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Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)

Fair Value
TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureUnited States

Fundamental

71

Price

$524.51

Market Cap

$3.93T

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

Microsoft sells software and cloud computing to businesses and consumers. Its products span office productivity software, business applications, operating systems, video games, and — its largest growth engine — Azure, a rented computing platform that lets other companies run their own software and AI models on Microsoft's data centres instead of building their own.

How it makes money

Most revenue is recurring: Office, many business applications and parts of Windows are sold as subscriptions billed monthly or annually, and Azure is billed by the amount of computing capacity a customer actually consumes. This makes revenue far more predictable than a company that sells one-off licences or hardware, and gives Microsoft visibility into future revenue through signed but not yet delivered cloud contracts.

Revenue by segment

Productivity and Business Processes42.2%

Office 365, LinkedIn, and Dynamics business applications — mostly subscription revenue billed to companies and individual users.

Intelligent Cloud41.5%

Azure cloud computing and server products. The fastest-growing segment and the one most tied to AI infrastructure spending.

More Personal Computing16.3%

Windows licensing, Surface devices, gaming (Xbox) and Bing search advertising — the slowest-growing segment, tied to PC and console sales.

Competitive moat

Switching costs · Wide

Businesses run their email, documents, identity management and internal tools on Microsoft's stack, and migrating any one of these to a competitor requires retraining staff and rebuilding integrations across the whole company. Azure adds a second layer of lock-in once a customer's applications are built to run on it. The result is a customer base that rarely leaves even when a rival product is technically comparable.

What drives demand

Moderately cyclical

Subscription software revenue is fairly steady because it renews automatically and businesses rarely cancel core tools like email or Office. Azure and PC-related revenue are more sensitive to the economic cycle, since cloud spending can be optimised down in a downturn and PC sales track corporate refresh budgets and consumer discretionary spending.

Key risks

  • Intense cloud competition — Azure competes against Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud, both well-capitalised and investing heavily in the same AI infrastructure. Price competition and customer negotiating power in this market can compress margins.
  • Regulatory and antitrust scrutiny — Microsoft's size and bundling practices across Office, Windows, Teams and cloud services draw sustained antitrust attention in the US, EU and elsewhere, which can force product changes or result in fines.
  • Heavy AI infrastructure spending — Microsoft is committing very large sums to data centres and chips to meet AI demand. If that demand grows more slowly than the capacity being built, the return on this spending falls short.
  • Cybersecurity incidents — As the operator of identity, email and cloud infrastructure for a large share of the world's businesses, a serious security breach involving Microsoft's own systems would damage trust across its entire customer base at once.

The case for

Buyers argue that Microsoft's grip on business software gives it a captive customer base to sell Azure and AI tools into, that Intelligent Cloud growth still has years to run as more computing shifts off-premises, and that recurring subscription revenue makes the business unusually resilient through downturns.

The case against

Sellers fear that AI infrastructure spending is outrunning proven demand, that antitrust pressure could eventually force apart the bundling that keeps customers locked in, and that Azure's growth rate must keep decelerating simply because the base it is growing from is now so large.

Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated with artificial intelligence on September 19, 2026, shared with all users

P/E: 20.0Score: 77Market cap: $2.70T

AWS is Azure's primary rival for the same enterprise cloud infrastructure and platform budgets, with the two together taking roughly half of global cloud spending.

P/E: 19.8Score: 66Market cap: $390.46B

Oracle sells database, enterprise applications and OCI cloud capacity to the same large corporate IT departments Microsoft targets with SQL Server, Dynamics 365 and Azure.

P/E: 22.7Score: 83Market cap: $198.98B

Salesforce is the leading rival to Microsoft Dynamics 365 in cloud CRM and customer-service software, and both now sell AI agents on top of that same install base.

P/E: 22.5Score: 60Market cap: $236.91B

IBM competes for the same hybrid-cloud, middleware and enterprise IT-services contracts with large regulated customers, through Red Hat and its consulting arm.

SAP SESAPGF
P/E: 29.8Score: 65Market cap: $229.94B

SAP competes directly with Microsoft Dynamics 365 for enterprise resource planning deployments, especially among mid-size and large European manufacturers.

Alphabet Inc. (Google)GOOGL

Google competes with Microsoft on three fronts at once: Google Cloud against Azure, Google Workspace against Microsoft 365, and Google Search against Bing for advertising revenue.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$331.84B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Net Income

$133.75B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Free Cash Flow

$66.99B

Total Equity

$442.39B

Total Liabilities

$315.99B

Current Ratio

1.23

Interest Coverage

50.88

Debt/EBITDA

0.66

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

General caseFairly Valued

Fair Value

$451.48

Current Price

$524.51

Margin of Safety

-16.2%

Fair Value Range

$293.46 - $609.50

Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.

