EOG Resources Inc (EOG)
Fair ValueFundamental
77
Price
$163.03
Market Cap
$84.09B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
EOG Resources is an independent crude oil, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and natural gas exploration and production company. The company operates oil and gas properties in the United States (accounting for approximately 99% of proved reserves), as well as Trinidad, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates.
How it makes money
EOG generates revenue by selling crude oil and condensate at market-determined prices to refiners through pipelines to Gulf Coast, Cushing, Permian Basin, Northeast and Midwest hubs. Natural gas liquids are sold from company-owned or third-party extraction facilities, and natural gas is sold primarily at spot market prices. The company also earns gathering, processing, and marketing revenues from owned facilities.
Revenue by segment
Production and sale of crude oil and condensate from domestic and international properties, primarily to refiners via pipeline infrastructure in the Gulf Coast, Cushing, Permian Basin, and other regional hubs.
Extraction and sale of ethane, propane, butane, and natural gasoline from natural gas processing at company-owned or third-party facilities.
Production and sale of natural gas primarily at spot market prices for use in electric power generation, industrial, and commercial applications, as well as export via liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities.
Competitive moat
Cost advantage · NarrowEOG emphasizes drilling internally generated prospects to find and develop low-cost reserves, supported by advanced seismic imaging, microseismic monitoring, and simulation models. The company's technology and scale in horizontal drilling provide operational efficiency advantages. However, EOG competes against major integrated oil and gas companies with substantially greater resources, and this cost advantage is vulnerable to commodity price swings and regulatory changes that affect economics across the industry.
What drives demand
CyclicalCrude oil and natural gas demand is cyclical, driven by global economic activity, OPEC production decisions, geopolitical supply disruptions, and industrial/commercial energy consumption. Natural gas demand also responds to seasonal variations in heating and power generation needs. Energy policy incentives, such as the Inflation Reduction Act, support domestic production.
Key risks
- Commodity Price Volatility — Substantial and extended declines in crude oil or natural gas prices can have material adverse effects on EOG's financial results, cash flows, and capital allocation decisions. In 2025, crude oil prices declined 15% year-over-year, while natural gas prices rose 48%.
- Capital Intensity and Financing Risk — EOG requires substantial capital for exploration and development activities. If commodity prices decline materially, the company's ability to self-fund operations may be constrained. Additionally, if capital and credit market conditions deteriorate significantly, EOG may be unable to obtain financing on acceptable terms.
- Regulatory and Climate Risk — Methane emissions regulations, potential federal leasing restrictions, and state-level hydraulic fracturing regulations could impose operational delays and increased compliance costs. Changes in royalty rates (e.g., the Inflation Reduction Act increased rates to 16.67%, later reverted to 12.5% under the Outer Continental Shelf Barrels of Oil Bill) affect economics. The U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement became effective in January 2026.
- Operational and Safety Risks — EOG's operations face risks including well explosions, fires, loss of well control, and spills. Weather-related disruptions, particularly hurricanes and flooding, can impact production. Equipment failures and other unforeseen operational events can cause production shutdowns and significant financial losses.
- Customer Concentration — Two purchasers each account for more than 10% of EOG's total crude oil, condensate, NGLs, and natural gas revenues. Both are crude oil refiners. Loss of either major customer could materially impact EOG's financial results and cash flows.
- International Operations Risk — EOG's Trinidad operations and emerging projects in Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates expose the company to geopolitical risks, including potential expropriation, contract renegotiation, currency fluctuations, and political instability in these regions.
Customer concentration
Two purchasers each account for more than 10% of total revenues; both are crude oil refiners. The filing does not disclose the combined percentage, but this concentration represents material revenue exposure to a limited customer base.
The case for
Buyers argue that EOG's strong 2025 volume growth—crude oil production up 6% and natural gas up 30% year-over-year—demonstrates operational execution and the productivity of its Delaware Basin assets. The company's emerging international portfolio in Bahrain and the UAE offers significant long-term upside potential as these projects transition to production phases in 2026 and beyond. EOG's low-cost production structure and technology leadership in horizontal drilling position it to remain profitable across commodity price cycles. The recent Encino acquisition in August 2025 adds high-quality Appalachian natural gas acreage with 300+ planned wells, diversifying cash flows. Strong cash generation from diversified commodity exposure provides flexibility to return capital to shareholders and fund growth.
The case against
Sellers fear that the global energy transition and net-zero commitments by major economies could structurally reduce hydrocarbon demand over 10–15 years, threatening EOG's long-term business model. Commodity price volatility—crude oil declined 15% in 2025, and natural gas remains volatile despite a 48% annual increase—creates earnings uncertainty and forces difficult capital allocation decisions. Regulatory headwinds, including potential future restrictions on federal leasing and state-level hydraulic fracturing regulations, could raise costs and limit production growth. Customer concentration among two refiners creates material revenue risk if either customer is lost. The company's capital-intensive drilling program requires sustained high commodity prices to maintain attractive project economics, leaving EOG vulnerable to downturns in energy markets.
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 21, 2026, shared with all users
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 18, 2026, shared with all users
A pure-play Permian producer drilling the same Delaware and Midland Basin shale intervals as EOG and selling the same light sweet crude to the same Gulf Coast buyers.
Overlaps with EOG across the Delaware Basin, Eagle Ford and Powder River Basin, competing for the same acreage, drilling crews and oil and gas volumes.
