Dow Inc (DOW)
Fair ValueFundamental
41
Price
$32.61
Market Cap
$21.94B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Dow Inc is a diversified global chemical manufacturer operating through The Dow Chemical Company (TDCC), a wholly-owned subsidiary. The company manufactures and sells chemicals, plastics, specialty materials, and industrial solutions across 113 manufacturing sites in 31 countries. Dow operates integrated production hubs, leveraging scale, proprietary technologies, and low-cost feedstock positions to serve end-markets including packaging, construction, automotive, electronics, and energy.
How it makes money
Dow generates revenue through the production and sale of chemical products, polymers, and specialty materials. Revenue is influenced by commodity chemical pricing cycles, feedstock costs (particularly ethane and crude oil-based naphtha), global manufacturing capacity utilization, and end-market demand. The company benefits from integrated production assets that reduce per-tonne costs and provide pricing flexibility. Geographic revenue distribution reflects diversified exposure: approximately 38% from U.S. and Canada, 33% from Europe/Middle East/Africa/India, and 29% from Asia-Pacific and Latin America.
Revenue by segment
Dow's largest segment produces polyethylene resins, specialty packaging films, elastomers, and plastomers used in food packaging, consumer products, hygiene applications, and infrastructure. This segment serves brand owners, converters, and end-users requiring recyclable and high-performance plastic materials.
This segment produces ethylene oxide and propylene oxide derivatives, glycols, amines, surfactants, polyether polyols, and polyurethane-related materials. Products serve appliances, coatings, electronics, construction chemicals, and industrial process industries. The segment includes building and insulation materials, construction adhesives, and products for oil and gas applications.
This segment manufactures advanced coatings including acrylic-based formulations for architectural paints and industrial finishes, plus silicones (siloxanes and intermediates) used in personal care, sealants, thermal management, and specialized electronic components requiring thermal stability and electrical insulation.
Competitive moat
Scale · WideDow maintains a wide moat through a combination of integrated scale advantages, proprietary technology, and low-cost feedstock positions. The company operates massive integrated production hubs on the U.S. Gulf Coast with advantaged access to low-cost ethane derived from shale gas, providing tens of dollars per tonne cost advantage over naphtha-based competitors. Global manufacturing scale across 113 sites in 31 countries allows Dow to spread fixed costs across high volumes, reducing per-tonne production costs relative to smaller rivals. Proprietary process technologies and customer relationships in specialty segments add intangible defensibility. However, the moat is vulnerable to feedstock price swings and shifts in energy costs, which can compress advantages during commodity downturns.
What drives demand
CyclicalDow's demand is cyclical, driven by global manufacturing activity, construction spending, automotive production, and consumer goods volumes. Packaging demand follows consumer purchasing patterns and e-commerce growth, which remain tied to economic cycles. Construction and building materials demand fluctuates with infrastructure investment and housing starts. Dow's exposure to both commodity and specialty chemicals means earnings compress during industrial slowdowns and expand during periods of strong economic growth and capacity tightness. The company has limited defensive characteristics; its products are not recession-resistant.
Key risks
- Commodity price cyclicality and margin pressure — Dow's earnings are highly sensitive to chemical commodity pricing cycles driven by global supply-demand imbalances and feedstock (ethane, naphtha, crude oil) cost fluctuations. Periods of oversupply or weak industrial demand compress pricing power and erode margins. Fixed costs on integrated production assets create operational leverage in both directions—amplifying gains during strong cycles but creating losses during downturns.
- Plastic waste regulation and environmental pressure — Increased regulatory scrutiny on plastic waste, extended producer responsibility fees, recycled content mandates, plastic taxes, and potential bans on non-essential plastic items pose risks to Dow's packaging business. Governments globally are negotiating binding instruments to address plastic pollution, which could reduce addressable market for virgin plastic resins and shift demand toward higher-cost recycled or bio-based alternatives.
- Supply chain disruptions and geopolitical risks — Dow's global operations and reliance on imported feedstocks expose the company to geopolitical instability, sanctions, export restrictions, and logistics disruptions. Regional conflicts can disrupt supply chains, increase transportation costs, and create uncertainty around key production sites and customer access in affected regions.
