Capital One Financial Corp (COF)
OvervaluedFundamental
69
Price
$201.34
Market Cap
$126.79B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Capital One Financial Corporation is a national commercial bank headquartered in McLean, Virginia, that operates as a financial services company primarily focused on consumer and commercial credit. The company serves over 100 million consumer relationships through its credit card, auto lending, and banking operations, and commercial relationships through its capital markets and treasury services.
How it makes money
Capital One earns revenue primarily through net interest income on credit card balances, auto loans, and other consumer and commercial loans, combined with substantial non-interest income from interchange fees on credit card transactions, annual and late fees, and service charges. The business model centers on the credit card business as the principal economic engine.
Revenue by segment
Domestic consumer and small business credit card lending, along with international card operations in the United Kingdom and Canada. Earns revenue from interest on card balances, interchange fees from cardholders' purchases, and annual and late fees.
Deposit-gathering and lending activities for consumers, small businesses, and national auto lending operations. Includes money market accounts, savings accounts, checking accounts, and consumer auto loans, both direct and indirect.
Lending, deposit gathering, capital markets, and treasury management services to commercial real estate and commercial and industrial customers. Provides term loans, revolving lines of credit, and specialized products.
Competitive moat
Patents and licences · NarrowCapital One's competitive advantage rests primarily on data analytics and technology infrastructure. The company has invested heavily in cloud-based systems (100% AWS migration completed in 2020), machine learning for risk assessment and fraud detection, and personalized credit underwriting. These capabilities enable superior risk pricing and customer targeting in the credit card and auto lending segments. However, this technology-driven moat is not insurmountable, as competitors can develop similar capabilities. The pending acquisition of Discover would add a closed-loop payments network, potentially narrowing reliance on interchange economics.
What drives demand
CyclicalCapital One's revenues are notably cyclical, moving with consumer spending and credit demand across the economic cycle. Credit card originations and utilization rates rise sharply during economic expansions and employment growth, as consumers increase spending and balance transfers. Conversely, recessions reduce consumer confidence and income, leading to lower credit demand and higher charge-offs. The company's exposure to subprime and near-prime consumers (47% of auto loans and nearly a third of credit card loans to borrowers with FICO scores below 660) amplifies cyclicality.
Key risks
- Economic Downturn and Credit Risk — Capital One is highly exposed to consumer credit risk, particularly among lower-income borrowers. Credit card net charge-off rates reached 4.73% in mid-2024, approaching levels not seen since 2011. Economic downturns lead to reduced consumer spending, higher unemployment, and increased loan defaults, which directly impact the company's largest revenue segment (credit cards at 66% of revenue).
- Interest Rate and Net Interest Margin Risk — Capital One's net interest margin expanded 25 basis points to 6.88% in 2024, benefiting from higher rate environments. However, if interest rates decline, the company's borrowing costs may not decrease proportionally, eroding the net interest margin and reducing profitability on the substantial loan portfolio of $327.8 billion.
- Regulatory and Policy Risk — Capital One faces regulatory pressures on credit card interest rates and terms, as well as capital and liquidity requirements. Proposed rate caps on credit card interest would directly impact the company's most profitable business segment. Additionally, regulatory changes and enforcement actions could limit business activities or require significant capital allocation.
- Cybersecurity and Data Protection — As a financial services company holding sensitive customer data and processing billions in transactions, Capital One faces persistent cybersecurity threats. A significant data breach could result in regulatory fines, customer attrition, reputational damage, and litigation.
Customer concentration
Capital One operates through millions of individual consumer relationships as a direct lender and card issuer, with revenues derived from millions of small transactions and borrowers rather than a few large clients. The company does not disclose any customers representing more than 10% of total revenue, indicating that customer concentration is not a material risk factor.
