American Express Co (AXP)
OvervaluedFundamental
72
Price
$313.22
Market Cap
$218.54B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
American Express is a global payments and premium lifestyle company built around an integrated, "closed-loop" payments platform. It issues credit and charge cards directly to consumers, small businesses and large corporations, acquires and settles transactions for merchants, and operates its own card network across roughly 110 countries, giving it a direct relationship with both the cardholder and the merchant in a single transaction.
How it makes money
The company states it focuses on generating revenue primarily by driving spending on its cards, and secondarily through finance charges and fees. In practice this means discount revenue charged to merchants on each transaction, net card fees (annual membership fees), interest income from Card Member loans that revolve a balance, and service and other fees (e.g. travel, insurance products). Because a large share of revenue scales with billed business rather than with lending, it behaves more like a transaction-volume business than a pure lender.
Revenue by segment
Issues proprietary charge and credit cards to U.S. consumers, along with related lending, rewards and travel/lifestyle services.
Issues corporate and small-business cards and provides expense management, financing and B2B payment products to companies of all sizes.
Issues proprietary consumer and small-business cards outside the United States.
Signs and maintains merchant relationships to accept American Express cards, and operates the global card network, including licensing it to third-party bank issuers.
Competitive moat
Network effects · WideAmerican Express controls both sides of the transaction through its closed-loop network, issuing cards to spenders and directly signing merchants, which it says gives it data on both ends of a transaction that competing four-party networks (Visa, Mastercard) do not have. That data feeds fraud control, underwriting and targeted offers, while the brand itself is positioned as a premium, trust-and-service signal that supports pricing power with both merchants and affluent cardholders.
What drives demand
CyclicalRevenue is driven mainly by cardmember spending, which the company itself ties to consumer and business economic activity; travel, dining and other discretionary categories that skew toward its premium customer base are typically the first to slow in a downturn and the first to rebound in a recovery. Its affluent-customer focus and diversified fee income likely dampen, but do not remove, this cyclicality.
Key risks
- Dependence on economic conditions and discretionary spending — The company discloses that its results depend on business and economic conditions, since card spending, lending and fee growth track consumer and business spending activity and credit performance.
- Competition for partner and cobrand relationships — American Express warns it "faces intense competition for partner relationships," and that losing or having to renegotiate a cobrand arrangement (such as its Delta Air Lines partnership) could have a material adverse impact on results.
- Cybersecurity incidents and increasingly sophisticated fraud — The filing highlights the risk of a major information or cybersecurity incident, plus growing exposure to sophisticated fraud, including generative-AI-enabled social engineering and account takeovers, that could damage the brand and reduce use of its products.
- Merchant pricing pressure — The company discloses risk from pressure on merchant discount pricing and from merchant practices such as surcharging or steering customers toward lower-cost payment methods.
- Regulation, capital rules and funding — As a bank holding company, American Express discloses risk from evolving regulation, capital and liquidity rules, and its ability to fund itself, including through deposits, at acceptable cost.
Customer concentration
The filing does not disclose a share of revenue from top customers, but it does flag a material partner concentration: the Delta Air Lines cobrand portfolio represented about 13% of worldwide billed business and about 21% of worldwide Card Member loans as of December 31, 2025, under an agreement that runs through 2029.
The case for
Buyers argue that the closed-loop network and premium brand give American Express durable pricing power with both merchants and affluent cardholders, that its customer base is more resilient to downturns than mass-market card issuers, and that continued growth in billed business and fee income (rather than credit risk-taking) can keep compounding earnings.
The case against
Sellers fear that a significant share of business is concentrated in a small number of large cobrand partnerships, led by Delta, whose loss or renegotiation could hit billed business and loan balances hard; that premium cardholder spending on travel and entertainment is still discretionary and vulnerable to a downturn; and that intensifying fraud, cybersecurity threats and merchant pushback on pricing could pressure margins.
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 28, 2026, shared with all users
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 18, 2026, shared with all users
Since closing the Discover acquisition in May 2025 Capital One is the only other US player that both issues cards and runs its own networks (Discover, Diners Club, PULSE), so it competes with American Express for the same cardholders, the same merchant acceptance and the same network fees.
Chase is the largest US card issuer and its Sapphire Reserve and Preferred cards target the same affluent, fee-paying travel customer as the Amex Platinum and Gold, while both bid for the same airline and hotel cobrand contracts.
Visa is the network American Express names first among its competitors: the two compete for merchant acceptance, for payment volume and for the issuing banks that decide which brand to put on their cards.
Mastercard competes on the same ground as Visa — merchant acceptance and transaction volume — and pushes hardest against Amex in premium and commercial cards, where its World Elite and corporate programmes chase the same high-spending customers.
