Apollo Global Management Inc (APO)
OvervaluedFundamental
56
Price
$112.83
Market Cap
$65.96B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Apollo Global Management is a global alternative asset manager and retirement services provider. The company manages credit and equity investments across public and private markets through its Asset Management segment, which deploys capital on behalf of institutional investors including pension funds, endowments, and sovereign wealth funds. The Retirement Services segment, anchored by Athene, a leading financial services company specializing in issuing and acquiring retirement savings products, provides insurance-backed permanent capital for investments. Apollo's Principal Investing segment deploys proprietary capital alongside its managed funds. As of December 31, 2024, Apollo managed $751 billion in assets under management.
How it makes money
Apollo generates revenue from three primary sources: (1) Management fees earned on assets under management, typically ranging from 1.5% to 2% annually based on fund strategy and size; (2) Performance and incentive fees earned when funds outperform benchmarks or hurdle rates; (3) Spread-related earnings from Athene's insurance operations, generated by the spread between investment returns on insurance float and the cost of insurance liabilities. Additional revenue includes advisory and transaction fees from capital solutions services. The business model combines recurring management fee income with variable performance fees, and permanent capital deployment through Athene's insurance float, which reduces fundraising cyclicality compared to traditional asset managers.
Revenue by segment
Operated through Athene Holding, a leading provider of retirement savings and annuity products. This segment earns revenue from insurance underwriting, investment management of insurance assets, and from the spread between investment returns on insurance float and the cost of policyholder obligations. Athene manages significant insurance liabilities and provides Apollo's broader platform access to permanent capital for deploying into credit and other investments.
Manages investment funds and separately managed accounts across credit and equity strategies for institutional clients, including pension funds, endowments, and sovereign wealth funds. Revenue includes management fees, performance fees, advisory fees, and investment income. The segment benefits from fee-generating AUM of $569 billion as of year-end 2024 and includes origination services for direct lending and private credit strategies.
Represents Apollo's deployment of its own proprietary capital alongside managed funds to demonstrate commitment and generate direct returns. This segment includes direct equity and credit investments where Apollo invests alongside third-party capital in portfolio companies and credit facilities.
Competitive moat
Scale · NarrowApollo's primary moat is derived from its unmatched scale as the largest alternative credit manager globally with $751 billion in AUM, which enables origination and underwriting of complex, large-scale transactions that smaller competitors cannot replicate. The hard-to-replicate advantage centers on the permanent capital structure provided by Athene's insurance float ($355.7 billion in assets), which supplies a stable, long-duration funding source for investments and reduces fundraising cyclicality. This asset-liability matching creates competitive advantages in credit placement, underwriting standards, and cost of capital. However, the moat is somewhat narrow because scale advantages can be eroded by significant asset outflows, and because regulatory changes affecting insurance operations or changes in interest rates could undermine the permanent capital advantage.
What drives demand
CyclicalApollo's business exhibits cyclical characteristics driven primarily by credit market conditions, interest rate environments, and economic growth. Management fees and asset valuations depend on AUM levels, which fluctuate with market conditions and investor risk appetite. Performance fees and spread-related earnings are highly sensitive to credit cycle phases: during expansions, strong deal origination and credit performance drive fee income, while downturns reduce deployment volumes and increase credit losses. However, the business also has defensive elements: Athene's insurance operations generate stable spread income from long-duration liabilities, providing some insulation from market volatility. Secular tailwinds include the ongoing $7.5 trillion shift from traditional assets toward alternative investments, and demographic trends supporting demand for retirement income solutions.
Key risks
- Interest Rate and Market Risk — Apollo is subject to significant interest rate risk through fund valuations and fund management fees that depend on asset values. A one percentage point increase in interest rates could reduce estimated management fees by approximately $21 million annually. Additionally, rising rates compress spreads in credit investments and reduce the valuation of existing portfolio holdings, affecting both investment performance and fee-related earnings.
- Credit and Economic Cycle Risk — As a major participant in credit markets, Apollo's portfolio performance and fund returns are sensitive to credit cycles and economic downturns. A significant recession or credit deterioration would negatively impact loan performance, require higher provisions for credit losses, and reduce the ability to originate and deploy new capital, ultimately affecting management fees and overall earnings.
