Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ)
OvervaluedFundamental
68
Price
$102.56
Market Cap
$52.53B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Nasdaq runs the stock exchange that bears its name, matching buy and sell orders in real time and charging a fee for each trade, and it also licenses the Nasdaq indexes — including the Nasdaq-100 — that other firms track with their own funds. Around that original business it has built a second, larger one: software and data sold to banks, asset managers and other exchanges for tasks like detecting money laundering, managing market risk and running their own trading venues.
How it makes money
Trading generates a small fee on every matched order, so it rises and falls with market activity day to day, while index licensing earns a fee based on the assets invested in funds that track a Nasdaq index. The software and data businesses instead sell multi-year licences and subscriptions with revenue recognised over the contract term, which Nasdaq calls 'Solutions revenue' and which now makes up the larger, steadier part of the company's overall results.
Revenue by segment
Trading, clearing and listing fees earned from running the Nasdaq exchange itself and related trading venues.
Index licensing, investment intelligence and IR/governance software sold to asset managers and listed companies.
Regulatory, anti-financial-crime and marketplace-infrastructure software sold to banks, exchanges and financial firms worldwide.
Competitive moat
Network effects · NarrowAn exchange is more valuable the more buyers and sellers trade on it, since more orders mean tighter prices and easier execution, which in turn attracts still more orders — a self-reinforcing loop that is hard for a new entrant to break into. The software businesses add switching costs on top, since a bank rarely rips out compliance or trading infrastructure once it is embedded in daily operations.
What drives demand
Moderately cyclicalTrading revenue swings with market volatility and volume, rising in turbulent periods and falling in calm ones, which makes roughly half of Nasdaq's results genuinely cyclical. The software and data half is sold on multi-year contracts and renews more like a subscription business, which smooths out the swings from the exchange side.
Key risks
- Trading revenue tied to market volume — A sustained period of low market volatility and thin trading volumes reduces the fees Nasdaq earns from matching orders, a portion of revenue outside the company's control.
- Debt taken on for the Adenza acquisition — Nasdaq financed its large 2023 purchase of the financial-technology firm Adenza partly with debt, raising leverage and interest expense that must be paid down out of future cash flow.
- Regulatory scrutiny of exchange operations — As a regulated exchange operator, Nasdaq is subject to SEC oversight and rule changes that can affect fee structures, market-structure rules and how it competes with rival trading venues.
- Competition from other trading venues — Alternative trading systems and other exchanges compete for the same order flow, and technology or fee changes elsewhere can shift volume away from Nasdaq's markets.
The case for
Buyers argue that the shift toward multi-year software and data contracts makes Nasdaq's revenue steadier and more predictable than a pure exchange, that its regulatory and anti-financial-crime software is hard for banks to rip out once installed, and that owning the exchange itself still gives it a durable, well-regulated core business.
The case against
Sellers fear that the debt taken on for the Adenza acquisition limits financial flexibility, that trading revenue remains genuinely exposed to quiet markets, and that competition from other trading venues and technology firms could erode the pricing power of both the exchange and the software businesses over time.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 19, 2026, shared with all users
Owner of the New York Stock Exchange, which Nasdaq's 10-K names as its primary competitor for large-company listings, and a rival across US cash equities and options trading, market data and post-trade technology.
Runs competing US equity and options exchanges plus European venues, so it fights Nasdaq for the same order flow from brokers and market makers and for the proprietary market-data revenue that flow generates.
The largest derivatives exchange operator, competing with Nasdaq for trading and clearing volumes in equity-index and interest-rate futures and options, and for the data feeds sold to the same trading firms.
Cited by Nasdaq as a European exchange that attracts listings away from home markets, and its Data & Analytics division competes for the same market-data, index and analytics budgets at banks and asset managers.
Named in Nasdaq's 10-K among the European exchanges competing for cross-border listings, and its Eurex arm competes with Nasdaq's Nordic derivatives markets as well as in index and regulatory-reporting software.