Estimation Methods

Analyst price target:$599.24
Discounted cash flow (DCF):$291.74
Earnings multiple (P/E):$434.23
Graham growth formula:$683.33
Earnings power value (EPV):$159.58
Justified P/B:$275.55
Dividend discount (Gordon):$58.60
P/FFO, funds from operations:Not enough data to compute it
Mid-cycle earnings:$372.08
Revenue multiple:$240.44
Last Earnings Surprise:+9.53%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

29.22

ROE

30.2%

P/B Ratio

8.80

P/FCF

58.14

Gross Margin

67.9%

ROIC

20.8%

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

20.8%

WACC

10.1%

ROIC − WACC

+10.8 pp

ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (20)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 13.39%
  • Price CAGR 23.20%
  • ROIC 20.8%
  • Gross margin 67.9%
  • Debt/equity ratio
  • Operating margin 46.8%
  • Positive free cash flow
  • Current ratio
  • Interest coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on tangible assets
  • ROE 33.2%
  • Revenue growth 5Y 14.6%
  • Earnings surprise, average 6.4%
  • PEG ratio 1.69
  • Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 1.37
  • Share dilution -0.2%
  • Net margin trend 40.3% vs 36.1%
  • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

Failed (6)

  • P/FCF 58.14
  • P/B ratio 8.80
  • CapEx intensity
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)

Unavailable (1)

  • Dividend payout –

Piotroski F-Score

6/9

Mixed signals: some areas need attention

ROA > 0
Operating cash flow > 0
ΔROA > 0
Cash flow > net income
Leverage ↓
Current ratio ↑
No dilution
Gross margin ↑
Asset turnover ↑

Earnings Quality

1.37

High quality: earnings backed by cash

Share Dilution

-0.2%

Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly

Institutional Holdings

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Mr. Satya NadellaChairman & CEO58
Mr. Bradford L. Smith LCAPresident & Vice Chairman66
Ms. Amy E. HoodExecutive VP & CFO53
Mr. Takeshi NumotoExecutive VP & Chief Marketing Officer54
Mr. Judson B. AlthoffExecutive VP & CEO of Commercial Business52
Ms. Carolina Dybeck HappeExecutive VP & COO53
Ms. Alice L. JollaCorporate VP & Chief Accounting Officer59
Mr. Matthew KernerCTO & Corporate VP of Worldwide Sales and Solutions-
Jonathan NeilsonVice President of Investor Relations-
Mr. Jonathan M. PalmerCorporate Vice President & Chief Legal Officer-

Audit Risk

9

Board Risk

7

Compensation Risk

5

Shareholder Rights Risk

2

Documents

  • Annual Report (10-K)

    A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.

    Filed on 2026-07-29

    View document
  • Quarterly Report (10-Q)

    A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.

    Filed on 2026-04-29

    View document
  • Current Report (8-K)

    An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.

    Filed on 2026-09-02

    View document

via SEC EDGAR

Income History

via SEC EDGAR

Part 2 · The price and its context

This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Market Reaction Profile

How much MSFT moves, measured on its daily prices.

VolatilityMedium

More volatile than 51% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).

Volatility 30d
22.1%
Volatility 90d
36.6%
Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
1.02Correlation 0.39
Max drawdown (12m)
-34.9%
ATR (14d, % of price)
2.15%

Earnings reactions

How MSFT moved around its past quarterly results.

Next earnings release

Oct 28, 2026 · In 4 days · After the close

EPS estimate: 4.72Revenue estimate: $90.7B

What usually happens

  • Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 3.9% the next day, up or down.
  • Next-day moves: up 5, down 7 (out of 12).
  • Of the 6 releases that beat estimates, the stock fell the next day after 3.

Release history

DateWhen EPS est.EPS actualSurprise Gap 1 day5 days
Jul 29, 2026After the close4.334.74+9.5% +12.1% +15.5% +24.8%
Apr 29, 2026After the close4.144.27+3.1% -3.2% -3.9% -2.5%
Jan 28, 2026After the close4.034.14+2.6% -8.6% -10.0% -14.0%
Oct 29, 2025After the close3.744.13+10.5% -2.0% -2.9% -6.4%
Jul 30, 2025After the close3.443.65+6.2% +8.2% +3.9% +2.3%
Apr 30, 2025After the close3.283.46+5.3% +9.1% +7.6% +9.6%
Jan 29, 2025After the closen/an/an/a-5.3% -6.2% -6.6%
Oct 30, 2024After the closen/an/an/a-4.0% -6.1% -2.9%
Jul 30, 2024After the closen/an/an/a-0.6% -1.1% -5.5%
Apr 25, 2024After the closen/an/an/a+3.3% +1.8% -0.3%
Jan 30, 2024After the closen/an/an/a-0.4% -2.7% -0.8%
Oct 24, 2023After the closen/an/an/a+4.4% +3.1% +2.3%

Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.