Citi is one of the largest US card issuers and a direct rival in airline cobrand partnerships and rewards-driven consumer cards, competing for the same revolving balances and the same spending.
American Express names PayPal among the digital payment platforms that divert transactions away from its network, competing for the same online checkout and, through PayPal Credit, for the same consumer credit.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$75.95B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$11.45B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$16.00B
Total Equity
$33.47B
Total Liabilities
$266.58B
Current Ratio
0.64
Interest Coverage
0.80
Debt/EBITDA
-
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$238.79
Current Price
$313.22
Margin of Safety
-31.2%
Fair Value Range
$155.22 - $322.37
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
19.02
ROE
32.4%
P/B Ratio
6.17
P/FCF
14.05
Gross Margin
-
ROIC
-
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
-
WACC
11.5%
ROIC − WACC
-
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (16)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR 8.85%
- Price CAGR 15.28%
- P/FCF 14.05
- Operating margin 19.4%
- Positive free cash flow
- CapEx intensity
- Return on tangible assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- ROE 34.1%
- Revenue growth 5Y 16.0%
- PEG ratio 0.60
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 1.61
- Share dilution -2.6%
- Net margin trend 15.1% vs 14.8%
- Piotroski F-Score 5/9
Failed (6)
- P/B ratio 6.17
- Debt/equity ratio
- Interest coverage
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Earnings surprise, average 2.1%
Unavailable (5)
- ROIC –
- Gross margin –
- Dividend payout –
- Current ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Stephen Joseph Squeri | Chairman & CEO | 65 |
| Mr. Christophe Y. Le Caillec | Chief Financial Officer | 59 |
| Mr. Raymond Donald Joabar | Group President of Global Commercial Services | 59 |
| Mr. Howard Martin Grosfield | Group President of US Consumer Services | 56 |
| Mr. Ravikumar Radhakrishnan | Executive VP & CIO | 53 |
| Mr. Kartik Ramachandran | Senior VP & Head of Investor Relations | - |
| Ms. Laureen E. Seeger | Chief Legal Officer | 63 |
| Ms. Elizabeth Rutledge | Chief Marketing Officer | 63 |
| Ms. Glenda G. McNeal | Chief Partner Officer | 64 |
| Ms. Denise Pickett | President of Enterprise Shared Services | 59 |
Audit Risk
4
Board Risk
9
Compensation Risk
1
Shareholder Rights Risk
6
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-02-06
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-10-23
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-10-23
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much AXP moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 14% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 22.1%
- Volatility 90d
- 22.7%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- 0.93Correlation 0.47
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -24.1%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 2.05%
Earnings reactions
How AXP moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
No upcoming release on the calendar.
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 3.4% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 3, down 9 (out of 12).
- Of the 4 releases that beat estimates, the stock fell the next day after 3.
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | Before the open | 4.49 | 4.68 | +4.3% | -3.1% | -3.7% | n/a |
| Jul 24, 2026 | During the session | 4.45 | 4.53 | +1.8% | -4.3% | -4.3% | -1.0% |
| Apr 23, 2026 | During the session | 4.06 | 4.28 | +5.3% | -0.2% | -4.3% | -5.2% |
| Jan 30, 2026 | During the session | 3.57 | 3.53 | -1.2% | -1.0% | -1.8% | -1.1% |
| Oct 17, 2025 | During the session | 4.04 | 4.14 | +2.6% | +2.9% | +7.3% | +9.8% |
| Jul 18, 2025 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -1.1% | -2.3% | -2.3% |
| Apr 17, 2025 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0.0% | -0.6% | +5.7% |
| Jan 24, 2025 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -0.5% | -1.4% | -2.1% |
| Oct 18, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -3.1% | -3.1% | -5.5% |
| Jul 19, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -3.0% | -2.7% | -3.6% |
| Apr 19, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +0.6% | +6.2% | +9.0% |
| Jan 26, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +2.4% | +7.1% | +8.1% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on AXP and what the price did next.
- 10/23/2026NegativeAmerican Express taglia il 5% del personale e prepara l'AI
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 10/23/2026PositiveAmerican Express rivede al rialzo le stime di utile 2026 dopo solido terzo trimestre
- +1 day
- pending
- +3 days
- pending
- 9/30/2026PositiveAmex's New AI Agent for Expenses
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 9/30/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 7/24/2026PositiveAmerican Express rides a boom in Platinum cards to its strongest spending growth in years
- +1 day
- -4.4%
- +3 days
- -1.6%
- 6/18/2026Positive$1000 Invested In American Express 5 Years Ago Would Be Worth This Much Today
- +1 day
- +0.3%
- +3 days
- +3.2%
- 5/6/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
- +1 day
- +0.5%
- +3 days
- -1.9%
- 4/23/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
- +1 day
- -3.9%
- +3 days
- -4.8%
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for AXP.
