather than with steady end-consumer demand.
Revenue by segment
High-capacity drives sold to cloud and enterprise data-center operators; now by far the dominant end market.
Retail external hard drives and other storage products sold directly to individual consumers.
Drives sold to PC and other equipment manufacturers for integration into their own products.
Competitive moat
Scale · NarrowDecades of industry consolidation have left only two significant hard-drive makers, Western Digital and Seagate, so the huge fixed cost of precision drive manufacturing is now a real barrier to new entrants. But the product is still a commodity component that customers can dual-source, and buyers with far more scale than Western Digital can push back hard on price, so the advantage does not extend to pricing power.
What drives demand
CyclicalThe hard-drive industry has a long history of swinging between shortage, when prices and margins are strong, and glut, when they collapse, driven by how much data-center capacity a handful of huge cloud buyers decide to build in any given period. Western Digital posted losses as recently as 2023-2024 during a downturn, showing how quickly favorable pricing can reverse if cloud demand or capacity plans change.
Key risks
- Revenue concentrated among hyperscale customers — A small group of very large cloud customers drives the great majority of revenue, so a pullback, renegotiation or dual-sourcing decision by even one of them can move results significantly.
- Lumpy, sporadic hyperscale demand — Hyperscale customers order in connection with large, sporadic data-center build-outs and can request significant volumes on short lead times, making demand far less steady than consumer-driven sales and putting pressure on Western Digital's ability to plan capacity.
- Pricing and industry cyclicality — Today's favorable pricing environment is not guaranteed to persist; the industry has a history of sharp swings in revenue and cash flow, including losses in 2023-2024, and a shift in cloud demand or pricing could quickly pressure margins again.
- Customer bargaining power — Customers can choose among a variety of suppliers, giving them substantial leverage on pricing and contract terms and often shifting risk and cost onto Western Digital as the supplier.
Customer concentration
Top customers account for 71% of revenue
Western Digital's ten largest customers account for roughly 71% of revenue, concentrated among a handful of hyperscale cloud operators whose order timing and volumes drive the great majority of results.
The case for
Buyers argue that AI-driven data growth is fueling unprecedented demand for high-capacity cloud storage, that the industry's consolidation down to two real hard-drive makers gives Western Digital durable pricing power in the current cycle, and that focusing purely on hard drives after the SanDisk separation lets management run a simpler, higher-margin business.
The case against
Sellers fear that revenue this concentrated among a handful of hyperscale buyers leaves Western Digital exposed to a single customer's capacity-spending decision, that the industry's long history of boom-and-bust pricing means today's strong margins are unlikely to be permanent, and that hyperscale customers' bargaining power will erode pricing once capacity tightness eases.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
No editorial profile for this company yet
No competitor list for this company yet.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$12.92B
Trailing 12 months (through 7/3/2026)
Net Income
$9.42B
Trailing 12 months (through 7/3/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$3.51B
Total Equity
$8.86B
Total Liabilities
$5.00B
Current Ratio
1.33
Interest Coverage
26.99
Debt/EBITDA
0.25
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$520.73
Current Price
$343.67
Margin of Safety
+34.0%
Fair Value Range
$338.47 - $702.98
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
14.15
ROE
106.3%
P/B Ratio
13.98
P/FCF
35.29
Gross Margin
48.9%
ROIC
36.6%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
36.6%
WACC
17.1%
ROIC − WACC
+19.4 pp
ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (18)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR 10.79%
- Price CAGR 24.88%
- ROIC 36.6%
- Gross margin 48.9%
- Debt/equity ratio
- Operating margin 34.5%
- Positive free cash flow
- CapEx intensity
- Current ratio
- Interest coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on tangible assets
- ROE 117.8%
- Earnings surprise, average 10.3%
- PEG ratio 0.25
- Net margin trend 72.9% vs 19.8%
- Piotroski F-Score 7/9
Failed (8)
- P/FCF 35.29
- P/B ratio 13.98
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Revenue growth 5Y -5.3%
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 0.42
- Share dilution 5.2%
Unavailable (1)
- Dividend payout –
Piotroski F-Score
Strong financial health
Earnings Quality
Low quality: investigate accounting
Share Dilution
Issuing new shares, diluting ownership
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Tiang Yew Tan | CEO & Director | 55 |
| Mr. Kris A. Sennesael | Executive VP & CFO | 56 |
| Mr. Vidyadhara K. Gubbi | Executive VP & Chief of Global Operations | 61 |
| Ms. Cynthia Lock Tregillis | Executive VP, Chief Legal Officer & Secretary | 55 |
| Mr. Ahmed M. Shihab | Executive VP & Chief Product Officer | 53 |
| Mr. C. Wesley M. Scott | Chief Investment Officer | 78 |
| Mr. Brad D. Feller | Senior VP & Chief Accounting Officer | 51 |
| Mr. Sesh Tirumala | Chief Information Officer | - |
| Dr. Ambrish Srivastava Ph.D. | Vice President of Investor Relations | - |
| Mr. Brian Scott Davis | Executive VP and Chief Sales & Marketing Officer | 62 |
Audit Risk
10
Board Risk
3
Compensation Risk
3
Shareholder Rights Risk
5
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-08-14
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-10-23
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-10-22
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much WDC moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 97% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 66.1%
- Volatility 90d
- 85.2%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- 3.12Correlation 0.49
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -55.5%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 7.28%
Earnings reactions
How WDC moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
No upcoming release on the calendar.
