FedEx Corp (FDX)
OvervaluedFundamental
71
Price
$298.72
Market Cap
$70.58B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
FedEx is a globally integrated transportation, courier, and logistics company providing express, ground, and freight services across more than 220 countries and territories. Following the June 2024 integration of FedEx Ground and FedEx Services into Federal Express, the company operates a unified air-ground network serving e-tailers, high-volume shippers, and businesses worldwide, with one of the world's largest all-cargo fleets and over 175,000 vehicles.
How it makes money
Revenue from time-definite domestic overnight and deferred package services; international express and economy services across 220+ destinations; domestic and international freight; fuel surcharges (3.2% of FY2025 revenue); demand surcharges during peak periods; less-than-truckload priority and economy services; cross-border logistics; e-commerce and specialty handling solutions.
Revenue by segment
Integrated air-ground express delivery network providing domestic and international package services, priority freight, and time-definite delivery across 220+ countries, representing the largest operating segment.
North American less-than-truckload freight transportation with fastest published transit times among nationwide LTL services, offering priority, economy, volume, and cross-border options for time-critical and cost-optimized freight.
Competitive moat
Scale · NarrowFedEx possesses significant scale advantages through the world's largest all-cargo air fleet, 175,000+ vehicles, decades of infrastructure investment, and brand recognition spanning over 99% of global GDP-generating markets. However, the moat is narrow because intense competition from UPS, DHL, Amazon Logistics, and regional carriers limits pricing power and durability. Amazon's in-house logistics capabilities present an ongoing erosion risk.
What drives demand
Moderately cyclicalFedEx demand fluctuates with global economic cycles and e-commerce trends. Express services decline during recessions and improve during growth periods. Ground and LTL freight are somewhat defensive due to business-to-business supply chain requirements. Holiday season drives seasonal peaks. International segments show moderate cyclicality tied to global trade volumes.
Key risks
- Intense Competition — U.S. domestic and international package markets are highly competitive and price-sensitive. Major competitors include UPS, DHL, Amazon (building competing network), and government-owned carriers with greater resources and lower costs. Competition limits pricing and service differentiation.
- Labor Relations and Unionization — Pilot labor agreement negotiations ongoing since 2021; significant unionized workforce outside the U.S.; potential for network-disrupting strikes and wage inflation from collective bargaining. Labor costs represent a material portion of operating expenses.
- Macroeconomic Sensitivity — Express services are vulnerable during periods of economic slowdown or recession. E-commerce and time-critical shipment volumes decline significantly during downturns, directly impacting revenue and margins across both reportable segments.
- Fuel Price Volatility — Jet fuel and diesel costs ranged from 2.5% to 5.0% of consolidated revenue over five years. While fuel surcharges partially offset increases, sustained high fuel prices compress margins. Hedging strategies cannot fully eliminate exposure.
- Network Integration and Transformation Risk — The June 2024 integration of FedEx Ground and Services into Federal Express and ongoing Network 2.0 transformation introduce operational complexity and execution risk. Separation of FedEx Freight (planned by June 2026) adds further complexity and transition uncertainty.
Customer concentration
Top customers account for 39% of revenue
As of March 31, 2025, a single customer represented 39% of consolidated revenue (concentration increased from 36% in prior year). Based on company disclosures and market context, this concentration is with e-tailer customers utilizing FedEx for package and ground services. This concentration level creates material revenue risk if customer diversifies its logistics footprint or develops competing internal capabilities.
The case for
Buyers argue that FedEx's unmatched global scale, with the world's largest all-cargo air fleet and 175,000+ ground vehicles, creates durable competitive advantages difficult for new entrants to replicate. The "One FedEx" integration consolidates operations and unlocks efficiency gains. Continued e-commerce growth—despite near-term moderation—drives long-term demand. The upcoming separation of FedEx Freight creates two pure-play companies that could unlock value and enhance operational focus. Management's commitment to network transformation positions the company to improve margins as integration matures.
The case against
Sellers fear that Amazon's rapidly expanding in-house logistics network and announcement of third-party logistics services will cannibalize FedEx's most profitable customer. The 39% customer concentration (concentrated with e-commerce shippers) is exposed to direct competition from Amazon's logistics platform. Intense price competition from UPS and DHL limits pricing power and margin expansion. The FedEx Freight separation removes a stable, capital-efficient business, potentially concentrating cyclical express exposure. Rising labor costs from unionization and ongoing macro uncertainty threaten profitability during downturns. Execution risks on the Network 2.0 transformation and separation could disrupt operations and alienate customers.
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 21, 2026, shared with all users
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 18, 2026, shared with all users
FedEx's 10-K names UPS as its principal competitor, going after the same express, ground and international parcel customers with an almost identical air-and-ground network.
Flagged in the 10-K as emerging competition: Amazon Logistics now runs its own hubs, aircraft and delivery fleet, absorbing parcel volume FedEx used to carry and selling delivery to third-party shippers.
The reference operator in U.S. less-than-truckload shipping, competing directly with the FedEx Freight segment for the same industrial LTL customers and lanes.
