Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
Fair ValueFundamental
71
Price
$524.51
Market Cap
$3.93T
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Microsoft sells software and cloud computing to businesses and consumers. Its products span office productivity software, business applications, operating systems, video games, and — its largest growth engine — Azure, a rented computing platform that lets other companies run their own software and AI models on Microsoft's data centres instead of building their own.
How it makes money
Most revenue is recurring: Office, many business applications and parts of Windows are sold as subscriptions billed monthly or annually, and Azure is billed by the amount of computing capacity a customer actually consumes. This makes revenue far more predictable than a company that sells one-off licences or hardware, and gives Microsoft visibility into future revenue through signed but not yet delivered cloud contracts.
Revenue by segment
Office 365, LinkedIn, and Dynamics business applications — mostly subscription revenue billed to companies and individual users.
Azure cloud computing and server products. The fastest-growing segment and the one most tied to AI infrastructure spending.
Windows licensing, Surface devices, gaming (Xbox) and Bing search advertising — the slowest-growing segment, tied to PC and console sales.
Competitive moat
Switching costs · WideBusinesses run their email, documents, identity management and internal tools on Microsoft's stack, and migrating any one of these to a competitor requires retraining staff and rebuilding integrations across the whole company. Azure adds a second layer of lock-in once a customer's applications are built to run on it. The result is a customer base that rarely leaves even when a rival product is technically comparable.
What drives demand
Moderately cyclicalSubscription software revenue is fairly steady because it renews automatically and businesses rarely cancel core tools like email or Office. Azure and PC-related revenue are more sensitive to the economic cycle, since cloud spending can be optimised down in a downturn and PC sales track corporate refresh budgets and consumer discretionary spending.
Key risks
- Intense cloud competition — Azure competes against Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud, both well-capitalised and investing heavily in the same AI infrastructure. Price competition and customer negotiating power in this market can compress margins.
- Regulatory and antitrust scrutiny — Microsoft's size and bundling practices across Office, Windows, Teams and cloud services draw sustained antitrust attention in the US, EU and elsewhere, which can force product changes or result in fines.
- Heavy AI infrastructure spending — Microsoft is committing very large sums to data centres and chips to meet AI demand. If that demand grows more slowly than the capacity being built, the return on this spending falls short.
- Cybersecurity incidents — As the operator of identity, email and cloud infrastructure for a large share of the world's businesses, a serious security breach involving Microsoft's own systems would damage trust across its entire customer base at once.
The case for
Buyers argue that Microsoft's grip on business software gives it a captive customer base to sell Azure and AI tools into, that Intelligent Cloud growth still has years to run as more computing shifts off-premises, and that recurring subscription revenue makes the business unusually resilient through downturns.
The case against
Sellers fear that AI infrastructure spending is outrunning proven demand, that antitrust pressure could eventually force apart the bundling that keeps customers locked in, and that Azure's growth rate must keep decelerating simply because the base it is growing from is now so large.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 19, 2026, shared with all users
AWS is Azure's primary rival for the same enterprise cloud infrastructure and platform budgets, with the two together taking roughly half of global cloud spending.
Oracle sells database, enterprise applications and OCI cloud capacity to the same large corporate IT departments Microsoft targets with SQL Server, Dynamics 365 and Azure.
Salesforce is the leading rival to Microsoft Dynamics 365 in cloud CRM and customer-service software, and both now sell AI agents on top of that same install base.
IBM competes for the same hybrid-cloud, middleware and enterprise IT-services contracts with large regulated customers, through Red Hat and its consulting arm.
SAP competes directly with Microsoft Dynamics 365 for enterprise resource planning deployments, especially among mid-size and large European manufacturers.