- High financial leverage and dividend sustainability — Dow maintains a substantial dividend relative to operating cash flow, creating financial inflexibility during downturns. Annual EBITDA of approximately $2.5-3 billion is insufficient to sustainably fund both capital expenditures and debt service during weak earnings periods, constraining liquidity and limiting reinvestment flexibility.
The case for
Buyers argue that Dow's vertically integrated, cost-advantaged U.S. Gulf Coast assets and global scale provide structural pricing power and margin resilience during supply-tight periods. The company's $2 billion 'Transform to Outperform' efficiency program is demonstrating tangible EBITDA improvement, suggesting management's operational discipline can deliver shareholder returns independent of near-term cycle movements. Dow's global footprint and diversified end-market exposure (packaging, construction, automotive, electronics) provide exposure to secular trends in infrastructure investment and emerging-market growth. Strong free cash flow can support both the substantial dividend and incremental debt reduction. Investors betting on a period of constrained global plastics supply see Dow positioned to capture elevated margins until supply-demand balance normalizes.
The case against
Sellers fear that Dow remains fundamentally exposed to prolonged chemical commodity weakness and cannot durably escape cyclicality. Global manufacturing activity remains subdued, and the bull case for supply scarcity is contingent on industry discipline—yet history shows chemical producers often compete away premiums during tight supply cycles. The high fixed-cost base of integrated assets creates downside leverage if end-market demand weakens faster than management expects. Environmental regulations and plastic-waste restrictions pose a structural headwind to the packaging segment, which represents over 50% of revenue. Dow's dividend is unsustainably high relative to discretionary cash generation, leaving little room for error or strategic flexibility. European chemical assets continue to struggle with high energy costs and weak regional demand, creating persistent cash drains. If macro conditions weaken further, the company lacks financial flexibility to sustain both capex and dividends without increased leverage.
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 21, 2026, shared with all users
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 18, 2026, shared with all users
BASF competes with Dow for the same industrial and coatings customers in solvents, amines and surfactants, in polyurethane raw materials, and in acrylic binders for paints, with Europe as the main shared battleground.
Through its chemical arm, ExxonMobil produces ethylene, propylene and polyethylene from the same Gulf Coast and global cracker base, competing for the same packaging and specialty-plastics converters Dow supplies.
Dow names LyondellBasell as a key competitor in almost every business it runs — ethylene and propylene, polyethylene and polyolefins, industrial solvents and glycols, and acrylic monomers — making it the rival that overlaps most closely across the whole portfolio.
SABIC sells the same ethylene, polyethylene and ethylene-oxide derivatives to the same converters and industrial buyers, backed by low-cost Middle East feedstock that puts direct pressure on Dow's commodity grades.
INEOS is listed by Dow as a competitor in olefins, polyethylene, industrial solutions chemicals and polyurethane intermediates, selling to the same European and North American industrial customers.
A privately held joint venture of Chevron and Phillips 66, it is one of the few US Gulf Coast producers of ethylene and polyethylene at Dow's scale, chasing the same North American resin buyers.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$39.33B
Trailing 12 months (through 3/31/2026)
Net Income
$-2.67B
Trailing 12 months (through 3/31/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$-1.45B
Total Equity
$16.01B
Total Liabilities
$41.02B
Current Ratio
1.85
Interest Coverage
-
Debt/EBITDA
4.93
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$33.41
Current Price
$32.61
Margin of Safety
+2.4%
Fair Value Range
$31.74 - $35.08
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
-
ROE
-15.3%
P/B Ratio
1.54
P/FCF
-
Gross Margin
6.4%
ROIC
-
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
-
WACC
5.9%
ROIC − WACC
-
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (7)
- P/B ratio 1.54
- Debt/equity ratio
- Current ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- DCF valuation (Undervalued)
- Earnings surprise, average 31.6%
- Share dilution -13.7%
Failed (10)
- EPS shows upward trend
- Price CAGR -8.59%
- Gross margin 6.4%
- Positive free cash flow
- Return on tangible assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- ROE -8.0%
- Revenue growth 5Y 0.7%
- Net margin trend -6.8% vs 0.9%
- Piotroski F-Score 4/9
Unavailable (9)
- ROIC –
- P/FCF –
- Dividend payout –
- Operating margin –
- CapEx intensity
- Interest coverage
- Price below Graham Number
- PEG ratio (needs P/E > 0 and growth > 0)
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income)
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
Low quality: investigate accounting
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. James R. Fitterling | Executive Chair | 63 |
| Ms. Karen S. Carter | CEO & Director | 54 |
| Mr. Jeffrey L. Tate CPA | Chief Financial Officer | 55 |
| Ms. Amy E. Wilson J.D. | General Counsel | 54 |
| Mr. John Maurice Sampson | Senior Vice President of Operations, Manufacturing & Engineering | 64 |
| Dr. Andre Argenton | Chief Technology & Sustainability Officer | 50 |
| Ms. Debra Bauler | Chief Information & Digital Officer | - |
| Mr. Andrew Riker | Vice President of Investor Relations | - |
| Ms. Lauren James | Senior Vice President of Corporate Development | - |
| Ms. Lisa Bryant | Chief Human Resources Officer | 49 |
Audit Risk
3
Board Risk
5
Compensation Risk
4
Shareholder Rights Risk
5
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-02-03
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-10-23
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-10-22
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much DOW moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 45% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 28.0%
- Volatility 90d
- 34.3%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- -0.29Correlation -0.09
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -35.5%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 2.88%
Earnings reactions
How DOW moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
No upcoming release on the calendar.