A pure-play U.S. LTL carrier whose CEO calls FedEx Freight a competitor today and tomorrow; both bid for the same palletized freight from manufacturers and distributors.
Cited first among FedEx's international competitors: DHL Express moves the same cross-border documents and parcels for the same multinational shippers, with a stronger base in Europe and Asia.
Named in the 10-K as a U.S. competitor: its Priority Mail and parcel services take the same domestic e-commerce and light-package volume FedEx Ground competes for, though it is a federal agency and not listed.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$94.72B
Trailing 12 months (through 5/31/2026)
Net Income
$4.43B
Trailing 12 months (through 5/31/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$5.12B
Total Equity
$31.65B
Total Liabilities
$67.29B
Current Ratio
1.48
Interest Coverage
5.63
Debt/EBITDA
4.60
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$246.22
Current Price
$298.72
Margin of Safety
-21.3%
Fair Value Range
$164.38 - $328.06
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
16.10
ROE
14.0%
P/B Ratio
2.23
P/FCF
13.81
Gross Margin
-
ROIC
5.4%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
5.4%
WACC
7.8%
ROIC − WACC
-2.4 pp
ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (20)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR 27.21%
- Price CAGR 6.86%
- ROIC 5.4%
- P/FCF 13.81
- P/B ratio 2.23
- Debt/equity ratio
- Operating margin 5.8%
- Positive free cash flow
- Current ratio
- Interest coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on tangible assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- ROE 15.1%
- Earnings surprise, average 2.6%
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 2.01
- Share dilution -1.8%
- Net margin trend 4.7% vs 4.7%
- Piotroski F-Score 5/9
Failed (4)
- CapEx intensity
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Revenue growth 5Y 2.4%
Unavailable (3)
- Gross margin –
- Dividend payout –
- PEG ratio (needs P/E > 0 and growth > 0)
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Institutional Holdings
Well-known investors who own FedEx Corp
Latest 13F: quarter ended 06/30/2026
| Investor | Weight in their portfolio | Last quarter |
|---|---|---|
| Mason Hawkins · Southeastern Asset Management | 3.2% | -$16.5M |
| Bill Gates · Gates Foundation Trust | 2.2% | 0 |
| Tweedy Browne · Tweedy, Browne Company | 0.3% | -$19.8M |
| Joel Greenblatt · Gotham Asset Management | 0.1% | +$9.5M |
| Ray Dalio · Bridgewater Associates | 0.1% | +$20.3M |
Source: 13F filings with the SEC. Long positions in US stocks only, filed up to 45 days late.
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Rajesh Subramaniam | President, CEO & Director | 59 |
| Mr. Vishal Talwar | Executive VP, Chief Digital & Information Officer and President of FedEx Dataworks | 48 |
| Ms. Tracy B. Brightman | Executive VP & Chief People Officer | 62 |
| Ms. Brie A. Carere | Executive VP & Chief Customer Officer | 47 |
| Mr. R. Brad Martin | Executive Chairman | 73 |
| Mr. Claude F. Russ | Enterprise VP of Finance, Interim CFO & Interim Chief Accounting Officer | 49 |
| Ms. Jenifer Hollander | Vice President of Investor Relations | - |
| Ms. Gina F. Adams | Executive VP, General Counsel & Secretary | 66 |
| Ms. Jill C. Brannon | Executive VP & Chief Sales Officer | 61 |
| Ms. Lisa Suzanne Lisson | President of Air Operations | 56 |
Audit Risk
3
Board Risk
6
Compensation Risk
8
Shareholder Rights Risk
6
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-07-20
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-03-19
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-09-29
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much FDX moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 21% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 22.5%
- Volatility 90d
- 25.2%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- 0.81Correlation 0.37
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -17.6%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 2.11%
Earnings reactions
How FDX moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
Oct 28, 2026 · In 3 days · After the close
EPS estimate: 3.38Revenue estimate: $22.6B
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 3.9% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 6, down 6 (out of 12).
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 23, 2026 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -0.8% | -0.1% | -1.3% |
| Mar 19, 2026 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +6.9% | +0.8% | -1.8% |
| Dec 18, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -5.2% | +0.6% | +3.2% |
| Sep 18, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +0.8% | +2.3% | +4.4% |
| Jun 24, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -4.8% | -3.3% | +2.1% |
| Mar 20, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -10.7% | -6.4% | -0.9% |
| Dec 19, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +6.6% | -0.1% | +1.6% |
| Sep 19, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -13.2% | -15.2% | -11.3% |
| Jun 25, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +12.5% | +15.5% | +16.3% |
| Mar 21, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +8.0% | +7.4% | +9.4% |
| Dec 19, 2023 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -12.0% | -12.1% | -10.4% |
| Sep 20, 2023 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +4.6% | +4.5% | +4.9% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/25/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for FDX.
- 8/27/2026NEUTRALThe supply-chain savant: How FedEx CEO Raj Subramaniam leads through ‘reglobalization’
FedEx CEO Raj Subramaniam is navigating the company through a period of 'reglobalization,' characterized by shifting trade routes, tariffs, and geopolitical conflicts. The company aims to leverage these disruptions to its advantage in the global supply chain. While the article highlights Subramaniam's strategic approach, it does not provide specific financial performance metrics or forward-looking guidance that would directly impact the stock price in the short term. Investors will be watching how FedEx's strategy translates into operational efficiency and profitability amidst evolving global trade dynamics.