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 6.4% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 6, down 6 (out of 12).
- Of the 7 releases that beat estimates, the stock fell the next day after 4.
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | After the close | 4.10 | 4.64 | +13.3% | -2.3% | -3.8% | n/a |
| Aug 5, 2026 | After the close | 3.33 | 3.56 | +7.0% | -17.4% | -13.0% | -12.5% |
| Apr 30, 2026 | After the close | 2.41 | 2.72 | +12.7% | -6.5% | -0.7% | +6.8% |
| Jan 29, 2026 | After the close | 1.94 | 2.13 | +10.0% | -0.1% | -10.1% | -6.5% |
| Oct 30, 2025 | After the close | 1.60 | 1.78 | +11.6% | +12.6% | +8.7% | +18.4% |
| Jul 30, 2025 | After the close | 1.50 | 1.66 | +10.8% | +3.9% | +10.2% | +3.3% |
| Apr 30, 2025 | During the session | 1.13 | 1.36 | +19.9% | +5.8% | +8.0% | +9.0% |
| Jan 29, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +5.8% | +4.7% | +3.1% |
| Oct 24, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +9.4% | +4.7% | -1.5% |
| Jul 31, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -10.0% | -9.7% | -16.1% |
| Apr 25, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +2.2% | +2.8% | +0.4% |
| Jan 25, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -2.4% | -3.5% | -4.9% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on WDC and what the price did next.
- 10/23/2026PositiveAzioni Western Digital in rialzo: utili solidi bilanciano capex e timori sull'offerta
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 10/7/2026NegativeLe azioni Western Digital rischiano una rottura ribassista: ecco perché
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 10/5/2026PositivePerché le azioni di Western Digital e Seagate rimbalzano lunedì?
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 10/2/2026NegativeWhy Western Digital and Seagate are seeing big stock drops today
- +1 day
- -11.0%
- +3 days
- -13.1%
- 8/27/2026PositiveSanDisk +5% pre-mercato: l'allerta memoria di Nvidia può estendere il rally?
- +1 day
- -2.1%
- +3 days
- -4.0%
- 8/14/2026PositivePerché le azioni SanDisk salgono del 6% oggi, oltre +30% nella settimana
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 7/1/2026NegativeSandisk’s and Micron’s stocks sink as the rotation trade builds, but supply shortages should limit losses
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 6/20/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
- +1 day
- -1.5%
- +3 days
- -11.9%
- 6/15/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
- +1 day
- +4.8%
- +3 days
- +15.3%
- 6/8/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for WDC.
- 1d agoPOSITIVEAzioni Western Digital in rialzo: utili solidi bilanciano capex e timori sull'offerta
Western Digital reported strong first-quarter fiscal results, with revenues surging 55% year-over-year to $4.38 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $4.14 billion. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $4.64, also exceeding consensus estimates. The company's performance was bolstered by continued demand for its Hard Disk Drives (HDDs), benefiting from AI infrastructure spending. Despite these positive figures, concerns linger among Wall Street analysts regarding increased capital expenditures, potential supply increases in the sector, and the long-term sustainability of demand. Nevertheless, the robust earnings and positive outlook have driven the stock up by 1.06% on Friday, indicating investor confidence in the short-term performance.
