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Adobe Inc. (ADBE)

Fair Value
TechnologySoftware - ApplicationUnited States

Fundamental

76

Price

$263.82

Market Cap

$95.43B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

Adobe makes the software that creative professionals, marketers and everyday users rely on to create, edit and manage digital content: Photoshop, Illustrator, Premiere Pro and Acrobat are used by designers, video editors and anyone who opens a PDF. A second, smaller business sells software that helps large companies run marketing campaigns and personalize websites. Nearly all of this reaches customers as a paid, ongoing subscription rather than a one-time software purchase.

How it makes money

Adobe charges recurring subscription fees for access to its creative and document tools, billed monthly or annually, so revenue builds up as the installed base of paying subscribers grows rather than depending on new-version sales. Its enterprise marketing software is sold through longer, higher-value contracts with large companies. Because the software is built once and resold to millions of users, additional subscribers cost little to serve, so the business carries high margins.

Revenue by segment

Digital Media74.3%

Photoshop, Illustrator, Premiere Pro, Acrobat and the Creative Cloud and Document Cloud subscriptions built around them — Adobe's core business.

Digital Experience24.7%

Software that helps large companies manage marketing campaigns, personalize websites and analyze customer data, sold on multi-year enterprise contracts.

Publishing and Advertising1.1%

A small, shrinking mix of legacy publishing tools and remaining advertising services outside Adobe's two main businesses.

Competitive moat

Switching costs · Wide

Creative professionals train for years on Photoshop and Premiere Pro, build workflows and file libraries around Adobe's formats, and work alongside colleagues who use the same tools. Switching an entire creative team, or an enterprise marketing stack, to a rival product means retraining people and rebuilding integrations most customers would rather avoid.

What drives demand

Moderately cyclical

Subscription renewals make revenue fairly steady from quarter to quarter, but new subscriber growth follows the health of the creative, marketing and small-business economy, and enterprise contract renewals depend on corporate technology budgets that get squeezed in a downturn.

Key risks

  • Generative AI disruption — Rapid advances in generative AI let competitors and even free tools generate images, video and text that used to require Adobe's software, reducing the paid seats needed for the same creative work.
  • Faster-moving competitors — Faster-moving competitors built around AI and browser-based collaboration are winning share in design and video, particularly among smaller customers and price-sensitive segments.
  • Subscription churn — Adobe's business depends on customers renewing subscriptions rather than buying software once; price increases or a weaker economy can push customers to cancel or downgrade.
  • Cybersecurity and data breaches — A breach involving customer content, creative files or payment data stored in Adobe's cloud services could damage trust in a business built on recurring access.

Customer concentration

Adobe states that no single customer accounted for 10% or more of revenue in any recent year; its subscriber base is broad enough that no one customer's decisions materially move results.

The case for

Buyers argue that decades of entrenched workflows around Photoshop, Premiere and Acrobat, now paired with Adobe's own generative AI tools built into the same subscriptions, make switching costly enough that the company can keep raising prices and adding AI features without losing its base.

The case against

Sellers fear that free or cheaper AI tools increasingly replace tasks that used to require a paid Adobe seat, that nimbler competitors are winning the youngest and most price-sensitive customers, and that a subscription business can lose ground quietly through cancellations before it shows up in growth numbers.

Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated with artificial intelligence on August 23, 2026, shared with all users

P/E: 29.2Score: 78Market cap: $3.93T

Named by Adobe among its Digital Media competitors, Microsoft bundles document, design and video tools (Microsoft 365 with PDF editing, Designer, Clipchamp) into subscriptions bought by the same business professionals and consumers who buy Acrobat and Adobe Express.

P/E: 22.7Score: 83Market cap: $198.98B

Listed by Adobe as a Digital Experience competitor, Salesforce sells Marketing Cloud, Data Cloud and Commerce Cloud to the same enterprise marketing departments that Adobe Experience Cloud, Marketo Engage and Adobe Commerce are sold to.

P/E: 52.0Score: 80Market cap: $13.95B

DocuSign's e-signature and agreement-workflow subscriptions compete head-on with Adobe Acrobat Sign for the document business that generates Adobe's Acrobat revenue.

Canva Pty LtdNot tracked

Canva's browser-based design platform targets the same everyday creators, marketers and small businesses that Adobe serves with Express and the lighter end of Creative Cloud, and its template-driven approach competes for the same subscription spend.

Figma, Inc.FIG

Figma sells collaborative interface- and product-design tools to the same professional design teams Adobe courts with Photoshop, Illustrator and its discontinued XD, a rivalry Adobe itself acknowledged with an attempted $20 billion acquisition.

Corel Corporation (Alludo)Not tracked

Named by Adobe in its own competition disclosure, Corel offers CorelDRAW, Painter and Pinnacle Studio as lower-priced, often perpetual-licence alternatives to Illustrator, Photoshop and Premiere Pro for illustrators, photographers and video editors.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$25.97B

Trailing 12 months (through 8/28/2026)

Net Income

$7.28B

Trailing 12 months (through 8/28/2026)

Free Cash Flow

$9.85B

Total Equity

$11.62B

Total Liabilities

$17.87B

Current Ratio

0.77

Interest Coverage

35.66

Debt/EBITDA

0.71

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

General caseFairly Valued

Fair Value

$270.80

Current Price

$263.82

Margin of Safety

+2.6%

Fair Value Range

$176.88 - $364.72

Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.

