Chevron Corp (CVX)
OvervaluedFundamental
61
Price
$233.21
Market Cap
$444.85B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Chevron Corporation is an integrated energy company engaged in exploring for, developing, producing and transporting crude oil and natural gas, and refining crude oil into petroleum products globally. The company operates through integrated upstream operations including crude oil and natural gas production, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and pipeline transportation, combined with downstream operations including refining, marketing and distribution of petroleum products, and petrochemical manufacturing through affiliated entities.
How it makes money
Chevron generates revenue through three main sources: (1) Upstream: selling crude oil, natural gas, and liquefied natural gas at commodity market prices, plus pipeline transportation fees; (2) Downstream: refining crude oil and selling gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and other petroleum products to industrial customers, utilities, airlines, and retail consumers, plus producing and selling petrochemicals to industrial customers; (3) Revenue is highly dependent on commodity prices for crude oil and natural gas, production volumes achieved, refining margins (crack spreads), and chemical product margins.
Revenue by segment
Refining of crude oil and marketing and distribution of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, lubricants and other petroleum products to industrial, commercial, utility and retail customers; petrochemical manufacturing and sales through affiliated entities.
Exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas; liquefied natural gas operations; and pipeline transportation services serving industrial and commercial customers globally.
Corporate and other non-segment operations.
Competitive moat
Scale · NarrowChevron's integrated operations spanning exploration, production, transportation, refining and retail marketing provide scale efficiencies and partial hedging of commodity price swings through diversified asset base and distribution infrastructure. However, as a commodity producer subject to market-driven prices for crude oil, natural gas and refined products, the company possesses limited durable competitive advantages. The moat is primarily operational efficiency and cost structure rather than pricing power or switching costs.
What drives demand
CyclicalDemand for crude oil, natural gas, refined petroleum products and petrochemicals is largely determined by global economic conditions and industrial activity. Recessions reduce transportation fuel consumption, manufacturing output and industrial energy demand, while economic growth increases energy consumption. Weather patterns, seasonal factors, and technological adoption of lower-carbon alternatives also influence demand cyclically.
Key risks
- Crude oil and natural gas price volatility — Changes in crude oil and natural gas prices significantly affect company revenues and earnings. An investment in the company carries substantial exposure to fluctuations in global prices of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids, which are determined by global supply-demand balances rather than company-specific factors.
- Energy transition and technological change — The pace of energy transition and development of lower-carbon alternatives could reduce demand for crude oil and natural gas. Technology advancements in renewable energy and other competing fuel sources present competitive risks to hydrocarbon-based business models.
- Regulatory and environmental compliance — Increasing environmental regulations, greenhouse gas emission restrictions, and climate change-related legislation at national and international levels constrain operations and increase compliance costs. Potential liability for remedial actions under environmental regulations affects operations and financial results.
- Geopolitical and supply chain disruptions — Military conflicts, political instability, OPEC production decisions, and civil unrest can disrupt operations, affect supply chains, and influence global commodity prices. Supply chain disruptions, cost escalations, and infrastructure damage from geopolitical events create operational and financial risks.
- Project execution and operational disruptions — Potential delays in development, construction and start-up of planned projects, including the Hess acquisition integration, could affect production growth and cash flow. Natural disasters, severe weather, wildfires, accidents, cyber threats and system failures can disrupt operations and damage infrastructure.
Customer concentration
Chevron's customer base is broad and diversified across industrial, commercial, utility, airline, and retail consumer segments. The filing does not disclose specific major customers or customer concentration ratios. No single customer appears to represent a material percentage of total revenue, as the company sells crude oil and natural gas through commodity markets and refined products through multiple distribution channels and branded retail networks.
The case for
Buyers argue that Chevron's large, low-cost production base combined with demonstrated operational efficiency and cost reduction capabilities provides strong cash generation potential. The company's Stabroek Block assets in Guyana, deepwater Gulf of Mexico production, and integrated refining operations create a diversified earnings stream. At sustained crude oil prices above $80-90 per barrel, the company can generate substantial free cash flow while maintaining dividend payments and share buybacks, attractive for income-focused investors.
