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Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL)

POSITIVE
IndustrialsTruckingUnited States

Fundamental

70

Price

$201.60

Market Cap

$41.90B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

Old Dominion Freight Line moves freight that is too small to fill a full truck — a few pallets or boxes rather than an entire trailer — picking up shipments from many customers, sorting them at regional service centers, and combining them onto trucks headed the same direction. It operates this less-than-truckload, or LTL, network itself across the United States with its own drivers, terminals and trucks rather than through franchisees or outside carriers, and adds services like expedited and guaranteed delivery.

How it makes money

Revenue is charged per shipment, based mainly on weight and distance, so it rises and falls with how much freight moves through the economy rather than with any subscription or long-term contract base. Because the network's fixed costs — terminals, trucks and staff — barely change with volume, profitability depends heavily on keeping trucks and terminals full: a small change in shipment density can swing operating margins by a large amount in either direction.

Competitive moat

Cost advantage · Narrow

Decades of investment in a dense, non-union terminal network let Old Dominion run at some of the lowest costs and highest on-time delivery rates in the LTL industry, a combination that is hard for a new or smaller carrier to match quickly. That efficiency shows up in an industry-leading operating ratio, but the LTL market remains competitive on price, so the edge is durable rather than unassailable.

What drives demand

Cyclical

LTL shipment volumes track industrial production, retail restocking and manufacturing activity closely, so freight demand slows sharply when the broader economy weakens — 2025 revenue fell as shipment volumes declined during a soft freight market. Pricing tends to be more resilient than volume, since carriers are reluctant to cut rates even when demand softens.

Key risks

  • Freight cycle and industrial activity — Shipment volumes fall when industrial production, retail restocking and manufacturing activity slow, as happened in 2025; revenue and profitability move directly with the broader freight cycle.
  • Fixed cost operating leverage — Terminals, trucks and drivers are largely fixed costs regardless of volume, so a drop in shipments cannot easily be matched by cost cuts, and operating margins compress quickly in a downturn.
  • Driver and labor availability — The business depends on recruiting and retaining enough qualified drivers and dock workers; a shortage or higher wage costs would raise expenses or limit how much freight the network can move.
  • Fuel price volatility — Diesel is a major operating cost; while fuel surcharges pass much of the cost through to customers, sharp price swings can still create timing mismatches that pressure margins.

Customer concentration

Top customers account for 16% of revenue

The customer base is highly diversified: the single largest customer represented about 4% of 2025 revenue, and the top 10 customers combined represented about 16%.

The case for

Buyers argue that Old Dominion's dense, non-union network gives it a durable cost and service advantage over LTL rivals, reflected in an industry-leading operating ratio, and that a highly diversified customer base with no meaningful concentration limits the damage any single account can do.

The case against

Sellers fear that the business is fundamentally tied to the industrial and freight cycle, that 2025's volume decline shows how quickly a soft economy erodes results, and that heavy fixed costs in terminals and trucks turn even a modest downturn in shipments into a larger hit to margins.

Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

No editorial profile for this company yet

No competitor list for this company yet.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$5.60B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Net Income

$1.09B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Free Cash Flow

$955M

Total Equity

$4.31B

Total Liabilities

$1.16B

Current Ratio

1.89

Interest Coverage

-

Debt/EBITDA

0.01

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

Overvalued

Fair Value

$160.21

Current Price

$201.60

Margin of Safety

-25.8%

Fair Value Range

$104.13 - $216.28

Estimation Methods

Analyst Target:$232.14
DCF:$87.55
PE-based:$179.94
Graham Growth:$142.13
EPV:$49.34
Analyst Consensus:Buy (14B / 15H / 2S)
Last Earnings Surprise:+9.03%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

38.75

ROE

23.7%

P/B Ratio

9.19

P/FCF

37.48

Gross Margin

-

ROIC

22.0%

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

22.0%

WACC

11.1%

ROIC − WACC

+10.9 pp

ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (18)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 8.39%
  • Price CAGR 21.86%
  • ROIC 22.0%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 25.8%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • ROE 24.9%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 6.5%
  • Earnings Surprise avg 4.9%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.28
  • Share Dilution -2.3%
  • Net Margin Trend 19.4% vs 19.4%
  • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

Failed (7)

  • P/FCF 37.48
  • P/B Ratio 9.19
  • CapEx intensity
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Analyst Consensus 45% Buy
  • PEG Ratio 3.67

Unavailable (3)

  • Gross Margin NaN%
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Interest Coverage

Piotroski F-Score

6/9

Mixed signals: some areas need attention

score
criteria

Earnings Quality

1.28

High quality: earnings backed by cash

Share Dilution

-2.3%

Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Mr. David S. CongdonExecutive Chairman of the Board68
Mr. Kevin M. FreemanPresident, CEO & Director66
Mr. Adam N. Satterfield CPAExecutive VP, Assistant Secretary & CFO50
Mr. Gregory B. PlemmonsExecutive VP & COO59
Mr. Ross H. ParrSenior VP of Legal Affairs, General Counsel & Secretary53
Mr. Cecil E. Overbey Jr.Senior Vice President of Strategic Development63
Mr. Earl E. CongdonChairman Emeritus & Senior Advisor94
Mr. Clayton G. BrinkerVP of Accounting & Finance and Principal Accounting Officer39
Mr. Jack Lawrence AtkinsDirector of Investor Relations-
Sam FaucetteVice President of Safety & Compliance-

Audit Risk

5

Board Risk

9

Compensation Risk

2

Shareholder Rights Risk

9

Part 2 · The price and when to enter

This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Latest News

Recent headlines for ODFL, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 6/20/2026NEGATIVE
    Here's Why Old Dominion Freight Line Stock Slumped This Week

    Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) stock experienced a significant downturn this week, despite a general recovery observed in the broader freight market. The market's anticipation of this recovery appears to have already been factored into sector stock valuations, leaving little room for further upside. Investors are likely reassessing the stock's premium in light of this 'priced-in' recovery, leading to the price slump. This suggests that while the industry fundamentals are improving, ODFL may have been overvalued based on future expectations.

via Markets Gazette