- 1d agoNEGATIVEAmerican Express taglia il 5% del personale e prepara l'AI
American Express announced a global workforce reduction of approximately 5%, impacting nearly 3,850 employees based on its late 2025 headcount of 77,000. The company will book restructuring charges totaling $336 million. This move, coupled with preparations for AI integration, signals a strategic shift aimed at efficiency and future technological adaptation. For investors, the significant layoffs and associated costs introduce short-term uncertainty, potentially impacting near-term profitability and stock performance, despite the long-term AI strategy.
- 1d agoNEUTRALAmerican Express supera le stime sugli utili, taglia posti di lavoro — ma non convince Wall Street
American Express reported a mixed Q3, raising its annual profit outlook while announcing plans to cut approximately 5% of its global workforce. The company cited preparation for increased AI adoption as a driver for the restructuring, despite resilient spending from affluent customers. While Q3 revenue increased by 9%, the market reacted negatively to the job cuts. Investors are weighing the continued growth in AMEX's premium segment against the costs associated with transforming this growth into stronger profitability, creating a mixed signal for the stock.
- 1d agoPOSITIVEAmerican Express rivede al rialzo le stime di utile 2026 dopo solido terzo trimestre
American Express reported a net income of $3.7 billion for the third quarter of 2026, a significant increase from $2.9 billion in the same period last year. The company also revised its full-year 2026 earnings per share outlook upwards, signaling strong performance and confidence in future growth. This robust financial result, driven by solid consumer spending and effective cost management, suggests that American Express is well-positioned to continue its upward trajectory. Investors will likely view this as a positive indicator of the company's operational strength and market resilience.
- 24d agoPOSITIVEAmex's New AI Agent for Expenses
American Express has unveiled a new AI-powered corporate platform designed to significantly reduce the time spent on expense reports. The platform offers finance teams real-time spend insights and utilizes agentic tools to optimize back-office operations for mid-sized businesses. This innovation is expected to enhance efficiency and provide valuable data analytics, potentially improving cost management and strategic financial planning for its corporate clients. The development signals Amex's commitment to leveraging cutting-edge technology to deliver enhanced value and competitive advantages in the corporate services sector.
- 7/24/2026POSITIVEAmerican Express rides a boom in Platinum cards to its strongest spending growth in years
American Express reported its strongest spending growth in years, attributed to a surge in its premium Platinum card offerings. An executive highlighted that the appeal lies in the cardmember perks and 'access' provided. This robust performance indicates a strong consumer appetite for high-end services and a successful strategy by Amex in leveraging its premium segment. For investors, this suggests Amex is effectively capturing high-value customer spending and potentially gaining market share in the premium credit card space, which could translate to increased revenue and profitability.
- 6/20/2026NEUTRALBetter Payments Stock for the Long Haul: American Express or Visa?
The article compares American Express and Visa, highlighting their distinct business models. American Express targets a niche, premium customer segment, focusing on high-value transactions and loyalty programs. In contrast, Visa operates as a payment network intermediary, facilitating transactions for a broad range of consumers and businesses globally. This strategic difference impacts their growth potential and market positioning. While Amex focuses on deepening relationships with affluent customers, Visa aims for ubiquitous adoption. Investors should consider these differing strategies when evaluating long-term prospects for each company.
- 6/18/2026POSITIVE$1000 Invested In American Express 5 Years Ago Would Be Worth This Much Today
An investment of $1000 in American Express Company (AXP) five years ago would have yielded a significant return, illustrating the company's robust performance and stock appreciation over the period. While specific figures are not provided in the title, such a headline typically indicates substantial growth, likely driven by strong earnings, strategic initiatives, and positive market sentiment towards the financial services sector. Investors who held AXP would have benefited from its ability to navigate economic cycles and capitalize on consumer spending trends, making it a noteworthy performer in the financial sector.
- 5/11/2026NEUTRALAmex bought Resy. Chase bought The Infatuation. Inside the credit card industry’s quiet takeover of how you spend
American Express has acquired Resy, a restaurant reservation platform, while JPMorgan Chase acquired The Infatuation, a restaurant review and lifestyle company. These moves signal a strategic shift by major credit card issuers to influence consumer spending habits beyond simple rewards programs. By integrating dining reservation and review services, companies like Amex and Chase aim to capture a larger share of the lucrative dining market and gather valuable consumer data. This consolidation could lead to more exclusive partnerships and integrated experiences for cardholders, potentially altering the competitive landscape for both financial services and the hospitality tech sector.