Boeing Co (BA)
Fair ValueFundamental
41
Price
$188.35
Market Cap
$151.86B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Boeing designs, manufactures, and sells commercial jet aircraft (737, 767, 777, 787 families) to airlines worldwide; develops and produces military aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and satellite systems for the U.S. Department of Defense and allied governments; and provides maintenance, technical support, spare parts, training, and logistics services for both commercial and defense aircraft across its global installed base of over 10,000 airplanes.
How it makes money
Commercial Airplanes sells aircraft on firm orders with fixed prices adjusted for inflation over multi-year delivery periods; Defense, Space & Security generates revenue primarily from fixed-price development and production contracts with the U.S. government and foreign military customers; Global Services earns revenue from customer service agreements, spare parts sales, training programs, maintenance support, and technical upgrades provided over the service lives of aircraft.
Revenue by segment
Researches, develops, and produces military aircraft (F-15, F/A-18, KC-46A tanker, T-7A trainer), space launch systems, satellite systems, and weapons systems for U.S. government and allied nations. Backlog of $64 billion as of end-2024.
Develops and produces commercial jet aircraft in the 737, 767, 777, and 787 families, delivering aircraft to airlines with firm delivery schedules extending years into the future. Backlog of 5,500+ aircraft valued at $435 billion as of end-2024.
Provides aftermarket support services including maintenance and repair, spare parts supply, operator training, technical support, logistics, and aircraft upgrades for both commercial and defense customers on their installed fleet of aircraft.
Competitive moat
Scale · NarrowBoeing benefits from enormous scale advantages in manufacturing and R&D required to design and produce large commercial aircraft and complex defense systems—barriers to entry that protect its duopoly position with Airbus. However, the moat is narrow rather than wide due to intense competition from Airbus (which holds ~60% of large aircraft market share), emerging competition from Chinese manufacturers, and Boeing's recent execution challenges in production quality and cost control on fixed-price contracts. Switching costs favor incumbents—airlines face significant retraining, spare parts, and certification costs when changing aircraft families—but this applies equally to both Boeing and Airbus.
What drives demand
CyclicalBoeing's commercial aircraft business is highly cyclical, tracking global economic growth, airline profitability, and financing availability. Demand rises during economic expansions when airlines expand fleets to meet growing passenger demand, but contracts sharply during recessions or crises when airlines cut capital spending and reduce fleet growth. Fuel prices and geopolitical events (wars, terrorism concerns) also influence airline investment decisions. The defense business is less cyclical but depends on government budgets and geopolitical tensions that drive defense spending.
Key risks
- Fixed-Price Contract Losses on Defense Programs — Boeing recorded $5.4 billion operating loss in Defense, Space & Security in 2024 driven by cost overruns on five major fixed-price development programs (Commercial Crew, KC-46A Tanker, MQ-25, T-7A Red Hawk, and VC-25B). When actual development costs exceed estimated costs, Boeing is required to record reach-forward losses, reducing near-term profitability and cash flow.
- Commercial Airplanes Operating Losses — Commercial Airplanes generated $7.97 billion operating loss despite $22.9 billion in revenue in 2024, driven by production inefficiencies, quality-related rework, supplier disruptions, and the September-November 2024 IAM 751 labor strike which halted commercial aircraft production for two months.
- Supplier Concentration and Production Disruptions — Boeing depends on a large number of sole-source and limited-source suppliers for critical components. Supply chain disruptions, supplier financial difficulties, or quality problems can delay aircraft deliveries and increase costs. Recent supplier issues and production problems have contributed to delivery delays and quality rework.
- High Concentration with U.S. Government Customer — Revenues from the U.S. government (including foreign military sales through the U.S. government) represented 42% of consolidated 2024 revenues. Changes in U.S. defense spending priorities, budget constraints, or geopolitical shifts could materially reduce revenues and profitability.
- Cyclical Commercial Aviation Demand — Commercial aircraft demand depends heavily on airline profitability, aircraft financing availability, fuel prices, economic growth, and geopolitical stability. Economic downturns, fuel price spikes, or geopolitical crises can sharply reduce airline fleet expansion decisions and Boeing deliveries.
- Quality and Safety Issues — Boeing has faced significant quality and safety issues with commercial aircraft production in recent years. Regulatory scrutiny, manufacturing defects, and the need for extensive rework increase costs and can lead to production delays, regulatory corrective actions, or impacts to Boeing's reputation and customer confidence.
