Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BNY)
OvervaluedFundamental
58
Price
$145.27
Market Cap
$98.96B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Bank of New York Mellon is a global financial services company that acts as an essential infrastructure partner for institutions moving capital. The company provides asset servicing, wealth management, and investment management services to asset managers, asset owners, broker-dealers, wealth firms, issuers, and affluent clients. As of December 31, 2025, BNY oversees $59.3 trillion in assets under custody and/or administration and $2.2 trillion in assets under management. The company operates globally across 35+ countries and serves over 90% of the Fortune 100 and nearly all of the top 100 banks globally.
How it makes money
BNY generates revenue primarily through fee-based services on assets under management and administration, combined with net interest income. Fee revenue in 2025 increased 6%, driven by net new business, higher client activity, increased market values, and favorable currency impacts. Net interest income rose 15%, primarily from reinvestment of maturing investment securities at higher yields and balance sheet growth, partially offset by deposit margin compression. Investment and other revenue contributed an additional $757 million in 2025.
Revenue by segment
Provides asset servicing, clearing, settlement, and payment services for institutional clients globally. Includes custody services, payment and clearing, and settlement services for securities transactions. Revenue of $9.73 billion in 2025, up 8% year-over-year.
Delivers data, analytics, and digital platforms serving capital markets participants, including traders, risk managers, and wealth professionals. Provides platforms for trading, treasury management, foreign exchange, and wealth advisory services. Revenue of $7.0 billion in 2025, up 12% year-over-year.
Provides investment management, advisory, and wealth management services to institutional and individual clients. Manages assets and provides discretionary and non-discretionary portfolio management. Revenue of $3.258 billion in 2025, comprising $3.049 billion in fee revenue and $174 million in net interest income.
Competitive moat
Scale · WideBNY's moat stems from extraordinary scale and systemic importance in global finance. Only a handful of institutions can handle the custody, clearing, and settlement of trillions of dollars in securities. The company clears approximately 50% of U.S. government securities transactions and operates in over 35 countries, creating formidable barriers to entry. Competitors would need to invest billions to replicate the infrastructure, regulatory licenses, and client relationships. The 240-year brand heritage reinforces institutional trust. Fintech competitors can offer niche services but cannot replicate the systemic reach required for institutional-grade custody and settlement.
What drives demand
Moderately cyclicalBNY's business demonstrates moderate cyclicality. Asset servicing and custody—the company's largest segments—generate stable, recurring fee revenue relatively insensitive to market cycles, as institutions continue to require custody services regardless of market conditions. However, wealth management, trading volumes, and advisory services are more sensitive to equity market performance and investor confidence. Market downturns reduce the value of AUC/A and may trigger client redemptions, depressing fee income. Conversely, bull markets expand both valuations and new client inflows. Net interest income adds a defensive element, though it is subject to interest rate cycles.
Key risks
- Interest Rate and Net Interest Income Compression — BNY's net interest income, which increased 15% in 2025, is dependent on interest rate levels and the yield curve. A prolonged rate-cutting cycle would compress the spread between earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities, pressuring profitability. This represents a material headwind if the Federal Reserve cuts rates significantly in response to economic slowdown.
- Intense Competition and Fee Compression — BNY faces pricing pressures from traditional competitors and non-bank financial technology firms that are not subject to the same regulatory constraints. Larger and more geographically diverse institutions, along with fintech startups offering competitive pricing, may erode BNY's fee revenue over time. The company has experienced, and anticipates continuing to experience, pricing pressures that may reduce the price charged for products and services.
- Assets Under Custody Market Dependency — BNY's fee revenue is directly tied to the value of assets under custody and administration ($59.3 trillion as of December 31, 2025). A significant market correction or decline in global equity and fixed-income markets would immediately reduce fee revenue, as would net outflows of client assets due to competitive pressures or market events.
- Geopolitical and Economic Uncertainties — Rising geopolitical tensions, including US-China trade disputes, the Ukraine conflict, and Middle East instability, create uncertainty for global capital flows. Recession risk persists, and fiscal policy implementation uncertainty could impact trading volumes and client activity levels. These macroeconomic headwinds could reduce demand for BNY's services and volatility in earnings.