- Regulatory and Insurance Supervision Risk — Athene operates under stringent insurance regulatory oversight and faces potential changes in capital requirements, solvency regulations, and tax treatment. Regulatory changes requiring higher capital levels or limiting investment activities could reduce the ability to deploy permanent capital and erode the business model's competitive advantages. Additionally, changes in insurance accounting standards or regulatory environment could impact Athene's profitability.
- Reinsurance Counterparty Risk — Athene's risk management strategy relies on reinsurance agreements with counterparties. If a reinsurer fails to meet its assumed obligations or reduces its capacity, Apollo would be exposed to increased insurance liabilities and capital requirements, potentially straining liquidity and affecting earnings.
- Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Risk — Geopolitical tensions, international political developments, and trade friction could impede Apollo's ability to raise global capital and conduct cross-border transactions. Energy market dislocations and tariff environments could affect the credit quality of portfolio companies and reduce deployment opportunities, particularly for international capital flows.
The case for
Buyers argue that Apollo is positioned to capture significant share of the structural shift of approximately $7.5 trillion from traditional assets toward alternative investments, with even 2% of this flow providing substantial AUM growth. The company benefits from an unmatched scale advantage as the world's largest alternative credit manager, combined with a unique permanent capital model through Athene that reduces fundraising cyclicality and provides competitive cost-of-capital advantages. Record debt originations of $222 billion in 2024 and capital solutions revenue of $668 million demonstrate robust origination capabilities and operational execution. The integration with Athene creates a self-reinforcing competitive advantage: insurance-generated spreads fund investments in Apollo-originated credit, while management fees from Athene's investments provide recurring, stable revenue. Technological and AI capabilities for credit underwriting and origination are expected to drive continued market share gains. Furthermore, the company trades at valuations that may not fully reflect the quality and durability of its permanent capital base and the growth potential from retirement income demand in an aging population.
The case against
Sellers fear that Apollo's portfolio is cyclically exposed to credit market deterioration and economic slowdown risks that could significantly impair loan performance and reduce deal originations. An economic recession would reduce both the origination volume of new credit investments and management fee income as AUM declines. The company's substantial leverage and reliance on capital deployment to generate returns create vulnerability to funding constraints in a stressed market environment. Regulatory scrutiny of alternative credit and increasing capital requirements for Athene could reduce the competitive advantages of the insurance model and limit the permanent capital benefit. Rising interest rates have already compressed credit spreads, and further rate increases or a credit cycle downturn could create significant mark-to-market losses on existing positions. The shift toward passive investing and the competitive threat from other large asset managers entering the private credit space could limit fee growth and margin expansion. Additionally, dependence on key personnel and the execution risk of successfully managing significant growth and scale could lead to operational missteps. Geopolitical risks and trade tensions could disrupt global capital flows and reduce international fundraising capabilities.
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 21, 2026, shared with all users
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 18, 2026, shared with all users
The largest alternative asset manager, competing with Apollo for the same institutional and wealth-channel capital across private credit, private equity and real assets.
Runs the same twin model of buyout and credit funds paired with an owned insurance balance sheet (Global Atlantic), bidding against Apollo for the same deals and the same annuity savers.
Apollo's closest rival in private credit and direct lending, competing to originate and fund the same corporate loans for the same borrowers.
Competes head-on in direct lending and in raising perpetual private-credit vehicles sold to individual investors through wealth-management platforms.
A global buyout house chasing the same large corporate acquisitions and the same limited-partner commitments to private equity funds.