- 3d agoNEUTRALIl titolo Western Digital è in mercato ribassista: rimbalzo dopo i risultati?
Western Digital Corporation's stock has experienced a significant downturn, falling over 52% from its June peak of $800 to the current $378. This decline has reduced its market capitalization from $257 billion to $141 billion, reflecting persistent weakness in the memory chip sector. The company's upcoming quarterly report is being closely watched by investors as a potential catalyst for sentiment improvement and stock performance recovery. The implied volatility for WDC has surged, underscoring the market's uncertainty. The broader memory industry ETF (DRAM) also shows double-digit declines across its constituents.
- 17d agoNEGATIVELe azioni Western Digital rischiano una rottura ribassista: ecco perché
Western Digital shares have entered a bear market, trading at $410, down 50% from their all-time high. The company's market capitalization has shrunk from $258 billion to $148 billion. This sell-off mirrors declines in other memory sector players, with SanDisk (SNDK) down over 31% and Kioxia down 52%. The DRAM ETF, tracking major memory firms, has also fallen more than 27%. This broad sector weakness suggests significant headwinds for memory chip manufacturers, impacting investor sentiment and potentially leading to further price depreciation for Western Digital.
- 19d agoPOSITIVEPerché le azioni di Western Digital e Seagate rimbalzano lunedì?
Western Digital Corporation (WDC) and Seagate Technology shares experienced a rebound on Monday, following analyst assessments of Toshiba's potential expansion in hard disk drive (HDD) production. WDC shares climbed 6.8% and Seagate gained 5.9% in afternoon trading. This recovery comes after a sharp decline on Friday, triggered by reports of Toshiba's plans to significantly boost HDD manufacturing capacity. Analysts, however, suggest that while Toshiba's expansion might increase supply, it is unlikely to drastically alter the HDD market's demand-supply balance in the near term, providing a degree of reassurance to investors.
- 22d agoNEGATIVEWhy Western Digital and Seagate are seeing big stock drops today
Western Digital and Seagate Technology are experiencing significant stock declines due to investor concerns over Toshiba's potential expansion in AI storage product manufacturing. This anticipated increase in supply could erode the current strong pricing power enjoyed by both Western Digital and Seagate. The market is reacting to the prospect of intensified competition and potential margin compression, signaling a bearish outlook for these storage solution providers.
- 8/27/2026POSITIVESanDisk +5% pre-mercato: l'allerta memoria di Nvidia può estendere il rally?
Western Digital Corporation (NASDAQ: WDC) shares surged nearly 5% in pre-market trading following Nvidia's earnings report, which signaled an unexpected positive outlook for memory suppliers. Nvidia's CFO indicated that memory shortages are constraining their ability to meet demand, putting pressure on gross margins. This situation, however, could present an opportunity for WDC as Nvidia anticipates continued demand acceleration. The news suggests that the memory supply constraints, while challenging for Nvidia, may translate into improved pricing power and demand for WDC's products, potentially extending its recent rally.
- 8/14/2026POSITIVEPerché le azioni SanDisk salgono del 6% oggi, oltre +30% nella settimana
Western Digital Corporation (formerly SanDisk) shares surged approximately 6% on Friday, extending their weekly gains to around 34%. This rally follows the company's Investor Day, where management presented ambitious financial targets and detailed how AI-driven demand is poised to reshape the NAND flash memory market. Analysts are increasingly optimistic, citing Western Digital's growing exposure to AI infrastructure and its strategic shift towards long-term supply agreements. The positive sentiment from Wall Street underscores confidence in the company's long-term strategy, particularly its positioning within the burgeoning AI sector.
- 7/1/2026NEGATIVESandisk’s and Micron’s stocks sink as the rotation trade builds, but supply shortages should limit losses
Western Digital Corporation (WDC) and Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) experienced significant stock declines as investors shifted towards a 'rotation trade' strategy. Despite the immediate downturn, analysts suggest that persistent supply shortages in the memory chip market are likely to mitigate the extent of these losses. Bank of America highlighted that a substantial portion of Western Digital's future revenue may stem from new business model contracts, which are expected to offer improved revenue visibility. This suggests a potential underlying strength despite current market sentiment.