Estimation Methods

Analyst price target:$272.31
Discounted cash flow (DCF):$372.97
Earnings multiple (P/E):$157.45
Graham growth formula:$417.98
Earnings power value (EPV):$151.13
Justified P/B:$173.94
Dividend discount (Gordon):Not enough data to compute it
P/FFO, funds from operations:$326.74
Mid-cycle earnings:$432.93
Revenue multiple:$354.47
Last Earnings Surprise:-1.26%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

14.73

ROE

61.3%

P/B Ratio

8.73

P/FCF

9.69

Gross Margin

89.3%

ROIC

40.5%

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

40.5%

WACC

11.7%

ROIC − WACC

+28.8 pp

ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (20)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 15.70%
  • Price CAGR 8.86%
  • ROIC 40.5%
  • Gross margin 89.3%
  • P/FCF 9.69
  • Debt/equity ratio
  • Operating margin 35.7%
  • Positive free cash flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current ratio
  • Interest coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on tangible assets
  • ROE 62.9%
  • Revenue growth 5Y 13.1%
  • PEG ratio 1.45
  • Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 1.48
  • Share dilution -5.1%
  • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

Failed (6)

  • P/B ratio 8.73
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Earnings surprise, average 0.1%
  • Net margin trend 28.0% vs 30.0%

Unavailable (1)

  • Dividend payout –

Piotroski F-Score

7/9

Strong financial health

ROA > 0
Operating cash flow > 0
ΔROA > 0
Cash flow > net income
Leverage ↓
Current ratio ↑
No dilution
Gross margin ↑
Asset turnover ↑

Earnings Quality

1.48

High quality: earnings backed by cash

Share Dilution

-5.1%

Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly

Institutional Holdings

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Mr. Shantanu NarayenChairman & CEO61
Ms. Adele Louise PentlandEVP of Legal & Government Relations, Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary53
Mr. David WadhwaniPresident of Creativity & Productivity Business53
Dr. Anil S. ChakravarthyPresident of Customer Experience Orchestration Business57
Mr. Steven DayInterim CFO and Senior VP of Finance, Technology, Security & Operations57
Ms. Jillian ForuszSenior VP, Chief Accounting Officer & Corporate Controller50
Mr. Douglas G. Clark C.F.A.Vice President of Investor Relations-
Ms. Lara H. BalazsChief Marketing Officer & Executive Vice President of Global Marketing55
Ms. Gloria ChenChief People Officer & Executive VP of Employee Experience60
Mr. Shanmugh NatarajanMD of India & VP of Products-

Audit Risk

1

Board Risk

6

Compensation Risk

10

Shareholder Rights Risk

1

Documents

  • Annual Report (10-K)

    A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.

    Filed on 2026-01-15

    View document
  • Quarterly Report (10-Q)

    A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.

    Filed on 2026-09-22

    View document
  • Current Report (8-K)

    An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.

    Filed on 2026-09-10

    View document

via SEC EDGAR

Income History

via SEC EDGAR

Part 2 · The price and its context

This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Market Reaction Profile

How much ADBE moves, measured on its daily prices.

VolatilityMedium

More volatile than 69% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).

Volatility 30d
41.1%
Volatility 90d
45.8%
Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
0.26Correlation 0.08
Max drawdown (12m)
-46.3%
ATR (14d, % of price)
3.43%

Earnings reactions

How ADBE moved around its past quarterly results.

Next earnings release

Dec 9, 2026 · In 46 days · Time not known

EPS estimate: 6.33Revenue estimate: $6.8B

What usually happens

  • Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 7.2% the next day, up or down.
  • Next-day moves: up 3, down 9 (out of 12).

Release history

DateWhen EPS est.EPS actualSurprise Gap 1 day5 days
Sep 10, 2026After the close5.945.96+0.4% -2.7% +1.4% +1.5%
Jun 11, 2026After the close5.996.06+1.2% -7.5% -6.8% -10.8%
Mar 12, 2026After the close5.505.500.0% -7.7% -7.6% -8.8%
Dec 10, 2025After the closen/an/an/a-0.4% +2.1% +3.4%
Sep 11, 2025After the closen/an/an/a+3.0% -0.3% +4.8%
Jun 12, 2025After the closen/an/an/a-5.1% -5.3% -8.9%
Mar 12, 2025After the closen/an/an/a-7.6% -13.9% -11.6%
Dec 11, 2024After the closen/an/an/a-11.4% -13.7% -19.8%
Sep 12, 2024After the closen/an/an/a-9.2% -8.5% -10.2%
Jun 13, 2024After the closen/an/an/a+15.6% +14.5% +16.3%
Mar 14, 2024After the closen/an/an/a-12.4% -13.7% -10.4%
Dec 13, 2023After the closen/an/an/a-5.0% -6.3% -4.5%

Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.