- 8/13/2026POSITIVETrump’s tariff was a $1,000 tax on you last year. This year, maybe you’ll get a small refund in your bank account
FedEx, alongside UPS and DHL, is set to refund customers directly following a court ruling that invalidated Trump-era import taxes. This move, while providing a direct financial benefit to some clients, contrasts with the broader retail industry's strategy of passing savings through price reductions. The refunds are a consequence of the legal challenge against specific tariffs, which has now been resolved in favor of the shipping companies and their customers. For investors, this indicates a resolution of a past cost burden for logistics firms, potentially improving their operational margins going forward.
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 6/23/2026POSITIVEFedEx Projects Profit Growth This Year
FedEx Corporation announced fiscal fourth-quarter earnings that surpassed Wall Street's expectations, coupled with a projection for profit growth in the current year. This positive outlook is attributed to the successful implementation of cost-cutting measures, indicating improved operational efficiency. Analysts note that these results suggest the company is effectively navigating its cost structure, which could lead to enhanced shareholder value. The market will be closely watching for continued execution on these strategies to sustain the growth trajectory.
- +1 day
- -0.1%
- +3 days
- +1.0%
- 6/17/2026NEUTRALHow To Earn $500 A Month From FedEx Stock Ahead Of Q4 Earnings
FedEx is set to report its fourth-quarter earnings on June 23rd, with analysts forecasting earnings per share of $5.92, a decrease from the previous year's figures. Despite the anticipated year-over-year decline, Barclays has reiterated an 'Overweight' rating on the stock. This suggests that while headline numbers might show a dip, the firm sees underlying strengths or positive future prospects for FedEx. Investors will be closely watching the earnings call for management's outlook on cost-saving initiatives and future demand trends.
- 6/1/2026NEGATIVEFedEx Freight Shares Fall in First Trading Day After Spinoff
FedEx Freight Corporation's shares experienced a decline on their inaugural trading day as an independent entity. This debut performance suggests initial investor sentiment may be cautious or that the market is reassessing the standalone valuation of the freight division post-spinoff from FedEx Corp. Investors will be closely monitoring future earnings reports and strategic announcements to gauge the long-term viability and growth prospects of the newly independent company.
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 5/4/2026NEGATIVEAmazon is taking on FedEx and UPS. That may not be so simple.
FedEx shares experienced a notable decline following news that Amazon is intensifying its efforts to compete in the logistics and delivery market. While Amazon's expansion into this space poses a potential long-term threat, some analysts suggest the immediate disruptive impact may be less significant than initially feared. Investors are closely monitoring how FedEx and UPS will adapt their strategies to counter Amazon's growing capabilities in parcel delivery, which could pressure margins and market share for established players.
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 3/21/2026NEUTRALBenzinga Bulls And Bears: FedEx, Micron, SoFi — And Markets Volatile As Iran War Continues
This article from Benzinga's Bulls and Bears series provides a mixed outlook on several stocks, including FedEx, Micron, and SoFi, amidst ongoing market volatility influenced by geopolitical events like the Iran war. While specific financial data or catalysts for these companies are not detailed in this excerpt, the mention of market volatility suggests a cautious investor sentiment. The analysis aims to guide investors through the complex market environment, highlighting potential opportunities and risks across different equities without offering a definitive directional call on any single asset in this snippet.
- 3/20/2026POSITIVEFedEx Delivers Biggest Profitable US Share Gains In Two Decades
FedEx Corporation (FDX) shares experienced significant gains, marking their largest profitable advance in the US market over two decades. This surge follows Bank of America's decision to raise its price target for FDX to $440. The company's strong third-quarter earnings report and an upward revision of its 2026 financial guidance indicate substantial future growth prospects. These positive developments are likely to attract further investor interest and potentially lead to sustained upward momentum for the stock.
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 3/20/2026NEUTRALFedEx, Planet Labs And 3 Stocks To Watch Heading Into Friday
U.S. stock futures are showing gains as markets gear up for Friday's trading session. Several companies are expected to be in focus, including FedEx, Xpeng, Planet Labs, Scholastic, and BitFuFu. This premarket activity suggests potential volatility and investor interest in these specific names. While the overall market sentiment appears positive based on futures, the individual performance of these stocks will depend on specific company news and broader economic factors that emerge throughout the day. Investors are advised to monitor these key stocks for potential trading opportunities.
- 3/19/2026POSITIVEFedEx is upbeat about shipping demand despite surging fuel costs — and the stock is rallying
FedEx shares climbed in after-hours trading following the company's optimistic forecast for the current year, projecting slightly improved sales and profits. This positive outlook persists despite escalating fuel costs and potential shipping disruptions stemming from geopolitical tensions. The company's resilience in managing these headwinds suggests strong underlying demand for its services. Investors are likely encouraged by FedEx's ability to navigate a challenging operational environment and maintain growth prospects, potentially signaling a favorable outlook for the logistics sector.
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.