The other pan-European exchange group named by Nasdaq, competing for the same continental European listings, cash-equity trading volumes and index licensing, including in the Nordic markets where Nasdaq operates.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$8.73B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$1.97B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$1.99B
Total Equity
$12.23B
Total Liabilities
$18.82B
Current Ratio
1.01
Interest Coverage
7.41
Debt/EBITDA
3.87
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$85.45
Current Price
$102.56
Margin of Safety
-20.0%
Fair Value Range
$64.87 - $106.03
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
29.90
ROE
14.6%
P/B Ratio
4.78
P/FCF
29.38
Gross Margin
64.3%
ROIC
8.9%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
8.9%
WACC
8.9%
ROIC − WACC
0.0 pp
ROIC is roughly in line with the cost of capital — the company is barely covering its capital cost.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (20)
- EPS shows upward trend
- Price CAGR 15.61%
- ROIC 8.9%
- Gross margin 64.3%
- P/FCF 29.38
- Debt/equity ratio
- Operating margin 29.6%
- Positive free cash flow
- CapEx intensity
- Current ratio
- Interest coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on tangible assets
- ROE 16.3%
- Revenue growth 5Y 8.0%
- Earnings surprise, average 3.2%
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 1.14
- Share dilution -0.0%
- Net margin trend 22.5% vs 18.5%
- Piotroski F-Score 9/9
Failed (6)
- EPS CAGR 4.14%
- P/B ratio 4.78
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- PEG ratio 2.51
Unavailable (1)
- Dividend payout –
Piotroski F-Score
Strong financial health
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Ms. Adena T. Friedman | CEO & Chairman | 55 |
| Mr. P. C. Nelson Griggs | President | 54 |
| Mr. Tal Cohen | President | 52 |
| Ms. Sarah M. Youngwood | Executive VP & CFO | 51 |
| Mr. Bradley J. Peterson | Executive VP, Chief Information Officer & CTO | 65 |
| Ms. Michelle Lynn Daly | Senior VP, Controller & Principal Accounting Officer | 48 |
| Mr. Ato Garrett | Senior VP & Investor Relations Officer | - |
| Mr. John A. Zecca J.D. | Executive VP and Global Chief Legal, Risk & Regulatory Officer | 57 |
| Mr. Brian Buckley | Senior VP & Chief Marketing Officer | - |
| Mr. Bryan Everard Smith | Executive VP & Chief People Officer | 52 |
Audit Risk
1
Board Risk
4
Compensation Risk
4
Shareholder Rights Risk
4
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-02-12
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-10-22
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-10-22
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much NDAQ moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 36% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 28.8%
- Volatility 90d
- 30.7%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- 0.59Correlation 0.26
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -23.9%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 2.29%
Earnings reactions
How NDAQ moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
No upcoming release on the calendar.
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 1.7% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 8, down 4 (out of 12).
- Of the 5 releases that beat estimates, the stock fell the next day after 2.
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | Before the open | 1.02 | 1.04 | +2.3% | +2.1% | +7.5% | n/a |
| Jul 23, 2026 | During the session | 1.00 | 1.07 | +6.7% | +2.4% | -0.5% | +5.1% |
| Apr 23, 2026 | During the session | 0.95 | 0.96 | +1.1% | +1.3% | +0.8% | +5.7% |
| Jan 29, 2026 | During the session | 0.93 | 0.96 | +3.0% | +1.1% | -0.6% | -10.4% |
| Oct 21, 2025 | During the session | 0.86 | 0.88 | +1.8% | +1.8% | +1.7% | -0.1% |
| Jul 24, 2025 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +1.7% | +5.9% | +8.7% |
| Apr 24, 2025 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -1.9% | +1.7% | +3.7% |
| Jan 29, 2025 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -2.4% | +0.7% | +0.7% |
| Oct 24, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -0.9% | +1.8% | +2.2% |
| Jul 25, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +3.6% | +7.2% | +7.9% |
| Apr 25, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -3.7% | -2.0% | -2.6% |
| Jan 31, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +0.3% | -1.2% | -3.6% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on NDAQ and what the price did next.
- 10/15/2026PositiveWhen Market Structure Matters, Companies Keep Choosing Nasdaq
- +1 day
- +1.6%
- +3 days
- +1.7%
- 9/29/2026PositiveThe Night Shift You Never See: How AI Agents Are Changing Capital Markets Operations
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 9/24/2026PositiveInside Nasdaq's Best-Ever Chartis RiskTech100 Result
- +1 day
- -0.9%
- +3 days
- -2.7%
- 9/14/2026PositiveHow Nasdaq is Turning Tokenized Collateral into Operating Reality on the Canton Network with Vanguard and Wellington Management
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 9/10/2026PositiveNasdaq bets big on tokenized stocks with $100 million investment in Kraken parent Payward
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 8/11/2026PositiveNasdaq to acquire LeveL Markets in push toward ‘always-on’ markets
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 7/10/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 4/21/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for NDAQ.
- 4d agoNEUTRALNasdaq Chair and CEO Adena Friedman Calls for Unified, Public-Private Collaboration to Combat the $579B Global Financial Fraud Epidemic
Nasdaq Chair and CEO Adena Friedman highlighted the escalating global financial fraud epidemic, estimated at $579 billion, during her keynote at the American Banker Most Powerful Women in Banking and Finance Gala. She advocated for a unified public-private collaboration, emphasizing an intelligence-driven strategy to combat financial crime. While this addresses a significant market risk, the call for collaboration itself does not immediately translate into a direct financial gain or loss for Nasdaq, making its immediate market impact neutral.