Customer concentration
Top customers account for 42% of revenue
The U.S. government (including foreign military sales through the U.S. government) accounted for 42% of Boeing's total consolidated revenues in 2024. On the commercial side, Boeing serves a limited number of major airlines, with concentration varying by aircraft family, but the company does not disclose individual airline revenue percentages in its 10-K filing.
The case for
Buyers argue that Boeing's massive $682 billion commercial aircraft backlog ensures multi-year revenue visibility and production growth as it works through order fulfillment. The Global Services segment is profitable with strong 18.1% operating margins and provides sticky, recurring revenues from its installed base of 10,000+ aircraft. As a duopolist with Airbus in large commercial aircraft, Boeing has durable pricing power. The defense business offers stable, predictable revenues from the U.S. government's sustained spending on military aircraft and space systems. Recent leadership changes (CEO Kelly Ortberg in August 2024) may signal a return to engineering-first priorities and quality focus. With production resuming post-strike and new aircraft derivatives in development, the company has paths to restore profitability in both Commercial Airplanes and Defense segments.
The case against
Sellers fear that Boeing's current execution problems—including $7.97 billion operating losses in Commercial Airplanes and $5.4 billion losses in Defense despite high revenues—reveal structural problems in production quality, cost control, and program management. Fixed-price contracts in the defense business lock Boeing into unsustainable cost structures that can generate years of losses (as seen in KC-46A, T-7A, and Commercial Crew programs). The September-November 2024 labor strike disrupted production and raised wage costs just when margins are already under pressure. Heavy dependence on U.S. government (42% of revenues) creates geopolitical risk and exposes Boeing to political budget cuts. Airbus remains a strong competitor, and Chinese aircraft manufacturers are emerging as long-term threats to Boeing's market share. Recent quality scandals have damaged customer trust, and regulatory oversight is tightening. Even with a large backlog, deteriorating unit economics and persistent execution challenges suggest profitability recovery will be slow and uncertain.
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 21, 2026, shared with all users
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 18, 2026, shared with all users
Named by Boeing in its 10-K as a principal rival of its Defense, Space & Security segment, Lockheed Martin bids against Boeing for the same Pentagon contracts in combat aircraft, missiles and space systems.
Boeing names RTX among its defence competitors: the two compete for US and allied government programmes in missiles, defence electronics and space, alongside RTX's own aerospace systems business.
Cited by Boeing as a leading defence competitor, Northrop Grumman goes head to head with it on military aircraft, strategic missile programmes and satellite systems for the same government customers.
Listed first among the defence rivals Boeing names in its 10-K, General Dynamics competes for the same US defence budget in combat systems, IT services and, through Gulfstream, business aviation.
Airbus is Boeing's direct rival in large commercial jets, selling the A320 and A350 families to the same airlines and lessors that buy the 737 MAX and 787, and it also competes with Boeing in defence and space.
Boeing's 10-K flags "entrants from China" as an aggressive commercial threat: COMAC's C919 targets the same single-aisle market as the 737 MAX, starting with Chinese airlines Boeing used to supply.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$94.00B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$2.44B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$-1.88B
Total Equity
$5.45B
Total Liabilities
$162.78B
Current Ratio
1.14
Interest Coverage
-
Debt/EBITDA
7.36
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$179.24
Current Price
$188.35
Margin of Safety
-5.1%
Fair Value Range
$116.51 - $241.98
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
67.75
ROE
41.0%
P/B Ratio
24.40
P/FCF
-
Gross Margin
4.7%
ROIC
6.5%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
6.5%
WACC
9.1%
ROIC − WACC
-2.6 pp
ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (7)
- ROIC 6.5%
- Current ratio
- ROE 132.9%
- Revenue growth 5Y 8.8%
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 1.49
- Net margin trend 2.6% vs -14.2%
- Piotroski F-Score 6/9
Failed (15)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR -4.11%
- Price CAGR 1.72%
- Gross margin 4.7%
- P/B ratio 24.40
- Debt/equity ratio
- Operating margin 4.9%
- Positive free cash flow
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on tangible assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Earnings surprise, average -75.6%
- Share dilution 40.0%
Unavailable (5)
- P/FCF –
- Dividend payout –
- CapEx intensity
- Interest coverage