Competes for the same infrastructure, real estate and energy-transition mandates, and likewise funds them partly through an affiliated annuity and pension-risk business.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$35.90B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$1.88B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
-
Total Equity
$23.34B
Total Liabilities
$418.43B
Current Ratio
0.04
Interest Coverage
-
Debt/EBITDA
-
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$90.91
Current Price
$112.83
Margin of Safety
-24.1%
Fair Value Range
$59.09 - $122.73
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
41.03
ROE
15.0%
P/B Ratio
3.17
P/FCF
-
Gross Margin
-
ROIC
-
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
-
WACC
11.3%
ROIC − WACC
-
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (10)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR 65.96%
- Price CAGR 19.34%
- Low reliance on intangibles
- ROE 8.6%
- Revenue growth 5Y 52.1%
- Earnings surprise, average 6.8%
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 5.05
- Share dilution 0.9%
- Piotroski F-Score 6/9
Failed (7)
- P/B ratio 3.17
- Debt/equity ratio
- Return on tangible assets
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Unknown)
- PEG ratio 2.62
- Net margin trend 5.2% vs 13.3%
Unavailable (10)
- ROIC –
- Gross margin –
- P/FCF –
- Dividend payout –
- Operating margin –
- Positive free cash flow
- CapEx intensity
- Current ratio
- Interest coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Share count is stable
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Marc Jeffrey Rowan | Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman of the Board | 63 |
| Mr. James Richard Belardi | Co- Founder, Executive Chairman, Chief Investment Officer of Athene and Partner & Director | 68 |
| Mr. Martin Bernard Kelly | Partner & CFO | 57 |
| Ms. Whitney A Chatterjee | Partner & Chief Legal Officer | 50 |
| Mr. John T. Zito C.F.A. | Co-President of Apollo Asset Management | 43 |
| Mr. James Charles Zelter | President & Director | 63 |
| Mr. Gregory W. Sills | Partner, MD & COO | - |
| Mr. Jacob Frederick Walker | Partner and COO of Client & Product Solutions | - |
| Mr. Byron C. Vielehr | Partner & COO of Apollo Asset Management | 62 |
| Mr. Tristram Leach | Chief Investment Officer of EMEA & Co-Head of European Credit & Hybrid Equity | - |
Audit Risk
9
Board Risk
9
Compensation Risk
10
Shareholder Rights Risk
5
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-02-25
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-08-10
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-10-20
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much APO moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 42% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 25.0%
- Volatility 90d
- 33.2%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- 1.13Correlation 0.40
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -34.3%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 3.30%
Earnings reactions
How APO moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
Nov 3, 2026 · In 10 days · Before the open
EPS estimate: 2.20Revenue estimate: $1.4B
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 2.8% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 8, down 4 (out of 12).
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | During the session | 2.20 | 2.11 | -3.9% | -1.1% | +2.9% | +2.0% |
| May 6, 2026 | During the session | 1.95 | 1.94 | -0.5% | +2.9% | -0.6% | +1.3% |
| Feb 9, 2026 | During the session | 2.07 | 2.47 | +19.3% | +1.0% | +0.7% | -6.0% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | During the session | 1.93 | 2.17 | +12.4% | +6.7% | +5.3% | +5.6% |
| Aug 5, 2025 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +4.9% | +2.5% | +0.1% |
| May 2, 2025 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -2.7% | -1.8% | -3.4% |
| Feb 4, 2025 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -1.9% | -2.7% | -3.0% |
| Nov 5, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +5.4% | +7.1% | +19.6% |
| Aug 1, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -4.2% | -7.5% | -17.7% |
| May 2, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0.0% | +4.0% | +5.1% |
| Feb 27, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -0.2% | +0.9% | -1.3% |
| Nov 1, 2023 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +7.8% | +8.0% | +8.9% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on APO and what the price did next.
- 9/28/2026NegativeHow Muse and other AI agents could spark a bank run, according to an economist
- +1 day
- -1.5%
- +3 days
- -3.5%
- 9/23/2026NegativeApollo Global a rischio mentre proseguono i riscatti nel credito privato
- +1 day
- +0.9%
- +3 days
- -1.7%
- 9/16/2026PositiveApollo Gives $585 Million of Financing to The Executive Centre
- +1 day
- -1.5%
- +3 days
- -1.4%
- 9/9/2026NegativeApollo's Kleinman Says Legacy Portfolio Firms Have a Valuation Issue
- +1 day
- -0.2%
- +3 days
- -1.9%
- 9/9/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
- +1 day
- -0.2%
- +3 days
- -1.9%
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for APO.
- 17d agoNEUTRALApollo's Cortese Says Liquidity Is a Virtue, Not a Vice
John Cortese, Co-Head of Corporate Credit at Apollo, anticipates $100 trillion in debt financing over the next decade, with a significant 20% earmarked for AI digital infrastructure development. This projection highlights a substantial opportunity for credit markets and investment firms like Apollo. While the sheer volume of financing suggests robust economic activity and potential for growth in sectors like AI, the statement itself is a forward-looking observation on market trends rather than a specific performance indicator for Apollo. Investors will monitor Apollo's ability to capture this financing opportunity.