The case for
Buyers argue that Capital One possesses a best-in-class technology platform in the financial services industry through its complete cloud migration and advanced data analytics capabilities, which enable superior risk pricing and underwriting in credit cards and auto lending. The company's 100+ million customer relationships, built through aggressive growth in underserved segments, create a large and sticky customer base with significant cross-sell opportunities. The pending acquisition of Discover will add a proprietary closed-loop payments network, reducing reliance on interchange economics from third-party networks and creating additional competitive advantages. Capital One's track record of profitable lending to subprime and near-prime consumers, combined with its operational efficiency, positions the company to earn returns above its cost of capital across economic cycles.
The case against
Sellers fear that Capital One's heavy concentration in consumer credit, particularly credit cards (66% of revenue) and lending to lower-income borrowers, exposes the company to severe earnings volatility during recessions. Credit card charge-off rates have already climbed significantly from pre-pandemic levels, and further economic deterioration could push losses to levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis. Capital One also faces structural headwinds from regulatory pressure on credit card interest rates, which would directly reduce profitability on its most lucrative segment. The company's profitability depends on continued access to cheap funding and stable credit quality; any disruption to either could substantially impair earnings. Additionally, the pending Discover acquisition integrates regulatory risk and execution risk, while the closed-loop network advantage may not materialize as expected in a competitive payments market.
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 21, 2026, shared with all users
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 18, 2026, shared with all users
Since buying Discover's networks, Capital One is the other US company that both issues cards and runs its own payment network, competing with American Express for the same consumer and small-business cardholders and for merchant acceptance.
The largest US card issuer by purchase volume, Chase competes head-on with Capital One for mainstream and travel-rewards cardholders and, through its branch and digital bank, for the same consumer deposits.
Synchrony lends to the same broad, often non-prime American cardholder through retailer co-brand and private-label programmes, and funds itself with the same kind of online savings deposits Capital One collects.
Citi is one of the top US card issuers and bids against Capital One for the same large co-brand partnerships with airlines and retailers, as well as for everyday revolving cardholders.
Ally is Capital One's closest rival in the two halves of its Consumer Banking segment: car loans written through dealerships and branchless, high-rate deposit accounts.
Bread Financial issues store and co-brand cards to the same non-prime US consumers Capital One built its card book on, and gathers direct online deposits to fund them.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$62.02B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$10.52B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$26.14B
Total Equity
$113.62B
Total Liabilities
$555.39B
Current Ratio
-
Interest Coverage
0.26
Debt/EBITDA
-
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$160.18
Current Price
$201.34
Margin of Safety
-25.7%
Fair Value Range
$104.12 - $216.24
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
11.69
ROE
2.2%
P/B Ratio
1.09
P/FCF
4.16
Gross Margin
-
ROIC
-
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
-
WACC
12.4%
ROIC − WACC
-
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (15)
- EPS shows upward trend
- Price CAGR 8.34%
- P/FCF 4.16
- P/B ratio 1.09
- Operating margin 21.0%
- Positive free cash flow
- CapEx intensity
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Undervalued)
- ROE 9.7%
- Earnings surprise, average 7.6%
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 2.99
- Net margin trend 17.0% vs 0.0%
- Piotroski F-Score 5/9
Failed (6)
- EPS CAGR 0.08%
- Debt/equity ratio
- Interest coverage
- Return on tangible assets
- Revenue growth 5Y 4.4%
- Share dilution 48.5%
Unavailable (6)
- ROIC –
- Gross margin –
- Dividend payout –
- Current ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- PEG ratio (needs P/E > 0 and growth > 0)
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Issuing new shares, diluting ownership
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Richard D. Fairbank | Founder, Chairman, CEO & President | 74 |
| Mr. Andrew M. Young | Chief Financial Officer | 50 |
| Mr. Matthew W. Cooper | President of Discover Integration, General Counsel & Secretary | 53 |
| Mr. Frank G. LaPrade III, J.D. | Chief Enterprise Services Officer & Chief of Staff to the CEO | 58 |
| Mr. Mark Daniel Mouadeb | President of Card | 41 |
| Mr. Timothy P. Golden | Senior VP, Chief Accounting Officer & Controller | 53 |
| Mr. Robert M. Alexander | Chief Information Officer | 60 |
| Mr. Danielle Dietz | Managing Vice President of Investor Relations | - |
| Ms. Kaitlin Burek Haggerty | Chief Human Resources Officer | 41 |
| Mr. Sanjiv Yajnik | President of Financial Services | 68 |
Audit Risk
3
Board Risk
8
Compensation Risk
8
Shareholder Rights Risk
2
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-02-19
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-07-28
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-10-20
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much COF moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 22% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 21.7%
- Volatility 90d
- 25.8%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- 1.28Correlation 0.52
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -31.7%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 2.51%
Earnings reactions
How COF moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
Jan 19, 2027 · In 87 days · Time not known
EPS estimate: 4.76Revenue estimate: $16.6B
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 2.4% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 9, down 3 (out of 12).