- PEG ratio (needs P/E > 0 and growth > 0)
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Issuing new shares, diluting ownership
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Robert K. Ortberg | President, CEO & Director | 65 |
| Mr. Jesus Malave Jr. | Executive VP & CFO | 56 |
| Mr. Brett C. Gerry J.D. | Chief Legal Officer & Executive VP of Global Compliance | 53 |
| Ms. Stephanie F. Pope | Executive VP & President and CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes | 52 |
| Mr. Jeffrey S. Shockey | Executive VP of Government Operations, Global Public Policy & Corporate Strategy | - |
| Mr. Howard E. McKenzie | Chief Engineer and Executive VP of Engineering, Test & Technology | 57 |
| Mr. Eric Hill | Vice President of Investor Relations | - |
| Mr. Tommy Preston Jr. | Chief Compliance Officer & VP of Global Compliance | - |
| Ms. Ann M. Schmidt | Chief Communications & Brand Officer and Senior VP of Communications & Brand | 49 |
| Mr. Brad McMullen | Senior Vice President of Commercial Sales & Marketing | - |
Audit Risk
10
Board Risk
3
Compensation Risk
9
Shareholder Rights Risk
5
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-01-30
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-07-28
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-08-28
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much BA moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 39% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 31.5%
- Volatility 90d
- 31.9%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- 1.23Correlation 0.46
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -26.9%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 2.69%
Earnings reactions
How BA moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
Oct 27, 2026 · In 3 days · Before the open
EPS estimate: -0.20Revenue estimate: $24.4B
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 3.6% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 6, down 6 (out of 12).
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28, 2026 | Before the open | -0.31 | -0.76 | -142.1% | +1.2% | +4.8% | +10.4% |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Before the open | -0.86 | -0.20 | +76.7% | +3.6% | +5.5% | +5.3% |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Before the open | -0.40 | -1.12 | -179.1% | -2.4% | -1.6% | -6.2% |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Before the open | -4.73 | -7.47 | -57.9% | -0.9% | -4.4% | -11.3% |
| Jul 29, 2025 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +1.3% | -4.4% | -6.0% |
| Apr 23, 2025 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +7.1% | +6.1% | +12.0% |
| Jan 28, 2025 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +3.5% | +1.5% | +0.4% |
| Oct 23, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +0.1% | -1.8% | -4.3% |
| Jul 31, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +1.6% | +2.0% | -11.7% |
| Apr 24, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +4.3% | -2.9% | -0.8% |
| Jan 31, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +2.2% | +5.3% | +4.1% |
| Oct 25, 2023 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +2.0% | -2.5% | +2.4% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on BA and what the price did next.
- 10/21/2026PositiveFaa verifica il 737 Max 10, le consegne dai primi mesi del 2027
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 10/15/2026PositiveBoeing’s Analysts Are All Bullish Despite $100 Oil, FAA Delays
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 10/2/2026PositiveFAA Says Boeing 737 Max Computer Glitch Is Not Safety Issue
- +1 day
- -1.1%
- +3 days
- -3.7%
- 9/30/2026PositiveAzioni Boeing salgono dopo contratto da $20B con Marina USA; UBS: vendite eccessive
- +1 day
- -0.7%
- +3 days
- +2.4%
- 9/30/2026PositiveBoeing was at risk of losing all fighter-jet production altogether. Now the stock is up on a new Navy contract.
- +1 day
- -0.7%
- +3 days
- +2.4%
- 9/24/2026NegativeBoeing perde il catalizzatore cinese, ma gli investitori temono una minaccia più grande
- +1 day
- -1.5%
- +3 days
- -7.5%
- 8/17/2026NegativeLe azioni Boeing scendono del 2% oggi: ecco perché
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 8/14/2026PositiveBoeing Analysts Turn Most Bullish Since 2022 on ‘Momentum Shift’
- +1 day
- +0.8%
- +3 days
- -1.8%
- 8/3/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
- +1 day
- -0.2%
- +3 days
- -2.0%
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for BA.
- 3d agoPOSITIVEFaa verifica il 737 Max 10, le consegne dai primi mesi del 2027
The US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has certified the Boeing 737 MAX 10, paving the way for deliveries to commence in early 2027. This certification is a significant milestone for Boeing, which has faced extensive scrutiny and delays following previous incidents with its 737 MAX aircraft. The approval is expected to boost Boeing's order book and revenue streams, particularly as airlines have placed substantial orders for this model. Investors will be watching the ramp-up of production and delivery schedules closely.
