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BGC Group, Inc. (BGC)

Overvalued
Financial ServicesCapital MarketsUnited States

Fundamental

65

Price

$11.79

Market Cap

$5.51B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

BGC Group is an inter-dealer broker and financial technology company providing execution, trading, analytics, and post-trade services across multiple asset classes including fixed income, equities, derivatives, foreign exchange, and energy/commodities markets. The company operates through voice-mediated brokers and proprietary electronic platforms, serving institutional clients globally including hedge funds, asset managers, banks, and energy producers. Following its July 2023 conversion to a C-Corporation, BGC operates through two primary business segments: Brokerage Operations and Fenics Platform Business.

How it makes money

BGC's revenue is generated primarily through commissions on brokerage transactions across its various product categories, which comprise the majority of revenues. Secondary revenue streams include fees from data, software, and post-trade services; fees from related party transactions with Cantor Fitzgerald; and other product and service revenues. Commission revenues are highly correlated with trading volumes and market volatility, while data and post-trade services represent higher-margin, more recurring revenue sources.

Revenue by segment

Rates30.3%

Brokerage services for fixed income and interest rate derivatives traded in over-the-counter markets, serving institutional clients such as banks, asset managers, and hedge funds.

Energy, Commodities & Shipping21.3%

Brokerage services for energy markets (crude oil, natural gas, products), commodities (metals, agricultural), and shipping/freight derivatives, connecting producers, traders, and end-users.

Foreign Exchange15.8%

Brokerage services for spot and derivatives foreign exchange trading, facilitating currency transactions for banks, corporates, and investment firms seeking to hedge or trade FX exposure.

Credit12.7%

Brokerage services for credit derivatives and cash credit instruments, enabling institutional investors to manage credit risk and duration exposure across corporate and sovereign bonds.

Equities9.9%

Brokerage services for equities and equity derivatives, providing execution and trade services for institutional clients trading stocks and equity index products.

Data, Network & Post-Trade Services5.6%

Software, market data, and connectivity solutions including the Fenics suite of electronic execution platforms and post-trade clearing and settlement services, generating higher-margin recurring revenue.

Competitive moat

Patents and licences · Narrow

BGC's moat derives from proprietary technology platforms (Fenics, FMX), established client relationships, regulatory licenses, and scale advantages in connecting institutional traders. However, the moat is narrow because electronic markets are commoditized with tight spreads, and larger competitors (TP ICAP, CME Group) possess greater scale and financial resources. BGC's competitive advantage rests on technology innovation and niche leadership in specific products rather than durable structural advantages.

What drives demand

Cyclical

BGC's demand is highly cyclical and driven by trading volumes in financial markets, which fluctuate with market volatility, economic conditions, and interest rates. During periods of market stress or high volatility, trading volumes typically increase, boosting revenues. Conversely, calm markets with low volatility reduce trading activity and commission revenues. Secular tailwinds include the shift from voice to electronic trading, which has higher margins and greater scalability.

Key risks

  • Market Volatility and Trading Volume Cyclicality — BGC's revenues and profitability historically decline significantly during periods of low trading volume in financial markets. The company is highly sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, interest rates, and market uncertainty, which affect client trading activity. Economic downturns, lower market volatility, or reduced financial activity can substantially reduce commission revenues.
  • Intense Competition — BGC faces significant competition from larger, better-capitalized firms such as TP ICAP and CME Group, as well as from new electronic platforms and fintech competitors. In commoditized electronic markets, BGC faces pricing constraints and tight spreads that limit profitability. Competitive pressures could constrain growth, reduce market share, and compress margins.
  • Related Party and Customer Concentration — BGC has material operational and financial dependence on Cantor Fitzgerald, which serves as its primary counterparty for clearing services, credit facilities, and capital allocation decisions. Cantor also benefits from preferential commission rates and unlimited market data access. Top 10 customers represent 27.1% of revenues. This concentration creates significant risk if the related party relationship deteriorates or if the company loses major customers.
  • Technology and Cybersecurity Risks — BGC's operations depend on complex computer systems, software, and databases developed in-house and acquired from third parties. Defects or disruptions in these systems could result in unanticipated downtime, financial losses, and reputational damage. Malicious cyber-attacks or adverse events affecting BGC's or third parties' operational systems could disrupt business, disclose confidential information, damage reputation, and result in regulatory penalties.
  • Debt Burden and Financial Risk — BGC has approximately $1.3 billion in debt obligations through senior notes and other instruments. This significant leverage increases financial risk, limits financial flexibility, and creates exposure to interest rate fluctuations. Higher interest rates increase borrowing costs, and economic downturns could impair the company's ability to service debt.
  • Regulatory and Compliance Complexity — BGC operates as a regulated financial services firm across multiple jurisdictions with complex regulatory requirements. Changes in financial regulations, increased compliance obligations, or regulatory enforcement actions could increase operating costs, restrict business activities, or result in financial penalties.
  • Personnel Retention and Talent Acquisition — BGC's success depends on attracting and retaining highly skilled personnel, including traders, technologists, and operations staff. Competition for talent in financial services is intense, and loss of key personnel could impair business performance and hinder execution of strategic initiatives.