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2026 | After the close | 5.50 | 6.69 | +21.6% | +2.4% | +2.5% | n/a |
| Jul 21, 2026 | After the close | 4.80 | 5.81 | +21.0% | +0.6% | -2.4% | +3.0% |
| Apr 21, 2026 | After the close | 4.60 | 4.42 | -3.9% | 0.0% | -1.5% | -5.1% |
| Jan 22, 2026 | After the close | 4.16 | 3.86 | -7.1% | -4.8% | -7.6% | -6.7% |
| Oct 21, 2025 | After the close | 4.41 | 5.95 | +34.9% | +4.6% | +1.5% | +1.8% |
| Jul 22, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +4.8% | +0.9% | -1.7% |
| Apr 22, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +4.0% | +3.7% | +7.6% |
| Jan 21, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +1.8% | +4.0% | +5.1% |
| Oct 24, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +7.2% | +5.2% | +6.2% |
| Jul 23, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -1.3% | +0.6% | +4.6% |
| Apr 25, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -0.6% | +0.2% | -2.8% |
| Jan 25, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0.0% | +4.7% | +1.5% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on COF and what the price did next.
- 7/21/2026PositiveCapital One Profit Beats Estimates as Loan-Loss Provisions Drop
- +1 day
- -2.2%
- +3 days
- -0.4%
- 4/22/2026NegativeCapital One increases provision for bad-debt expenses as earnings miss Wall Street consensus
- +1 day
- -2.5%
- +3 days
- -6.9%
- 4/21/2026NegativeCapital One Boosts Provision for Bad Loans, Misses Estimates
- +1 day
- -2.5%
- +3 days
- -6.9%
- 4/13/2026PositiveCapital One Financial, Amazon, Nvidia And More On CNBC's 'Final Trades'
- +1 day
- +1.4%
- +3 days
- +2.2%
- 3/23/2026PositiveCapital One Stock Gains After Judge Dismisses Trump Lawsuit
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 3/11/2026PositiveHere's How Capital One Financial Beats The Market From Here
- +1 day
- -1.0%
- +3 days
- +0.4%
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for COF.
- 8/4/2026NEUTRALCapital One had 300 Trump accounts — then its money-laundering team stepped in
Capital One Financial Corporation has clarified that the closure of approximately 300 accounts associated with Donald Trump was the result of a routine, months-long anti-money laundering (AML) review, rather than political motivations. This explanation, detailed in a bank filing, aims to address potential speculation surrounding the account closures. While the specific details of the AML review are not public, the bank's statement emphasizes its adherence to regulatory compliance and internal risk management protocols. Investors will monitor Capital One's ongoing compliance efforts and any potential impact on its reputation or operational costs.