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 2.4% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 4, down 8 (out of 12).
- Of the 5 releases that beat estimates, the stock fell the next day after 3.
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | Before the open | 0.64 | 0.71 | +11.5% | +2.0% | +4.7% | n/a |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Before the open | 1.29 | 1.44 | +11.6% | +1.8% | -1.1% | -2.6% |
| Apr 23, 2026 | Before the open | -0.29 | -0.14 | +51.8% | +1.5% | -0.7% | +1.9% |
| Jan 29, 2026 | Before the open | -0.47 | -0.34 | +27.5% | -4.2% | -2.2% | +16.6% |
| Oct 23, 2025 | Before the open | -0.30 | -0.19 | +35.7% | +8.1% | +12.9% | +14.6% |
| Jul 24, 2025 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -10.5% | -17.5% | -21.2% |
| Apr 24, 2025 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -1.7% | +2.6% | +5.5% |
| Jan 30, 2025 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -4.2% | -6.1% | -7.6% |
| Oct 24, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +1.0% | -1.0% | -4.2% |
| Jul 25, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -4.8% | -0.9% | +2.2% |
| Apr 25, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +1.3% | -0.9% | +0.4% |
| Jan 25, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +3.1% | +3.5% | +1.0% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on DOW and what the price did next.
- 10/22/2026PositiveDow Sees Earnings in Biggest Unit Almost Doubling This Quarter
- +1 day
- +5.9%
- +3 days
- pending
- 7/30/2026PositiveNew Dow CEO drives ‘transformation’ back to profitability amid oil market upheaval
- +1 day
- -2.9%
- +3 days
- -5.7%
- 7/23/2026PositiveDow Says Iran War Could Boost Guidance as Supply Chain Shielded
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 4/23/2026NegativeDow CEO Says Petrochemical Supply Disruptions to Persist in 2026
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 4/23/2026PositiveDow Rises as Higher Prices Help Revenue Guidance Beat Estimates
- +1 day
- -0.3%
- +3 days
- -2.4%
- 4/14/2026PositiveDow, Exxon and Rivals Are Raising Plastic Prices as Iran War Convulses Oil Market
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 3/27/2026NegativeDow CEO warns petrochemical shortage from Iran war could fuel inflation for rest of the year
- +1 day
- +5.1%
- +3 days
- +4.7%
- 2/24/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
- +1 day
- +1.7%
- +3 days
- -2.3%
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for DOW.
- 2d agoPOSITIVEDow Sees Earnings in Biggest Unit Almost Doubling This Quarter
Dow Inc. has announced that its largest business segment is projected to nearly double its earnings in the fourth quarter compared to the same period last year. This significant projected growth indicates strong operational performance and potentially increased demand for Dow's products. Investors will be closely watching the final earnings report to confirm this trend, which could signal a robust recovery or expansion phase for the company's core operations and boost confidence in its future profitability.