- Regulatory and Technology Risk — BNY operates in a heavily regulated environment and faces evolving regulatory requirements across multiple jurisdictions. Emerging technologies like blockchain, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and digital assets present both opportunities and uncertainties. Regulatory treatment of stablecoins and digital assets remains unclear, and fintech companies offering similar services face less regulation, creating competitive disadvantages for BNY despite its superior infrastructure.
Customer concentration
BNY's customer base is highly diversified across institutional clients globally. The company serves over 90% of the Fortune 100, nearly all top 100 banks globally, and over 90% of the top 100 pension plans. The filing does not disclose a specific percentage for the largest customers' revenue contribution, indicating that no single customer represents a material concentration risk. The business is geographic-concentrated to developed financial markets (United States and Europe), but not customer-concentrated.
The case for
Buyers argue that BNY is exceptionally well-positioned in a capital-intensive financial system that requires trustworthy, large-scale infrastructure. The company delivered record 2025 revenue of $20.1 billion and net income of $5.3 billion with a return on tangible common equity of 26%. Net new business remains strong, and the company is a dominant player in digital assets, serving 80% of digital asset exchange-traded products and administering 50% of tokenized funds globally. BNY's investments in AI, including its proprietary tool Eliza, position the company to benefit from increased automation and efficiency gains. The company returned $5 billion to shareholders in 2025 through dividends and buybacks. Its fortress balance sheet, regulatory licenses, and systemic importance create a moat that is difficult for competitors to breach, offering defensive earnings through market cycles.
The case against
Sellers fear that BNY's core business model is under structural pressure. Fee revenue is fundamentally dependent on the total value of assets under custody, which is subject to market corrections, client flows, and competitive attrition. A significant market downturn would immediately compress revenues. Net interest income, which rose 15% in 2025 from higher rates, is at risk if the Federal Reserve enters a sustained rate-cutting cycle. Competition from fintech firms and niche custody providers is intensifying, and BNY's investments in AI and digital assets lack transparent ROI metrics and may dilute shareholder returns. The company's high debt load (relative to equity) limits financial flexibility. Regulatory uncertainty around digital assets and cryptocurrencies poses execution risk on BNY's growth initiatives. At current valuations (trailing P/E of 16.2x), the market may be pricing in optimistic growth assumptions that could disappoint if macroeconomic headwinds intensify.
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 21, 2026, shared with all users
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 18, 2026, shared with all users
State Street is the other large US custody bank, selling the same custody, fund administration and investment-servicing mandates to the same institutional asset managers, pension funds and sovereign clients.
Northern Trust competes on both of BNY's core fronts — asset servicing for institutional investors and wealth management for wealthy families — though on a smaller scale.
JPMorgan's Securities Services division bids for the same global custody, fund accounting and collateral-management mandates, and its clearing arm competes with BNY's Pershing.
Citi's Securities Services business is one of the four largest global custodians and is BNY's main rival where clients need custody and sub-custody across many emerging markets.
Schwab Advisor Services competes head-on with BNY's Pershing unit for the custody and clearing business of independent financial advisers and broker-dealers in the United States.
Fidelity's institutional arm provides custody and clearing to thousands of registered investment advisers, the same client base Pershing serves, and it is privately held.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$21.37B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$6.30B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$5.18B
Total Equity
$44.31B
Total Liabilities
$427.49B
Current Ratio
-
Interest Coverage
0.90
Debt/EBITDA
-
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$117.30
Current Price
$145.27
Margin of Safety
-23.9%
Fair Value Range
$77.81 - $156.78
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
16.93
ROE
12.5%
P/B Ratio
2.21
P/FCF
61.91
Gross Margin
-
ROIC
-
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
-
WACC
10.4%
ROIC − WACC
-
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (13)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR 7.05%
- Price CAGR 11.26%
- P/B ratio 2.21
- Operating margin 22.1%
- Positive free cash flow
- Low reliance on intangibles
- ROE 14.8%
- Earnings surprise, average 8.1%
- PEG ratio 1.09
- Share dilution -4.0%
- Net margin trend 29.5% vs 25.8%
- Piotroski F-Score 5/9
Failed (8)
- P/FCF 61.91
- Debt/equity ratio
- CapEx intensity
- Interest coverage
- Return on tangible assets
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 0.57
Unavailable (6)
- ROIC –
- Gross margin –
- Dividend payout –
- Current ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- Revenue growth 5Y
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
Moderate: some gap between profits and cash
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Institutional Holdings
No institutional filings reported for this company.