Customer concentration

Top customers account for 27.1% of revenue

BGC's top 10 customers account for approximately 27.1% of total revenues. Cantor Fitzgerald, the company's controlling shareholder and primary related party, paid BGC $1.648 billion in commissions during 2024. Cantor benefits from preferential commission rates as the lowest-cost customer under a long-standing arrangement and enjoys unlimited access to BGC's market data at no cost. This concentration of revenues from a single related party creates material business risk.

The case for

Buyers argue that BGC is successfully transitioning from a traditional voice-brokerage model to a higher-margin electronic platform business through Fenics and FMX. Fenics revenues have grown at double-digit rates for four consecutive quarters with sustained market share gains. FMX (BGC's futures exchange) achieved record market share of 42% in US Treasuries and achieved 16x growth in futures contracts. The shift from voice to electronic trading offers significant operating leverage and margin expansion. Management expects pretax adjusted earnings growth of approximately 17% with record revenues of $1.8 billion in the first half of 2026. New strategic initiatives including a Fanatics prediction market partnership and compute brokerage services represent additional growth vectors. The company's improved capital structure following the 2023 corporate conversion simplifies ownership and facilitates institutional investor participation.

The case against

Sellers fear that BGC's valuation is expensive relative to fundamentals and future cash flows. The stock trades at a P/E of 36.3x, well above peer averages (18.8x) and DCF-based fair value estimates. The company carries substantial debt of $1.3 billion, and aggressive leverage limits financial flexibility during market downturns. BGC remains highly exposed to trading volume cyclicality—revenues decline sharply during periods of low market volatility, which are common in mature financial markets. The company faces intense competition from larger, better-capitalized competitors such as TP ICAP and CME Group, and new electronic platforms continue to erode traditional brokerage margins. Material dependence on Cantor Fitzgerald for clearing, credit facilities, and revenue creates concentration risk; a deterioration in this relationship could be devastating. Execution risks on growth initiatives (Fenics margin expansion, FMX futures growth, Fanatics partnership) are substantial, and there is uncertainty whether current profitability improvements can be sustained. The shift to electronic trading, while higher-margin, could cannibalize existing voice revenues if not managed carefully.

Generated with artificial intelligence on September 21, 2026, shared with all users

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated with artificial intelligence on September 18, 2026, shared with all users

P/E: 14.3Score: 66Market cap: $5.15B

Competes for the same energy, commodities and financial-market execution business, hiring from the same pool of brokers and serving the same trading desks BGC's energy and commodities division covers.

P/E: 29.3Score: 77Market cap: $0

Electronic trading venue for rates and credit that takes the same institutional order flow BGC's Fenics platforms aim to intermediate, shifting voice-brokered volume onto screens.

P/E: 25.9Score: 72Market cap: $19.58B

Named in BGC's 10-K as the exchange competitor for interest-rate and FX futures and options, and the direct rival of BGC's own FMX futures exchange for US Treasury and SOFR volume.

TP ICAP Group plcTCAP

The largest diversified inter-dealer broker and the first competitor BGC names in its 10-K, matching it desk for desk in rates, credit, FX, energy and commodities brokerage for the same bank and institutional dealers.

Compagnie Financière Tradition SACFT

The other publicly listed global inter-dealer broker named by BGC itself, brokering the same over-the-counter interest-rate, currency, credit and commodity products for the same dealer clients.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$2.75B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Net Income

$199M

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Free Cash Flow

$373M

Total Equity

$972M

Total Liabilities

$3.27B

Current Ratio

1.29

Interest Coverage

-

Debt/EBITDA

-

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

BankOvervalued

Fair Value

$7.11

Current Price

$11.79

Margin of Safety

-65.8%

Fair Value Range

$4.62 - $9.60

Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.