- 7/30/2026POSITIVENew Dow CEO drives ‘transformation’ back to profitability amid oil market upheaval
Dow Inc. is undergoing a significant transformation under new CEO Karen Carter, aiming to return to profitability amidst a volatile oil market. The strategy emphasizes leveraging U.S. domestic operations for global turnaround, coupled with aggressive cost-cutting and restructuring initiatives. This focus on operational efficiency and strategic realignment is designed to navigate market challenges and enhance shareholder value. Investors will be watching closely for execution of these plans and their impact on Dow's financial performance and market position in the coming quarters.
- 7/23/2026POSITIVEDow Says Iran War Could Boost Guidance as Supply Chain Shielded
Dow Inc. anticipates that ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could lead to increased prices for plastics and packaging materials. The company stated that its supply chain remains shielded, suggesting that these higher selling prices would not be offset by increased input costs. This scenario is expected to boost Dow's third-quarter guidance, potentially leading to higher profit margins and increased shareholder value. Investors will be watching for confirmation of this pricing power and its sustained impact on earnings.
- 5/14/2026NEUTRALDow Is Hardly Moving Anything Through Hormuz, CEO Says
Dow Inc. is experiencing minimal product movement through the Strait of Hormuz, as stated by CEO Jim Fitterling. The company anticipates a lengthy recovery period of up to 275 days once the waterway reopens, indicating potential supply chain disruptions and increased logistical costs. While the direct impact on Dow's current operations is described as 'hardly moving anything,' the prolonged disruption suggests a cautious outlook for its global logistics and potentially its European or Middle Eastern market access. Investors should monitor the company's ability to reroute or mitigate these supply chain challenges.
- 4/23/2026NEGATIVEDow CEO Says Petrochemical Supply Disruptions to Persist in 2026
Dow Inc., a major petrochemical producer, anticipates that supply chain disruptions stemming from geopolitical tensions in Iran will continue through the end of 2026. CEO Jim Fitterling indicated that these persistent issues will impact the availability and potentially the price of key petrochemical products. This outlook suggests ongoing challenges for industries reliant on these materials, potentially affecting manufacturing costs and consumer goods prices. Investors should monitor Dow's ability to navigate these supply constraints and their impact on the company's profitability and market share.
- 4/23/2026POSITIVEDow Rises as Higher Prices Help Revenue Guidance Beat Estimates
Dow Inc. shares experienced an uptick following the company's announcement of a stronger-than-anticipated revenue forecast. This positive outlook is attributed to elevated product prices, a direct consequence of supply chain disruptions stemming from ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The company's ability to leverage these market conditions to improve its revenue guidance suggests resilience and effective strategic pricing, which is a favorable signal for investors.
- 4/14/2026NEUTRALDow’s CEO pick elevates a seasoned insider at a pivotal moment for the chemical giant
Dow Inc. has announced that Karen Carter will take over as Chief Executive Officer from Jim Fitterling, effective July 1. Carter, a seasoned insider, is expected to guide the chemical giant through a critical phase. The transition marks a significant leadership change for the company, which is navigating evolving market dynamics and strategic priorities in the chemical industry. Investors will be watching closely to see how Carter's leadership impacts Dow's future direction and performance.
- 4/14/2026POSITIVEDow, Exxon and Rivals Are Raising Plastic Prices as Iran War Convulses Oil Market
Dow Inc. and Exxon Mobil Corp. are implementing price increases for plastics, a move driven by supply chain disruptions stemming from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The conflict involving Iran has led to significant volatility in the oil market, directly impacting the cost of petrochemical feedstocks essential for plastic production. This price hike aims to offset rising raw material costs and maintain profit margins for these chemical giants. Investors may view this as a sign of pricing power in the sector, potentially benefiting companies that can pass on increased expenses.
- 3/27/2026NEGATIVEDow CEO warns petrochemical shortage from Iran war could fuel inflation for rest of the year
Dow Inc. CEO Jim Fitterling has warned that a potential petrochemical shortage stemming from the ongoing Iran conflict could significantly fuel inflation for the remainder of the year. Fitterling estimates that resolving these supply chain disruptions could take as long as 275 days. This outlook suggests sustained upward pressure on chemical prices, impacting downstream industries and consumer goods. Investors should monitor the petrochemical supply chain closely, as prolonged shortages could lead to margin compression for manufacturers and higher costs for consumers, potentially dampening economic growth.