The largest US independent exploration and production company, competing directly with EOG for Permian and Eagle Ford acreage and for the same crude and natural gas customers.
One of the biggest acreage holders in the Permian Basin, competing with EOG for the same shale drilling inventory and for the same domestic crude buyers.
An independent producer with Permian operations and an international exploration portfolio, competing with EOG both for US shale barrels and for offshore exploration licences abroad.
Produces oil in the Delaware Basin and natural gas from US shale, putting it head to head with EOG's Delaware oil and South Texas Dorado gas volumes.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$27.03B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$6.88B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
-
Total Equity
$29.83B
Total Liabilities
$21.97B
Current Ratio
1.85
Interest Coverage
32.98
Debt/EBITDA
0.76
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$161.48
Current Price
$163.03
Margin of Safety
-1.0%
Fair Value Range
$147.06 - $175.89
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
12.68
ROE
16.7%
P/B Ratio
2.68
P/FCF
-
Gross Margin
-
ROIC
14.2%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
14.2%
WACC
7.5%
ROIC − WACC
+6.8 pp
ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (16)
- EPS shows upward trend
- ROIC 14.2%
- P/B ratio 2.68
- Debt/equity ratio
- Operating margin 32.9%
- Current ratio
- Interest coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on tangible assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- ROE 22.4%
- Revenue growth 5Y 15.4%
- Earnings surprise, average 4.9%
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 1.94
- Share dilution -4.1%
- Net margin trend 25.4% vs 25.3%
Failed (5)
- EPS CAGR 4.17%
- Price CAGR 4.31%
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Unknown)
- Piotroski F-Score 4/9
Unavailable (6)
- Gross margin –
- P/FCF –
- Dividend payout –
- Positive free cash flow
- CapEx intensity
- PEG ratio (needs P/E > 0 and growth > 0)
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Ezra Y. Yacob | CEO & Chairman | 48 |
| Ms. Ann D. Janssen | Executive VP & CFO | 60 |
| Mr. Jeffrey R. Leitzell | Executive VP & COO | 45 |
| Mr. Michael P. Donaldson | Executive VP & Chief Legal Officer | 62 |
| Laura B. Distefano | VP & Chief Accounting Officer | - |
| Mr. Sandeep Bhakhri | Senior VP and Chief Information & Technology Officer | - |
| Mr. Pearce Wheless Hammond Jr., C.F.A. | Vice President of Investor Relations | - |
| Lori A. Geiger | Vice President of Marketing | - |
| Chase Krieger | Vice President of Corporate Development | - |
| Ms. Michele L. Hatz | Senior VP & Chief Human Resources Officer | - |
Audit Risk
9
Board Risk
5
Compensation Risk
3
Shareholder Rights Risk
2
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-02-24
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-08-04
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-10-08
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much EOG moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 38% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 30.5%
- Volatility 90d
- 31.4%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- -0.71Correlation -0.31
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -14.3%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 2.44%
Earnings reactions
How EOG moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
Nov 5, 2026 · In 12 days · Time not known
EPS estimate: 4.46Revenue estimate: $7.2B
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 1.2% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 3, down 9 (out of 12).
- Of the 4 releases that beat estimates, the stock fell the next day after 3.
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | After the close | 5.03 | 5.07 | +0.8% | 0.0% | -6.5% | -0.1% |
| May 5, 2026 | After the close | 3.22 | 3.41 | +5.8% | -3.4% | -4.4% | -4.8% |
| Feb 24, 2026 | After the close | 2.21 | 2.27 | +2.6% | +1.2% | -1.0% | +3.5% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | After the close | 2.45 | 2.71 | +10.4% | +1.2% | +0.4% | +4.0% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +0.3% | +0.3% | +3.3% |
| May 1, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -0.5% | -0.7% | -1.8% |
| Feb 27, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -1.9% | -2.8% | -6.4% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +4.1% | +6.1% | +6.9% |
| Aug 1, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +1.3% | -0.2% | +3.0% |
| May 2, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -0.7% | -1.4% | -0.9% |
| Feb 22, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -5.6% | -3.9% | -1.7% |
| Nov 2, 2023 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +0.9% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on EOG and what the price did next.
- 3/31/2026PositiveHere's How Much You Would Have Made Owning EOG Resources Stock In The Last 5 Years
- +1 day
- -3.6%
- +3 days
- -2.4%
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for EOG.
- 3/31/2026POSITIVEHere's How Much You Would Have Made Owning EOG Resources Stock In The Last 5 Years
An analysis of EOG Resources stock performance over the past five years reveals a substantial return for investors. While specific figures are not detailed in the provided snippet, the title implies significant gains, suggesting the company has outperformed market expectations or its peers. This historical performance indicates strong operational execution, favorable market conditions for its products, or successful strategic decisions. Investors considering EOG Resources should note this long-term positive trend as a potential indicator of continued value creation, though future performance is not guaranteed.
- 2/25/2026NEUTRALEOG Resources (EOG) Q4 2025 Earnings Transcript
The financial community eagerly awaits the publication of EOG Resources Inc.'s Q4 2025 earnings transcript. As a prominent player in the oil and natural gas exploration and production sector, detailed insights from these documents are crucial for investors assessing the company's operational performance, capital strategies, and future outlook. While the specific content is not yet available, earnings call transcripts often provide direct commentary from management regarding production levels, cost structures, capital allocation, and forward guidance. The current lack of specific data keeps the stock in a holding pattern, with market participants poised to react once key information is disclosed, potentially influencing share prices.