Updated 10/24/2026

Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.

Price reaction to the news

Latest news on ADBE and what the price did next.

Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.

Latest News

Recent headlines for ADBE.

  • 8d agoNEGATIVE
    Adobe Analysts Have Never Been So Bearish as AI Fears Mount

    Analyst sentiment towards Adobe Inc. has reached an all-time low, driven by increasing concerns about its ability to compete in the rapidly evolving artificial intelligence landscape. The prevailing market view suggests that Adobe may face significant challenges in adapting its software offerings for creative professionals to the demands of the AI era. This growing bearishness among analysts could signal potential headwinds for the company's future growth and market position, prompting investors to re-evaluate their holdings.

  • 12d agoNEGATIVE
    Le azioni Adobe calano dopo il downgrade di Wells Fargo

    Adobe Inc. shares experienced a significant decline following a two-notch downgrade by Wells Fargo, which cited deteriorating underlying growth, intensified competition, and challenges in AI monetization. The brokerage firm reduced its rating to 'Underweight' from 'Equal Weight' and slashed the price target to $225 from $270, indicating a potential downside of over 5%. Wells Fargo highlighted that Adobe's growth headwinds appear structural, with acquisitions masking underlying pressures in its core business. This downgrade suggests a challenging outlook for Adobe investors, potentially impacting future revenue streams and market position.

  • 16d agoNEUTRAL
    Adobe +3,6% vs Microsoft in calo: perché il divieto sui green card ha spaccato BigTech

    Adobe Inc. (ADBE) shares surged 3.56% to $241.05 on October 8, contrasting with Microsoft's 1.35% decline to $522.61, despite both tech giants being impacted by U.S. immigration policy changes affecting the PERM labor certification program. The divergent stock performance suggests investors are weighing the news differently. Adobe's gains may be attributed to its recent valuation reassessment and early signs of AI product monetization, overshadowing the immigration policy's potential disruption. Microsoft's stock, however, faced broader selling pressure.

  • 9/11/2026NEGATIVE
    Analista: il calo post-utili di Adobe non è solo per i timori sull'IA

    Adobe shares experienced a significant decline, opening down on September 11th, a move senior analyst Gil Luria of D.A. Davidson deems justified despite his 'Buy' rating and $250 price target. While acknowledging concerns about AI disruption impacting Adobe's software business in 2026, Luria points out that AI fears are not the sole driver of the stock's underperformance. The stock is already down over 25% year-to-date. Investors are also grappling with recent executive leadership changes, which are further weighing on the stock's valuation and investor sentiment.

  • 9/10/2026NEGATIVE
    Adobe’s latest earnings leave Wall Street wanting more

    Adobe reported earnings that failed to meet Wall Street's elevated expectations, prompting an analyst to comment that simply meeting forecasts is insufficient in the current market climate. While specific figures were not detailed in the provided snippet, the sentiment suggests a performance shortfall relative to consensus estimates. This outcome could signal underlying challenges in Adobe's business operations or market positioning, potentially leading to a reassessment of its growth prospects by investors and a downward pressure on its stock price.

  • 9/10/2026NEUTRAL
    Le azioni Adobe sono calate dopo 15 degli ultimi 20 utili: l'AI può cambiarlo?

    Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE) is set to report its third-quarter fiscal results, with analysts projecting revenues around $6.69 billion and adjusted earnings per share of approximately $6.08. Despite consistently beating Wall Street's expectations, Adobe's stock has a history of declining post-earnings, having fallen after 15 of the last 20 reports. The stock closed at $254.86 on Wednesday, down approximately 27% year-to-date. While Adobe continues to meet earnings targets, investor sentiment appears to hinge on future growth drivers, potentially related to AI integration, to reverse the negative trend.

  • 9/8/2026POSITIVE
    These software stocks are in a prime spot to benefit from a rapidly shifting AI landscape

    Adobe Inc. has been identified as a top software company poised to capitalize on the evolving AI landscape, particularly due to its strong cash generation capabilities. This positions Adobe favorably against sector peers like Microsoft and Oracle, which were noted for lower cash generation in the same analysis. The company's robust financial health, underscored by its cash generation metrics, suggests a strong foundation for continued investment in AI research and development, potentially leading to innovative product offerings and sustained market leadership. Investors may view this as a positive indicator of future growth and profitability.

  • 9/4/2026NEGATIVE
    Azioni Adobe -7% dopo la nomina del nuovo CEO e il rimpasto ai vertici

    Adobe Inc. shares plummeted nearly 7% following the announcement of a significant leadership transition. Anil Chakravarthy is set to assume the roles of President and CEO on December 1, 2026, succeeding Shantanu Narayen, who will move to Executive Chairman. While Narayen expressed confidence in Chakravarthy's expertise and the company's future growth prospects, the market reacted negatively to the news. This leadership change occurs amidst intensified competition and evolving AI integration challenges within the software sector, raising investor concerns about the company's strategic direction and ability to navigate these pressures.