- 18d agoNEUTRALApollo Weighs Larger Role in Government Lending as Debt Soars
Apollo Global Management is reportedly exploring an expanded role in providing financing to governments and state-backed entities that are facing significant debt burdens. As budget deficits widen globally, these entities are increasingly seeking private capital solutions. This strategic pivot by Apollo could position the firm to capitalize on a growing market for sovereign and quasi-sovereign debt financing, potentially leading to new revenue streams and increased assets under management.
- 26d agoNEGATIVEHow Muse and other AI agents could spark a bank run, according to an economist
The chief economist at Apollo Global Management has warned that agentic Artificial Intelligence (AI) could potentially trigger a bank run. This concern stems from the idea that advanced AI agents could rapidly move large sums of money, overwhelming traditional banking systems and liquidity management. While the specific AI agent 'Muse' is mentioned, the broader implication is that sophisticated AI could destabilize financial markets by creating sudden, large-scale withdrawals. Investors should monitor developments in AI regulation and its potential impact on financial stability.
- 9/23/2026NEUTRALApollo’s Rowan Blasts Regulators for Handling of Walter Insurers
Marc Rowan, CEO of Apollo Global Management, has publicly criticized Delaware's insurance regulators regarding their oversight of Mark Walter's insurance entities. These companies are currently under federal investigation. While this news highlights potential regulatory scrutiny and governance concerns within the insurance sector, it does not directly impact Apollo's financial performance or operational outlook at this stage. Investors will monitor the developments of the federal probe and any potential repercussions for companies associated with Mark Walter.
- 9/23/2026NEGATIVEApollo Global a rischio mentre proseguono i riscatti nel credito privato
Apollo Global Management LLC (APO) shares have underperformed the market, declining 13.60% from their August high to $124.15. The company has imposed limits on redemptions in its private credit funds during the third quarter. Investors in Apollo Debt Solutions BDC sought to redeem approximately 14.7% of shares in the latest offering, a slight improvement from the 16.8% in the prior quarter. This ongoing redemption pressure and the company's stock performance suggest potential headwinds and investor concerns regarding liquidity and asset management in its private credit operations.
- 9/17/2026NEUTRALApollo Mulls Raising SoftBank Loan to $9 Billion for OpenAI Bets
Apollo Global Management is reportedly in discussions to increase a loan facility for SoftBank Group to $9 billion, up from an initial $5.4 billion. This larger loan is intended to bolster SoftBank's investments in AI leader OpenAI. While this indicates potential for significant capital deployment in the AI sector, the news primarily concerns financing arrangements between two large investment firms rather than direct operational news for Apollo or SoftBank themselves. Investors will monitor the finalization of the loan and the performance of OpenAI.
- 9/16/2026POSITIVEApollo Gives $585 Million of Financing to The Executive Centre
Apollo Global Management has committed $585 million in financing to The Executive Centre, a flexible workspace provider. This significant hybrid debt and equity deal marks Apollo's largest such transaction in Asia. The financing is expected to bolster The Executive Centre's operations and expansion plans, potentially enhancing its market position. For Apollo, this represents a strategic deployment of capital in a key growth region, signaling confidence in the Asian flexible workspace sector and offering a substantial return opportunity.
- 9/9/2026NEGATIVEApollo's Kleinman Says Legacy Portfolio Firms Have a Valuation Issue
Scott Kleinman, co-President of Apollo Asset Management, highlighted a significant valuation challenge within Apollo's legacy portfolio companies. He cited the rising cost of capital as a key factor exacerbating these issues, which could negatively impact future returns for investors. This commentary, made at the IPEM conference in Paris, suggests potential headwinds for a portion of Apollo's managed assets, raising concerns about the performance of older investments in the current economic climate.
- 9/9/2026NEUTRALApollo’s Kleinman Sees Golden Age of Capital as Corporates Spend
Scott Kleinman, a top executive at Apollo Global Management Inc., has declared that the private capital industry is experiencing a "golden age of capital deployment." This optimistic outlook persists despite the conclusion of an era characterized by cheap funding. Kleinman's statement suggests robust activity and significant investment opportunities within the private capital markets, indicating a strong environment for capital allocation and growth, even as financing costs are expected to rise. Investors may find this environment conducive to seeking alternative investment strategies.