- 9d agoPOSITIVEBoeing’s Analysts Are All Bullish Despite $100 Oil, FAA Delays
Boeing Co. shares experienced a strong start to 2026, surging 16% in the initial three weeks, indicating investor confidence in CEO Kelly Ortberg's turnaround efforts. Despite headwinds from $100 oil prices and FAA-related delays, analysts remain largely bullish on the aerospace giant. This sustained optimism suggests that the market believes Boeing is effectively navigating operational challenges and is poised for recovery, potentially leading to further upside for the stock as these issues are resolved and production ramps up.
- 22d agoPOSITIVEFAA Says Boeing 737 Max Computer Glitch Is Not Safety Issue
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has concluded that a software issue affecting certain Boeing 737 Max flight computers does not pose a safety risk. This determination by the regulatory body is a significant positive development for Boeing, as it removes a potential hurdle for the aircraft's operations and production. The news led to an immediate uptick in Boeing's share price, signaling renewed investor confidence in the company's ability to manage technical challenges without compromising safety standards. This resolution is crucial for restoring market sentiment and supporting the 737 Max program's ongoing recovery.
- 24d agoPOSITIVEAzioni Boeing salgono dopo contratto da $20B con Marina USA; UBS: vendite eccessive
Boeing shares surged approximately 3% in pre-market trading following the announcement of a significant contract exceeding $20 billion from the U.S. Pentagon and Navy. This long-term agreement is for the development of Boeing's next-generation F/A-XX fighter jet, intended to replace the U.S. Navy's F/A-18 Super Hornet fleet. The new aircraft will feature an open mission systems architecture, advanced mission-critical systems, and enhanced operational range and capabilities. This contract solidifies Boeing's position in next-generation fighter programs for the U.S. military, marking a substantial win for the aerospace giant.
- 24d agoPOSITIVEBoeing was at risk of losing all fighter-jet production altogether. Now the stock is up on a new Navy contract.
Boeing shares climbed nearly 3% in premarket trading following the U.S. Navy's selection of the aerospace giant for its next-generation fighter jet development program. This significant contract award alleviates concerns about potential loss of fighter-jet production capabilities for Boeing. The news provides a strong positive catalyst, underscoring the company's critical role in defense manufacturing and potentially boosting investor confidence in its future revenue streams and technological leadership.
- 9/24/2026NEGATIVEBoeing perde il catalizzatore cinese, ma gli investitori temono una minaccia più grande
Boeing's stock (BA) faces headwinds as hopes for a new Chinese aircraft order from the US-China summit diminish. While the company still has a substantial order backlog of $715 billion as of June, the immediate geopolitical catalyst has faded. Investors are now more concerned about Boeing's ability to execute on its existing orders and convert its backlog into cash flow. This shift in focus from potential new deals to operational execution introduces uncertainty, potentially impacting near-term revenue and profitability projections.
- 8/18/2026NEUTRALBoeing-Lockheed Space Venture Inks $1.5 Billion Private Bonds
Boeing Co. and Lockheed Martin Corp.'s United Launch Alliance (ULA) is finalizing a $1.5 billion private bond offering, significantly upsized from its initial $500 million target. This debt issuance aims to fund ULA's ongoing operations and potential future projects, including the development of new launch vehicles. While the bond deal itself is a financing activity, its success in attracting substantial private investment indicates confidence in ULA's long-term prospects. For investors in Boeing, this news is primarily informational regarding a subsidiary's financing strategy rather than a direct indicator of immediate stock performance.
- 8/17/2026NEGATIVELe azioni Boeing scendono del 2% oggi: ecco perché
Boeing shares fell 2% on Monday following a temporary grounding of the U.S. Army's Apache helicopter fleet. The grounding was initiated after a fatal incident near Fort Hood, Texas, which resulted in the deaths of two soldiers. The Army stated the suspension will remain in effect until the root cause of the accident is better understood. Boeing manufactures the AH-64 Apache, and while the company has not yet commented, this incident raises concerns about potential production delays and further scrutiny of its military aircraft safety protocols, impacting investor sentiment.
- 8/14/2026POSITIVEBoeing Analysts Turn Most Bullish Since 2022 on ‘Momentum Shift’
Wall Street analysts have reached their most optimistic stance on Boeing Co. since 2022, signaling a significant 'momentum shift' in the company's turnaround efforts. This heightened optimism reflects increasing confidence in Boeing's operational improvements and future prospects. For investors, this sentiment shift suggests a potential positive re-evaluation of the stock, possibly driven by expectations of improved production rates, enhanced safety protocols, and stronger financial performance in the coming quarters.