The case against
Sellers fear that structural energy transition pressures and climate regulations could undermine long-term hydrocarbon demand. A sustained decline in crude oil prices below $70-75 per barrel would compress both upstream and downstream earnings, while renewable energy adoption and electric vehicle penetration reduce transportation fuel demand. Regulatory restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions, integration costs from acquisitions, execution risks on major development projects, and geopolitical disruptions to global supply chains present material downside risks to cash flow and shareholder returns.
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 21, 2026, shared with all users
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 18, 2026, shared with all users
The other US integrated supermajor, competing with Chevron for the same oil and gas acreage — above all in the Permian Basin and in Guyana — and selling refined fuels and chemicals to the same customers worldwide.
Competes for the same upstream licences in Africa, the Middle East and offshore Latin America, and for the same LNG buyers in Europe and Asia.
The largest US independent producer, competing directly with Chevron's upstream arm for Permian and Alaskan acreage and for LNG offtake agreements.
Integrated European major that competes head-on with Chevron for LNG supply contracts, deepwater licences and service-station and lubricants customers on the same international markets.
Integrated major bidding against Chevron for exploration acreage and running competing refining, fuels-retail and lubricants businesses in the same regions.
Italian integrated major competing for the same exploration blocks in North and West Africa, Egypt and the Eastern Mediterranean, and for gas supply to the same European buyers.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$208.71B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$20.59B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$16.59B
Total Equity
$186.45B
Total Liabilities
$131.84B
Current Ratio
1.25
Interest Coverage
-
Debt/EBITDA
0.73
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$185.93
Current Price
$233.21
Margin of Safety
-25.4%
Fair Value Range
$141.07 - $230.78
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
22.42
ROE
6.6%
P/B Ratio
2.43
P/FCF
17.06
Gross Margin
43.6%
ROIC
-
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
-
WACC
7.6%
ROIC − WACC
-
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (17)
- Price CAGR 6.55%
- Gross margin 43.6%
- P/FCF 17.06
- P/B ratio 2.43
- Debt/equity ratio
- Positive free cash flow
- Current ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on tangible assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- ROE 11.0%
- Revenue growth 5Y 14.3%
- Earnings surprise, average 16.8%
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 2.20
- Share dilution 2.1%
- Net margin trend 9.9% vs 7.3%
- Piotroski F-Score 5/9
Failed (5)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR -1.54%
- CapEx intensity
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
Unavailable (5)
- ROIC –
- Dividend payout –
- Operating margin –
- Interest coverage
- PEG ratio (needs P/E > 0 and growth > 0)
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Issuing new shares, diluting ownership
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Michael K. Wirth | Chairman & CEO | 64 |
| Ms. Eimear P. Bonner | Chief Financial Officer | 51 |
| Mr. R. Hewitt Pate J.D. | Chief Legal Officer | 62 |
| Mr. Mark A. Nelson | Vice Chairman & Executive VP of Oil, Products and Gas | 62 |
| Mr. Robert Clay Neff | President of Upstream | 63 |
| Mr. Amit Rajindrasingh Ghai | Controller & Principal Accounting Officer | 52 |
| Mr. T. Ryder Booth | Chief Technology & Engineering Officer | 56 |
| Ms. Jeanine Wai | Director of Investor Relations | 45 |
| Mr. Jake Robert Spiering | President of Corporate Business Development | 42 |
| Ms. Michelle R. Green | Chief Human Resources Officer | 52 |
Audit Risk
10
Board Risk
4
Compensation Risk
1
Shareholder Rights Risk
2
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-02-24
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-08-06
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-10-06
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much CVX moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 17% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 23.7%
- Volatility 90d
- 23.8%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- -0.59Correlation -0.31
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -21.5%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 2.05%
Earnings reactions
How CVX moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
Oct 30, 2026 · In 6 days · Before the open
EPS estimate: 4.83Revenue estimate: $61.6B
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 2.7% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 7, down 5 (out of 12).
- Of the 4 releases that beat estimates, the stock fell the next day after 1.