Google competes with Microsoft on three fronts at once: Google Cloud against Azure, Google Workspace against Microsoft 365, and Google Search against Bing for advertising revenue.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$331.84B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$133.75B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$66.99B
Total Equity
$442.39B
Total Liabilities
$315.99B
Current Ratio
1.23
Interest Coverage
50.88
Debt/EBITDA
0.66
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$451.48
Current Price
$524.51
Margin of Safety
-16.2%
Fair Value Range
$293.46 - $609.50
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
29.22
ROE
30.2%
P/B Ratio
8.80
P/FCF
58.14
Gross Margin
67.9%
ROIC
20.8%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
20.8%
WACC
10.1%
ROIC − WACC
+10.8 pp
ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (20)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR 13.39%
- Price CAGR 23.20%
- ROIC 20.8%
- Gross margin 67.9%
- Debt/equity ratio
- Operating margin 46.8%
- Positive free cash flow
- Current ratio
- Interest coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on tangible assets
- ROE 33.2%
- Revenue growth 5Y 14.6%
- Earnings surprise, average 6.4%
- PEG ratio 1.69
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 1.37
- Share dilution -0.2%
- Net margin trend 40.3% vs 36.1%
- Piotroski F-Score 6/9
Failed (6)
- P/FCF 58.14
- P/B ratio 8.80
- CapEx intensity
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
Unavailable (1)
- Dividend payout –
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Satya Nadella | Chairman & CEO | 58 |
| Mr. Bradford L. Smith LCA | President & Vice Chairman | 66 |
| Ms. Amy E. Hood | Executive VP & CFO | 53 |
| Mr. Takeshi Numoto | Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer | 54 |
| Mr. Judson B. Althoff | Executive VP & CEO of Commercial Business | 52 |
| Ms. Carolina Dybeck Happe | Executive VP & COO | 53 |
| Ms. Alice L. Jolla | Corporate VP & Chief Accounting Officer | 59 |
| Mr. Matthew Kerner | CTO & Corporate VP of Worldwide Sales and Solutions | - |
| Jonathan Neilson | Vice President of Investor Relations | - |
| Mr. Jonathan M. Palmer | Corporate Vice President & Chief Legal Officer | - |
Audit Risk
9
Board Risk
7
Compensation Risk
5
Shareholder Rights Risk
2
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-07-29
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-04-29
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-09-02
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much MSFT moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 51% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 22.1%
- Volatility 90d
- 36.6%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- 1.02Correlation 0.39
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -34.9%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 2.15%
Earnings reactions
How MSFT moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
Oct 28, 2026 · In 4 days · After the close
EPS estimate: 4.72Revenue estimate: $90.7B
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 3.9% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 5, down 7 (out of 12).
- Of the 6 releases that beat estimates, the stock fell the next day after 3.
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | After the close | 4.33 | 4.74 | +9.5% | +12.1% | +15.5% | +24.8% |
| Apr 29, 2026 | After the close | 4.14 | 4.27 | +3.1% | -3.2% | -3.9% | -2.5% |
| Jan 28, 2026 | After the close | 4.03 | 4.14 | +2.6% | -8.6% | -10.0% | -14.0% |
| Oct 29, 2025 | After the close | 3.74 | 4.13 | +10.5% | -2.0% | -2.9% | -6.4% |
| Jul 30, 2025 | After the close | 3.44 | 3.65 | +6.2% | +8.2% | +3.9% | +2.3% |
| Apr 30, 2025 | After the close | 3.28 | 3.46 | +5.3% | +9.1% | +7.6% | +9.6% |
| Jan 29, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -5.3% | -6.2% | -6.6% |
| Oct 30, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -4.0% | -6.1% | -2.9% |
| Jul 30, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -0.6% | -1.1% | -5.5% |
| Apr 25, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +3.3% | +1.8% | -0.3% |
| Jan 30, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -0.4% | -2.7% | -0.8% |
| Oct 24, 2023 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +4.4% | +3.1% | +2.3% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on MSFT and what the price did next.
- 10/21/2026NegativeMicrosoft and Alphabet opt out of tokenized stocks—the latest blow to an ambitious plan to shake up trading
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 10/20/2026PositiveNasdaq-100® Inside the Index: Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
- +1 day
- -0.6%
- +3 days
- -2.0%
- 10/17/2026PositiveMicrosoft, Shopify and 3 more AI stocks that are favorite Wall Street earnings plays
- +1 day
- +0.4%
- +3 days
- -0.6%
- 10/16/2026Negative¿Por qué el frenesí de deuda por la IA inquieta a los mercados?
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 10/15/2026PositivePerché il titolo Microsoft sale oggi nonostante il selloff dell'AI
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 10/13/2026PositiveLe azioni Microsoft si avvicinano ai massimi storici: ecco perché
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 10/13/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 10/12/2026NegativeHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 10/12/2026NegativeHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 10/12/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for MSFT.