- 7/21/2026POSITIVECapital One Profit Beats Estimates as Loan-Loss Provisions Drop
Capital One Financial Corp. reported a profit in the second quarter, surpassing analyst expectations. This positive turn was primarily driven by a significant reduction in loan-loss provisions, which were lower than the consensus estimates. The company, a leading US credit-card lender, demonstrated improved financial health by requiring less capital to be set aside for potential defaults. This outcome suggests better-than-expected credit quality within its loan portfolio and potentially a more favorable economic outlook for its customer base, which is a strong signal for investors.
- 4/22/2026NEGATIVECapital One increases provision for bad-debt expenses as earnings miss Wall Street consensus
Capital One Financial Corporation reported a significant 72% year-over-year increase in its provisions for credit losses, leading to earnings that missed Wall Street's consensus expectations. This rise in bad-debt provisions signals potential deterioration in loan portfolio quality and increased risk for the bank. Investors will be closely watching the bank's future guidance and its ability to manage these growing credit risks, as this trend could impact profitability and capital adequacy in the coming quarters.
- 4/21/2026NEUTRALCapital One Finl Q1 2026 Earnings Call: Complete Transcript
Capital One Financial Corporation has released the complete transcript of its Q1 2026 Earnings Call, dated April 21, 2026. While the transcript provides detailed insights into the company's performance, strategic discussions, and outlook, it does not contain new financial results or forward-looking guidance that would immediately impact its stock price. Investors are advised to review the transcript for a deeper understanding of management's commentary on market conditions, operational efficiency, and future growth drivers.
- 4/21/2026NEGATIVECapital One Boosts Provision for Bad Loans, Misses Estimates
Capital One Financial Corp. reported first-quarter results that fell short of Wall Street expectations, with a notable increase in provisions for bad loans. This move indicates a more cautious outlook on credit quality and potential future defaults. The company's profit miss suggests underlying pressures within its lending portfolio, which could impact future profitability and investor sentiment. For shareholders, this news signals potential headwinds and a need to reassess the company's risk exposure and earnings trajectory.
- 4/13/2026POSITIVECapital One Financial, Amazon, Nvidia And More On CNBC's 'Final Trades'
Analysts express strong optimism regarding Capital One Financial's upcoming earnings report, positioning it as a key investment opportunity. This positive sentiment extends to other major tech players, with Amazon and Nvidia also highlighted as top expert picks. The focus on Capital One suggests anticipation of robust financial performance, potentially driven by strong loan growth or improved net interest margins. For investors, this news indicates a favorable outlook for the financial sector, with specific confidence placed in Capital One's ability to outperform.
- 3/23/2026POSITIVECapital One Stock Gains After Judge Dismisses Trump Lawsuit
Capital One Financial shares experienced a notable uptick on Monday following the dismissal of a lawsuit filed by former President Trump and his business entities. The legal challenge, which had cast a shadow over the company's operations, was thrown out by a judge, removing a significant overhang. This development is viewed positively by investors, suggesting a reduction in potential legal liabilities and a clearer path forward for the financial institution. The stock's positive reaction indicates renewed confidence in Capital One's stability and future prospects.
- 3/12/2026NEUTRALCapital One: A Strong Contender in the Banking Sector?
Capital One is being analyzed as a potential investment opportunity within the banking sector, with a focus on the implications of its recent acquisition for investors. While the article poses a question about its strength, it does not provide specific financial data or performance metrics to confirm a positive or negative outlook. The acquisition's impact remains to be detailed, making this a preliminary assessment rather than a definitive performance review. Further analysis of the acquisition's strategic fit and financial outcomes is required to determine its true market position and investor value.
- 3/11/2026POSITIVEHere's How Capital One Financial Beats The Market From Here
Capital One Financial's acquisition of Discover Financial Services represents a significant strategic shift, creating a formidable competitor in the U.S. credit card landscape. This merger is expected to unlock substantial synergies and enhance Capital One's market position, potentially leading to improved profitability and a stronger competitive moat. Investors should monitor the integration process and the realization of projected cost savings and revenue enhancements. The combined entity is poised to challenge established players and capture greater market share, signaling a positive outlook for shareholders.