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | During the session | 5.62 | 6.06 | +7.9% | +1.5% | +2.4% | -1.6% |
| May 1, 2026 | During the session | 0.96 | 1.41 | +46.5% | -1.0% | -1.4% | -5.6% |
| Jan 30, 2026 | During the session | 1.46 | 1.52 | +3.9% | +0.8% | +3.3% | +4.7% |
| Oct 31, 2025 | During the session | 1.70 | 1.85 | +8.9% | +1.4% | +2.7% | -0.4% |
| Aug 1, 2025 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +0.6% | -0.2% | +1.0% |
| May 2, 2025 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +1.2% | +1.6% | +0.6% |
| Jan 31, 2025 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -1.6% | -4.6% | -2.8% |
| Nov 1, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +2.5% | +2.9% | +5.3% |
| Aug 2, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -1.0% | -2.7% | -5.3% |
| Apr 26, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0.0% | +0.4% | -2.8% |
| Feb 2, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +2.0% | +2.9% | +4.2% |
| Oct 27, 2023 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -2.6% | -6.7% | -3.9% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on CVX and what the price did next.
- 9/2/2026PositiveChevron, Eni Lead Wave of Deals to Boost Venezuela Oil Output
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 9/1/2026PositiveChevron is expanding in Venezuela as Trump pushes U.S. oil companies back into the country with 65 billion barrels up for grabs
- +1 day
- -0.1%
- +3 days
- -2.3%
- 8/28/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 8/28/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 8/28/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for CVX.
- 3d agoNEUTRALChevron Ends Support for Guyana Port Studies After Hess Acquisition
Chevron Corporation has withdrawn support for preliminary studies of a deepwater port project in Guyana. This decision follows Chevron's acquisition of Hess Corporation, which had initially funded these studies. The move suggests a potential shift in strategic priorities or a reassessment of the project's viability under Chevron's ownership. Investors will monitor future capital allocation decisions and project developments in Guyana for potential impacts on Chevron's long-term growth trajectory in the region.
- 18d agoNEUTRALChevron CFO Eimear Bonner built a 20-plus-year career at the company. Now she’ll run its core business
Chevron Corporation announced a significant leadership transition as CFO Eimear Bonner, with over two decades of experience at the company, is set to lead its core oil, products, and gas business. Bonner's career trajectory from petroleum engineer to technology chief and ultimately CFO provides a deep understanding of the company's operational facets. This internal promotion suggests continuity and a strategic focus on optimizing existing operations rather than a radical shift in direction. Investors will monitor how her leadership impacts operational efficiency and profitability in the energy sector.
- 19d agoNEUTRALChevron Names New Energies Head as CFO in Leadership Reshuffle
Chevron Corporation has appointed Jeff Gustavson, previously the president of its New Energies division, to the role of Chief Financial Officer. This change is part of a broader leadership reshuffling within the energy giant. Gustavson's transition from a strategic growth area to a key financial oversight position signals a potential shift in focus or a reinforcement of financial discipline. Investors will be watching to see how this new leadership impacts the company's financial strategy and future investments, particularly in its burgeoning New Energies segment.
- 9/2/2026POSITIVEChevron, Eni Lead Wave of Deals to Boost Venezuela Oil Output
Chevron Corporation is set to benefit from new energy deals in Venezuela aimed at significantly boosting crude oil production. Alongside partners like Eni SpA and GE Vernova Inc., the US energy giant is participating in initiatives that signal a potential ramp-up in output from the South American nation. This development, supported by US Energy Secretary Chris Wright, suggests an improved operating environment and increased production capacity for Chevron, which could lead to higher revenues and profits. Investors will be watching for the impact on Chevron's global oil supply contribution and financial performance.
- 9/1/2026POSITIVEChevron is expanding in Venezuela as Trump pushes U.S. oil companies back into the country with 65 billion barrels up for grabs
Chevron Corporation is solidifying its position as the sole major U.S. oil operator in Venezuela, a nation holding an estimated 65 billion barrels of oil reserves. This strategic expansion occurs amidst a U.S. policy shift under the Trump administration, encouraging American oil firms to re-engage with the South American country. Chevron's continued presence and potential for increased operations in Venezuela, despite the historical nationalization of its oil industry nearly two decades ago, signals a significant opportunity for the company to tap into vast untapped resources. This move could bolster Chevron's global production and revenue streams, offering substantial upside for investors.