Updated 10/24/2026

Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.

Price reaction to the news

Latest news on MSFT and what the price did next.

Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.

Latest News

Recent headlines for MSFT.

  • 3d agoNEGATIVE
    Microsoft and Alphabet opt out of tokenized stocks—the latest blow to an ambitious plan to shake up trading

    Microsoft and Alphabet are among sixteen companies that have opted out of plans to trade tokenized versions of their shares on the OKXICE platform. This decision represents a significant setback for the ambitious initiative aimed at revolutionizing stock trading through blockchain technology. The reluctance of major tech players to participate raises concerns about the viability and adoption of tokenized securities in the mainstream financial market. Investors may view this as a sign of caution from established corporations regarding new, disruptive technologies, potentially impacting sentiment towards similar future ventures.

  • 3d agoNEUTRAL
    Microsoft and Alphabet object to blockchain versions of their shares—but their veto only goes so far

    Microsoft and Alphabet are among sixteen companies that have objected to plans for trading tokenized versions of their shares on the OKXICE platform. While these companies have voiced their opposition, their veto power is limited, suggesting that the trading of tokenized shares may proceed despite their objections. This development highlights the ongoing tension between traditional corporate structures and the emerging world of blockchain-based financial instruments. Investors should monitor how this regulatory and corporate standoff evolves, as it could set precedents for future digital asset integration within established markets.

  • 4d agoPOSITIVE
    Nasdaq-100® Inside the Index: Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)

    Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is highlighted within the Nasdaq-100® index for its significant advancements in AI, work software, and Azure cloud services. The company has achieved an impressive annual run-rate of $37 billion in AI revenue, underscoring its strong market position. Furthermore, its Azure cloud platform demonstrated robust growth, expanding by 41% in fiscal year 2026. These metrics indicate substantial momentum and innovation, positioning Microsoft favorably for continued investor interest and potential stock appreciation.

  • 7d agoPOSITIVE
    Microsoft, Shopify and 3 more AI stocks that are favorite Wall Street earnings plays

    Microsoft, alongside Shopify and three other AI-focused technology firms, has been identified by Wall Street analysts as a top contender for significant positive earnings surprises as the earnings season commences. These companies are poised to potentially outperform consensus estimates, driven by advancements and adoption in artificial intelligence technologies. Investors are closely watching these AI plays for indications of sustained growth and innovation, which could lead to upward stock price movements and reinforce their positions as market leaders.

  • 8d agoNEUTRAL
    Microsoft wants to make AI cheaper. Will investors actually see the savings?

    Microsoft is developing custom AI chips, a strategic move aimed at reducing the significant operational costs associated with AI development and deployment. While the company anticipates these chips will eventually lower expenses, the actual financial benefits for investors remain uncertain. The complexity of the AI ecosystem and the substantial upfront investment required for chip development mean that the cost savings may not be immediately apparent or directly translate into enhanced shareholder returns. Investors will be closely monitoring the long-term impact on margins and profitability.

  • 8d agoNEGATIVE
    ¿Por qué el frenesí de deuda por la IA inquieta a los mercados?

    Credit Default Swaps (CDS) for major tech firms including Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, and Amazon have seen a significant surge since 2025. This indicates increased perceived risk in the market regarding these companies' ability to service their debt. Wall Street is beginning to question whether the current boom in Artificial Intelligence development will adequately justify the substantial debt burdens these companies are accumulating. The rising CDS spreads suggest a growing concern among investors about the sustainability of AI-driven growth and its financial implications.

  • 9d agoPOSITIVE
    Perché il titolo Microsoft sale oggi nonostante il selloff dell'AI

    Microsoft shares climbed Thursday, with five Wall Street firms raising price targets, driven by robust demand for its Azure cloud platform and increasing enterprise adoption of AI. This positive momentum occurred despite a broader downturn in the AI sector. The stock saw a 1.12% increase to $539.67, recovering from a prior session's 1.8% loss. Analysts from TD Cowen, Mizuho, Citi, UBS, and Jefferies reiterated positive ratings and boosted their price objectives, signaling strong confidence in Microsoft's cloud and AI integration strategies. The company's stock had previously closed at a record high of $543.45 on Tuesday, underscoring its sustained market strength.

  • 11d agoPOSITIVE
    Le azioni Microsoft si avvicinano ai massimi storici: ecco perché

    Microsoft's stock is nearing an all-time closing high, trading at $548 after an 1.84% surge to $551.15 on Tuesday. The company's market capitalization has surpassed $4 trillion, driven by expansion in its AI infrastructure. This upward momentum positions MSFT for its first record close since October 28, 2025, when shares finished at $542.07. The stock's performance indicates strong investor confidence and potential for continued growth, fueled by its strategic AI investments.