PACCAR Inc. (PCAR)
Fair ValueFundamental
65
Price
$106.96
Market Cap
$58.33B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
PACCAR designs and manufactures heavy- and medium-duty trucks under the Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF brand names, sold through a network of independent dealers across North America, Europe and other markets. Beyond building trucks, it also sells replacement parts to keep existing fleets running and lends money to dealers and truck buyers through its own finance arm, so a customer can buy a truck, service it and finance it all through PACCAR.
How it makes money
Most revenue comes from selling new trucks outright to fleets and owner-operators, a business with thin margins that swings with how many trucks the industry orders each year. Parts sales are steadier and more profitable, since a truck already on the road needs maintenance regardless of the economic cycle, and the financial services arm earns interest income on loans and leases, adding a third, more stable stream on top of manufacturing.
Revenue by segment
Manufacture and sale of Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF heavy- and medium-duty trucks, the core and most cyclical part of the business.
Replacement parts sold to keep the large existing fleet of PACCAR trucks running, a steadier and higher-margin business than new truck sales.
Loans and leases provided to dealers and truck buyers across North America, Europe, Australia and South America to finance PACCAR vehicles.
Competitive moat
Scale · NarrowBuilding heavy trucks at scale requires an established dealer network, decades of engineering and emissions-compliance investment, and manufacturing capacity that a new entrant cannot assemble quickly, keeping the field limited to a handful of global players. That barrier protects PACCAR's position but does not remove genuine competition: Daimler Truck, Traton's Volvo and Scania brands, and Navistar all fight for the same fleet customers.
What drives demand
CyclicalTruck orders follow the freight cycle closely: when shipping volumes and freight rates are strong, fleets replace and expand their trucks, and when freight demand softens, orders can fall sharply within a year, as PACCAR's own truck segment revenue decline in 2025 showed. Parts and financial services smooth this out somewhat, but the core manufacturing business remains genuinely cyclical.
Key risks
- Truck order cyclicality — Truck segment revenue fell 14% year over year in the fourth quarter of 2025 as freight market conditions weakened, illustrating how quickly the core business can contract in a downturn.
- Competition from other global truck makers — Daimler Truck, Traton's Volvo, Scania and Navistar brands compete directly for the same fleet and owner-operator customers across PACCAR's core markets.
- Emissions and regulatory compliance costs — Tightening emissions standards in North America and Europe require continual investment in new engine and powertrain technology, adding cost and execution risk to every truck generation.
- Tariffs and global supply chain exposure — PACCAR sources components and sells trucks across multiple countries, so changes in tariffs or trade policy can raise costs or disrupt production and sales in a given region.
- Credit risk in the finance arm — PACCAR Financial Services holds a large portfolio of loans and leases to truck buyers; a downturn that hurts trucking businesses broadly would also raise defaults on that portfolio.
The case for
Buyers argue that PACCAR Parts keeps delivering record, high-margin revenue that cushions the cyclical truck business, that decades of engineering and dealer relationships make the company one of only a handful of credible global heavy-truck makers, and that Financial Services adds a steady profit stream through the cycle.
The case against
Sellers worry that the core truck business is genuinely cyclical and already showing a double-digit revenue decline as freight markets soften, that emissions regulation keeps forcing costly technology investment, and that competition from Daimler Truck and Traton's brands limits pricing power in a downturn.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 19, 2026, shared with all users
Its Freightliner and Western Star brands are the largest sellers of Class 8 trucks in the United States and Canada, the same fleet customers Kenworth and Peterbilt sell to, and its Mercedes-Benz Trucks unit is DAF's biggest rival in Europe.
Volvo Trucks and Mack together hold about 18% of the North American Class 8 market and Volvo Trucks is among the top European heavy-duty brands, competing with PACCAR on long-haul and vocational trucks plus the parts and service business that follows them.
Through International Motors (formerly Navistar) in North America and MAN and Scania in Europe, TRATON sells heavy and medium trucks to the same haulage fleets on both continents where PACCAR operates.