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Robin Antony Vince | President, CEO & Chairman of the Board | 54 |
| Mr. Dermot William McDonogh | Senior Executive VP & CFO | 61 |
| Mr. Jose Manuel Minaya | Senior EVP and Global Head of BNY Investments & Wealth | 53 |
| Mr. J. Kevin McCarthy J.D. | Senior EVP & General Counsel | 60 |
| Ms. Jayee Xu Koffey | Senior EVP & Chief Global Affairs Officer | 44 |
| Mr. Alejandro Perez | Chief Operating Officer | 53 |
| Ms. Leigh-Ann Russell | Chief Information Officer & Global Head of Engineering | 50 |
| Mr. Marius Merz | Head of Investor Relations & Corporate Development and Co-Head of Business Finance | - |
| Mr. Brian A. Ruane | Senior EVP & Global Head of Clearance and Collateral Management, Credit Services & Corporate Trust | - |
| Mr. John M. Roy | Executive VP & Chief Operating Officer of Corporate Treasury | - |
Audit Risk
1
Board Risk
7
Compensation Risk
10
Shareholder Rights Risk
3
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-02-25
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-07-31
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-10-15
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much BNY moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 11% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 20.2%
- Volatility 90d
- 21.7%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- 0.74Correlation 0.44
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -16.5%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 2.19%
Earnings reactions
How BNY moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
Jan 15, 2027 · In 83 days · Before the open
EPS estimate: 2.35Revenue estimate: $5.7B
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 2.1% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 8, down 4 (out of 12).
- Of the 5 releases that beat estimates, the stock fell the next day after 1.
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Before the open | 2.26 | 2.37 | +4.8% | +1.6% | +3.2% | +6.0% |
| Jul 15, 2026 | During the session | 2.24 | 2.46 | +9.6% | +1.3% | +5.1% | +2.8% |
| Apr 16, 2026 | During the session | 1.95 | 2.25 | +15.5% | +2.1% | +2.2% | +3.0% |
| Jan 13, 2026 | During the session | 2.00 | 2.08 | +3.8% | +0.5% | +1.9% | 0.0% |
| Oct 16, 2025 | During the session | 1.79 | 1.91 | +6.8% | -1.1% | -2.0% | -1.7% |
| Jul 15, 2025 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -1.6% | -0.1% | +3.5% |
| Apr 11, 2025 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -3.9% | +1.4% | -0.4% |
| Jan 15, 2025 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +4.2% | +8.0% | +11.0% |
| Oct 11, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +1.0% | -0.4% | +4.4% |
| Jul 12, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +2.7% | +5.2% | +3.3% |
| Apr 16, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +0.5% | -2.0% | +3.8% |
| Jan 12, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +4.3% | +4.0% | +4.4% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on BNY and what the price did next.
- 3/3/2026PositiveBNY CIO Leigh-Ann Russell on Upskilling Employees with AI, Internal AI Platform
- +1 day
- -0.3%
- +3 days
- -1.1%
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for BNY.
- 3/3/2026POSITIVEBNY CIO Leigh-Ann Russell on Upskilling Employees with AI, Internal AI Platform
Leigh-Ann Russell, CIO and Global Head of Engineering at The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BNY Mellon), recently outlined the company's strategy for integrating artificial intelligence (AI) and upskilling its employees. Speaking at the Bloomberg Invest conference in New York, Russell highlighted the importance of an internal AI platform and staff training programs. This initiative underscores BNY Mellon's commitment to technological innovation, a crucial factor for maintaining a competitive edge in the rapidly evolving financial sector. Investors should view this move as a positive signal, indicating forward-thinking management aiming to enhance operational efficiency and drive long-term growth through the strategic adoption of cutting-edge technologies.