Estimation Methods

Analyst price target:$16.00
Discounted cash flow (DCF):Not applicable to this type of company
Earnings multiple (P/E):$3.24
Graham growth formula:Not applicable to this type of company
Earnings power value (EPV):Not applicable to this type of company
Justified P/B:$5.23
Dividend discount (Gordon):$1.42
P/FFO, funds from operations:Not applicable to this type of company
Mid-cycle earnings:Not applicable to this type of company
Revenue multiple:Not applicable to this type of company
Last Earnings Surprise:+3.43%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

28.76

ROE

15.9%

P/B Ratio

3.80

P/FCF

8.68

Gross Margin

-

ROIC

-

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

-

WACC

7.3%

ROIC − WACC

-

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (15)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • Price CAGR 6.28%
  • P/FCF 8.68
  • Debt/equity ratio
  • Positive free cash flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Return on tangible assets
  • ROE 19.2%
  • Revenue growth 5Y 7.4%
  • Earnings surprise, average 2.8%
  • PEG ratio 0.88
  • Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 2.53
  • Share dilution 1.4%
  • Net margin trend 7.2% vs 7.1%
  • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

Failed (5)

  • EPS CAGR 1.61%
  • P/B ratio 3.80
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Unknown)

Unavailable (7)

  • ROIC –
  • Gross margin –
  • Dividend payout –
  • Operating margin –
  • Current ratio
  • Interest coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA

Piotroski F-Score

5/9

Mixed signals: some areas need attention

ROA > 0
Operating cash flow > 0
ΔROA > 0
Cash flow > net income
Leverage ↓
Current ratio ↑
No dilution
Gross margin ↑
Asset turnover ↑

Earnings Quality

2.53

High quality: earnings backed by cash

Share Dilution

1.4%

Share count is stable

Institutional Holdings

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Mr. Stephen Marcus MerkelExecutive VP, General Counsel & Chairman of the Board66
Mr. Sean A. WindeattCOO & Co-CEO52
Mr. Jean-Pierre AubinCo-Chief Executive Officer57
Mr. John Joseph AbularrageCo-Chief Executive Officer47
Mr. Jason Williams HaufExecutive VP & CFO56
Mr. Jason ChryssicasHead of Investor Relations39
Ms. Margaret BeldenSenior Managing Director & Chief Human Resources Officer-
Mr. Louis James ScottoChief Executive Officer of FMX74
Mr. John BattagliaSenior VP & Head of Carbon Markets-
Mr. Arran RowsellHead of Credit Strategy in London-

Audit Risk

2

Board Risk

10

Compensation Risk

10

Shareholder Rights Risk

10

Documents

  • Annual Report (10-K)

    A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.

    Filed on 2026-03-02

    View document
  • Quarterly Report (10-Q)

    A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.

    Filed on 2026-08-10

    View document
  • Current Report (8-K)

    An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.

    Filed on 2026-09-28

    View document

via SEC EDGAR

Income History

via SEC EDGAR

Part 2 · The price and its context

This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Market Reaction Profile

How much BGC moves, measured on its daily prices.

VolatilityMedium

More volatile than 53% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).

Volatility 30d
29.3%
Volatility 90d
37.5%
Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
0.33Correlation 0.12
Max drawdown (12m)
-19.7%
ATR (14d, % of price)
3.15%

Earnings reactions

How BGC moved around its past quarterly results.

Next earnings release

Nov 5, 2026 · In 12 days · Before the open

EPS estimate: 0.34Revenue estimate: $825M

What usually happens

  • Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 2.8% the next day, up or down.
  • Next-day moves: up 2, down 10 (out of 12).

Release history

DateWhen EPS est.EPS actualSurprise Gap 1 day5 days
Jul 30, 2026During the session0.340.35+3.4% +2.5% -0.8% -6.9%
May 7, 2026During the session0.410.41-0.8% -2.7% +3.7% +2.5%
Feb 12, 2026During the session0.290.31+5.8% +5.7% +9.1% +11.5%
Nov 6, 2025During the session0.280.29+2.5% -1.0% -0.1% +0.5%
Jul 31, 2025During the sessionn/an/an/a-2.1% -4.6% +1.9%
May 7, 2025During the sessionn/an/an/a+3.7% -1.9% -1.6%
Feb 14, 2025During the sessionn/an/an/a-3.0% -1.6% -2.7%
Oct 31, 2024During the sessionn/an/an/a+1.4% -1.9% +17.7%
Jul 30, 2024During the sessionn/an/an/a-1.4% -3.9% -9.6%
Apr 30, 2024During the sessionn/an/an/a-2.3% -4.3% +7.0%
Feb 14, 2024During the sessionn/an/an/a-1.4% -2.9% -2.7%
Oct 30, 2023During the sessionn/an/an/a+1.0% -2.8% +5.9%

Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.

Updated 10/24/2026

Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.

Price reaction to the news

Latest news on BGC and what the price did next.

No positive or negative news on BGC has been archived yet.

Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.

Latest News

Recent headlines for BGC.

No recent news for BGC.