- 3d agoNEGATIVEMicrosoft and Alphabet opt out of tokenized stocks—the latest blow to an ambitious plan to shake up trading
Microsoft and Alphabet are among sixteen companies that have opted out of plans to trade tokenized versions of their shares on the OKXICE platform. This decision represents a significant setback for the ambitious initiative aimed at revolutionizing stock trading through blockchain technology. The reluctance of major tech players to participate raises concerns about the viability and adoption of tokenized securities in the mainstream financial market. Investors may view this as a sign of caution from established corporations regarding new, disruptive technologies, potentially impacting sentiment towards similar future ventures.
- 3d agoNEUTRALMicrosoft and Alphabet object to blockchain versions of their shares—but their veto only goes so far
Microsoft and Alphabet are among sixteen companies that have objected to plans for trading tokenized versions of their shares on the OKXICE platform. While these companies have voiced their opposition, their veto power is limited, suggesting that the trading of tokenized shares may proceed despite their objections. This development highlights the ongoing tension between traditional corporate structures and the emerging world of blockchain-based financial instruments. Investors should monitor how this regulatory and corporate standoff evolves, as it could set precedents for future digital asset integration within established markets.
- 4d agoPOSITIVENasdaq-100® Inside the Index: Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is highlighted within the Nasdaq-100® index for its significant advancements in AI, work software, and Azure cloud services. The company has achieved an impressive annual run-rate of $37 billion in AI revenue, underscoring its strong market position. Furthermore, its Azure cloud platform demonstrated robust growth, expanding by 41% in fiscal year 2026. These metrics indicate substantial momentum and innovation, positioning Microsoft favorably for continued investor interest and potential stock appreciation.
- 7d agoPOSITIVEMicrosoft, Shopify and 3 more AI stocks that are favorite Wall Street earnings plays
Microsoft, alongside Shopify and three other AI-focused technology firms, has been identified by Wall Street analysts as a top contender for significant positive earnings surprises as the earnings season commences. These companies are poised to potentially outperform consensus estimates, driven by advancements and adoption in artificial intelligence technologies. Investors are closely watching these AI plays for indications of sustained growth and innovation, which could lead to upward stock price movements and reinforce their positions as market leaders.
- 8d agoNEUTRALMicrosoft wants to make AI cheaper. Will investors actually see the savings?
Microsoft is developing custom AI chips, a strategic move aimed at reducing the significant operational costs associated with AI development and deployment. While the company anticipates these chips will eventually lower expenses, the actual financial benefits for investors remain uncertain. The complexity of the AI ecosystem and the substantial upfront investment required for chip development mean that the cost savings may not be immediately apparent or directly translate into enhanced shareholder returns. Investors will be closely monitoring the long-term impact on margins and profitability.
- 8d agoNEGATIVE¿Por qué el frenesí de deuda por la IA inquieta a los mercados?
Credit Default Swaps (CDS) for major tech firms including Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, and Amazon have seen a significant surge since 2025. This indicates increased perceived risk in the market regarding these companies' ability to service their debt. Wall Street is beginning to question whether the current boom in Artificial Intelligence development will adequately justify the substantial debt burdens these companies are accumulating. The rising CDS spreads suggest a growing concern among investors about the sustainability of AI-driven growth and its financial implications.
- 9d agoPOSITIVEPerché il titolo Microsoft sale oggi nonostante il selloff dell'AI
Microsoft shares climbed Thursday, with five Wall Street firms raising price targets, driven by robust demand for its Azure cloud platform and increasing enterprise adoption of AI. This positive momentum occurred despite a broader downturn in the AI sector. The stock saw a 1.12% increase to $539.67, recovering from a prior session's 1.8% loss. Analysts from TD Cowen, Mizuho, Citi, UBS, and Jefferies reiterated positive ratings and boosted their price objectives, signaling strong confidence in Microsoft's cloud and AI integration strategies. The company's stock had previously closed at a record high of $543.45 on Tuesday, underscoring its sustained market strength.
- 11d agoPOSITIVELe azioni Microsoft si avvicinano ai massimi storici: ecco perché
Microsoft's stock is nearing an all-time closing high, trading at $548 after an 1.84% surge to $551.15 on Tuesday. The company's market capitalization has surpassed $4 trillion, driven by expansion in its AI infrastructure. This upward momentum positions MSFT for its first record close since October 28, 2025, when shares finished at $542.07. The stock's performance indicates strong investor confidence and potential for continued growth, fueled by its strategic AI investments.