Iveco is one of the six principal competitors DAF faces in the European commercial vehicle market, disputing the same heavy- and medium-duty fleet orders across the European Union.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$27.82B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$2.50B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$3.67B
Total Equity
$19.26B
Total Liabilities
$25.07B
Current Ratio
0.71
Interest Coverage
-
Debt/EBITDA
4.53
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$125.06
Current Price
$106.96
Margin of Safety
+14.5%
Fair Value Range
$83.68 - $166.43
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
22.47
ROE
12.3%
P/B Ratio
2.77
P/FCF
15.23
Gross Margin
20.0%
ROIC
-
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
-
WACC
7.8%
ROIC − WACC
-
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (16)
- EPS shows upward trend
- Price CAGR 10.16%
- P/FCF 15.23
- P/B ratio 2.77
- Debt/equity ratio
- Positive free cash flow
- CapEx intensity
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on tangible assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- ROE 12.7%
- Revenue growth 5Y 8.7%
- PEG ratio 1.85
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 1.73
- Share dilution -0.0%
- Piotroski F-Score 5/9
Failed (6)
- EPS CAGR 1.77%
- Gross margin 20.0%
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Earnings surprise, average -1.5%
- Net margin trend 9.0% vs 9.9%
Unavailable (5)
- ROIC –
- Dividend payout –
- Operating margin –
- Current ratio
- Interest coverage
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. R. Preston Feight | CEO & Director | 57 |
| Mr. Kevin D. Baney | President | 54 |
| Mr. Brice J. Poplawski | Senior VP & CFO | 60 |
| Mr. Mark C. Pigott | Executive Chairman | 71 |
| Mr. John N. Rich | Executive VP & CTO | 55 |
| Ms. A. Lily Ley | VP & Chief Information Officer | 59 |
| Mr. Ken Hastings | Senior Director of Investor Relations | - |
| Mr. Michael K. Walton | VP & General Counsel | 59 |
| Paulo Henrique Bolgar | VP & Chief Human Resources Officer | 56 |
| Laura J. Bloch | Senior Vice President | 47 |
Audit Risk
2
Board Risk
9
Compensation Risk
4
Shareholder Rights Risk
5
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-02-18
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-07-29
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-07-28
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much PCAR moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 21% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 20.5%
- Volatility 90d
- 25.1%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- 0.90Correlation 0.43
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -22.7%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 2.31%
Earnings reactions
How PCAR moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
Oct 27, 2026 · In 3 days · Before the open
EPS estimate: 1.50Revenue estimate: $7.5B
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 4.2% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 5, down 7 (out of 12).
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28, 2026 | Before the open | 1.38 | 1.43 | +3.5% | -1.1% | +3.6% | -1.0% |
| Apr 28, 2026 | Before the open | 1.17 | 1.15 | -1.7% | +0.9% | -6.0% | -10.1% |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Before the open | 1.08 | 1.06 | -2.1% | -4.6% | -1.1% | +2.0% |
| Oct 21, 2025 | Before the open | 1.19 | 1.12 | -5.8% | +1.3% | +2.4% | +3.7% |
| Jul 22, 2025 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +3.8% | +6.1% | +8.3% |
| Apr 29, 2025 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -5.8% | -1.9% | -2.8% |
| Jan 28, 2025 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -3.4% | -2.4% | -0.7% |
| Oct 22, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -3.1% | -4.4% | -2.3% |
| Jul 23, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -9.6% | -11.0% | -9.8% |
| Apr 30, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -5.0% | -6.6% | -7.5% |
| Jan 23, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +0.7% | +4.0% | +4.4% |
| Oct 24, 2023 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +2.0% | +4.3% | +2.8% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on PCAR and what the price did next.
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for PCAR.
- 9/15/2026NEUTRALNasdaq-100® Inside the Index: PACCAR (PCAR)
This Nasdaq-100® Inside the Index feature delves into PACCAR's diverse operations, encompassing its truck manufacturing, parts sales, and financing segments. Key factors influencing its future outlook include the current freight cycle dynamics, record-breaking parts revenue, upcoming 2027 emissions regulations, and advancements in new powertrain technologies. Investors should monitor these elements for potential impacts on PACCAR's performance within the index.