- 9d agoPOSITIVEWhen Market Structure Matters, Companies Keep Choosing Nasdaq
Nasdaq Inc. is benefiting from its market structure, which offers improved trading conditions including tighter spreads, deeper liquidity, and reduced volatility. This has led to a significant migration of trading volume, with approximately $2.3 trillion in switches occurring since 2020. The company's exchange is proving attractive to market participants seeking superior execution quality. For investors, this trend indicates Nasdaq's competitive advantage and its ability to capture market share, potentially leading to increased revenue and profitability for the company.
- 16d agoNEUTRALNasdaq CEO Friedman on IPO Outlook
Nasdaq CEO Adena Friedman provided insights into the exchange's IPO outlook and the potential impact of continuous trading during the Milken Asia Summit. While the discussion touched upon strategic initiatives and market dynamics, no concrete financial figures or specific forward-looking guidance were released that would directly influence investor sentiment or stock valuation at this time. The commentary offers a general perspective on Nasdaq's operational environment and future considerations.
- 25d agoPOSITIVEThe Night Shift You Never See: How AI Agents Are Changing Capital Markets Operations
Nasdaq Inc. is set to enhance capital markets operations with the integration of governed AI agents into its Calypso platform. This development aims to empower teams to investigate issues, prioritize tasks, and execute actions with greater efficiency while maintaining stringent control. The introduction of AI agents is expected to streamline workflows, reduce operational friction, and potentially unlock new levels of productivity and accuracy in financial operations. For investors, this signifies Nasdaq's commitment to technological innovation and its strategic positioning in the evolving landscape of financial technology.
- 9/24/2026POSITIVEInside Nasdaq's Best-Ever Chartis RiskTech100 Result
Nasdaq Inc. has achieved its highest-ever ranking in the Chartis RiskTech100, securing the #2 spot for 2027, a significant jump from #5 in the previous year. The company also garnered 14 category awards, a substantial increase from five awards last year. This strong performance highlights Nasdaq's growing influence and capabilities in the risk technology sector. For investors, this achievement signals robust innovation and market leadership, potentially translating into increased market share and competitive advantage.
- 9/14/2026POSITIVEHow Nasdaq is Turning Tokenized Collateral into Operating Reality on the Canton Network with Vanguard and Wellington Management
Nasdaq Inc. has successfully conducted test trades on the Canton Network, leveraging tokenized collateral with major asset managers Vanguard and Wellington Management. These trials demonstrated significant advancements in collateral mobility and operational feasibility, showcasing the practical application of tokenization in financial markets. The initiative highlights Nasdaq's commitment to innovation in digital assets and distributed ledger technology, aiming to enhance market infrastructure. For investors, this development signals Nasdaq's strategic positioning in the evolving landscape of financial technology and its potential to unlock new efficiencies and revenue streams.
- 9/10/2026POSITIVENasdaq bets big on tokenized stocks with $100 million investment in Kraken parent Payward
Nasdaq Inc. has announced a significant strategic investment of $100 million into Payward Inc., the parent company of cryptocurrency exchange Kraken. This move underscores Nasdaq's growing interest in the digital asset space, particularly in tokenized stocks. The investment reportedly values Kraken at $21 billion, signaling strong confidence in the company's growth trajectory and the burgeoning market for tokenized securities. For investors, this represents a potential diversification into blockchain-based financial instruments and a bet on Nasdaq's ability to bridge traditional and digital finance.
- 8/11/2026POSITIVENasdaq to acquire LeveL Markets in push toward ‘always-on’ markets
Nasdaq Inc. has announced its acquisition of LeveL Markets, a prominent US alternative trading system. This strategic move signals Nasdaq's aggressive expansion into the burgeoning field of tokenized securities and its commitment to developing 'always-on' market capabilities. The acquisition is expected to bolster Nasdaq's technological infrastructure and market reach, positioning it to capitalize on the evolving landscape of digital assets and extended trading hours. Investors may view this as a positive development, indicating Nasdaq's proactive strategy to innovate and secure future growth avenues in a rapidly transforming financial ecosystem.
- 7/22/2026NEUTRALNasdaq to Kick Off Tiny Companies Faster After SEC Approves Rule
Nasdaq Inc. is set to implement rule changes, approved by the SEC, aimed at expediting the delisting of struggling companies. This initiative targets the volatile 'microcap' stock segment, which has faced scrutiny over market swings and alleged manipulation. The move is designed to enhance market integrity and investor protection by removing companies that no longer meet listing standards. For investors, this could lead to a more stable trading environment for smaller-cap stocks, though it may also reduce liquidity for some highly speculative names.