BGC Group, Inc. (BGC)
OvervaluedFundamental
65
Price
$11.79
Market Cap
$5.51B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
BGC Group is an inter-dealer broker and financial technology company providing execution, trading, analytics, and post-trade services across multiple asset classes including fixed income, equities, derivatives, foreign exchange, and energy/commodities markets. The company operates through voice-mediated brokers and proprietary electronic platforms, serving institutional clients globally including hedge funds, asset managers, banks, and energy producers. Following its July 2023 conversion to a C-Corporation, BGC operates through two primary business segments: Brokerage Operations and Fenics Platform Business.
How it makes money
BGC's revenue is generated primarily through commissions on brokerage transactions across its various product categories, which comprise the majority of revenues. Secondary revenue streams include fees from data, software, and post-trade services; fees from related party transactions with Cantor Fitzgerald; and other product and service revenues. Commission revenues are highly correlated with trading volumes and market volatility, while data and post-trade services represent higher-margin, more recurring revenue sources.
Revenue by segment
Brokerage services for fixed income and interest rate derivatives traded in over-the-counter markets, serving institutional clients such as banks, asset managers, and hedge funds.
Brokerage services for energy markets (crude oil, natural gas, products), commodities (metals, agricultural), and shipping/freight derivatives, connecting producers, traders, and end-users.
Brokerage services for spot and derivatives foreign exchange trading, facilitating currency transactions for banks, corporates, and investment firms seeking to hedge or trade FX exposure.
Brokerage services for credit derivatives and cash credit instruments, enabling institutional investors to manage credit risk and duration exposure across corporate and sovereign bonds.
Brokerage services for equities and equity derivatives, providing execution and trade services for institutional clients trading stocks and equity index products.
Software, market data, and connectivity solutions including the Fenics suite of electronic execution platforms and post-trade clearing and settlement services, generating higher-margin recurring revenue.
Competitive moat
Patents and licences · NarrowBGC's moat derives from proprietary technology platforms (Fenics, FMX), established client relationships, regulatory licenses, and scale advantages in connecting institutional traders. However, the moat is narrow because electronic markets are commoditized with tight spreads, and larger competitors (TP ICAP, CME Group) possess greater scale and financial resources. BGC's competitive advantage rests on technology innovation and niche leadership in specific products rather than durable structural advantages.
What drives demand
CyclicalBGC's demand is highly cyclical and driven by trading volumes in financial markets, which fluctuate with market volatility, economic conditions, and interest rates. During periods of market stress or high volatility, trading volumes typically increase, boosting revenues. Conversely, calm markets with low volatility reduce trading activity and commission revenues. Secular tailwinds include the shift from voice to electronic trading, which has higher margins and greater scalability.
Key risks
- Market Volatility and Trading Volume Cyclicality — BGC's revenues and profitability historically decline significantly during periods of low trading volume in financial markets. The company is highly sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, interest rates, and market uncertainty, which affect client trading activity. Economic downturns, lower market volatility, or reduced financial activity can substantially reduce commission revenues.
- Intense Competition — BGC faces significant competition from larger, better-capitalized firms such as TP ICAP and CME Group, as well as from new electronic platforms and fintech competitors. In commoditized electronic markets, BGC faces pricing constraints and tight spreads that limit profitability. Competitive pressures could constrain growth, reduce market share, and compress margins.
- Related Party and Customer Concentration — BGC has material operational and financial dependence on Cantor Fitzgerald, which serves as its primary counterparty for clearing services, credit facilities, and capital allocation decisions. Cantor also benefits from preferential commission rates and unlimited market data access. Top 10 customers represent 27.1% of revenues. This concentration creates significant risk if the related party relationship deteriorates or if the company loses major customers.
- Technology and Cybersecurity Risks — BGC's operations depend on complex computer systems, software, and databases developed in-house and acquired from third parties. Defects or disruptions in these systems could result in unanticipated downtime, financial losses, and reputational damage. Malicious cyber-attacks or adverse events affecting BGC's or third parties' operational systems could disrupt business, disclose confidential information, damage reputation, and result in regulatory penalties.
- Debt Burden and Financial Risk — BGC has approximately $1.3 billion in debt obligations through senior notes and other instruments. This significant leverage increases financial risk, limits financial flexibility, and creates exposure to interest rate fluctuations. Higher interest rates increase borrowing costs, and economic downturns could impair the company's ability to service debt.
- Regulatory and Compliance Complexity — BGC operates as a regulated financial services firm across multiple jurisdictions with complex regulatory requirements. Changes in financial regulations, increased compliance obligations, or regulatory enforcement actions could increase operating costs, restrict business activities, or result in financial penalties.
- Personnel Retention and Talent Acquisition — BGC's success depends on attracting and retaining highly skilled personnel, including traders, technologists, and operations staff. Competition for talent in financial services is intense, and loss of key personnel could impair business performance and hinder execution of strategic initiatives.
Customer concentration
Top customers account for 27.1% of revenue
BGC's top 10 customers account for approximately 27.1% of total revenues. Cantor Fitzgerald, the company's controlling shareholder and primary related party, paid BGC $1.648 billion in commissions during 2024. Cantor benefits from preferential commission rates as the lowest-cost customer under a long-standing arrangement and enjoys unlimited access to BGC's market data at no cost. This concentration of revenues from a single related party creates material business risk.
The case for
Buyers argue that BGC is successfully transitioning from a traditional voice-brokerage model to a higher-margin electronic platform business through Fenics and FMX. Fenics revenues have grown at double-digit rates for four consecutive quarters with sustained market share gains. FMX (BGC's futures exchange) achieved record market share of 42% in US Treasuries and achieved 16x growth in futures contracts. The shift from voice to electronic trading offers significant operating leverage and margin expansion. Management expects pretax adjusted earnings growth of approximately 17% with record revenues of $1.8 billion in the first half of 2026. New strategic initiatives including a Fanatics prediction market partnership and compute brokerage services represent additional growth vectors. The company's improved capital structure following the 2023 corporate conversion simplifies ownership and facilitates institutional investor participation.
The case against
Sellers fear that BGC's valuation is expensive relative to fundamentals and future cash flows. The stock trades at a P/E of 36.3x, well above peer averages (18.8x) and DCF-based fair value estimates. The company carries substantial debt of $1.3 billion, and aggressive leverage limits financial flexibility during market downturns. BGC remains highly exposed to trading volume cyclicality—revenues decline sharply during periods of low market volatility, which are common in mature financial markets. The company faces intense competition from larger, better-capitalized competitors such as TP ICAP and CME Group, and new electronic platforms continue to erode traditional brokerage margins. Material dependence on Cantor Fitzgerald for clearing, credit facilities, and revenue creates concentration risk; a deterioration in this relationship could be devastating. Execution risks on growth initiatives (Fenics margin expansion, FMX futures growth, Fanatics partnership) are substantial, and there is uncertainty whether current profitability improvements can be sustained. The shift to electronic trading, while higher-margin, could cannibalize existing voice revenues if not managed carefully.
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 21, 2026, shared with all users
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 18, 2026, shared with all users
Competes for the same energy, commodities and financial-market execution business, hiring from the same pool of brokers and serving the same trading desks BGC's energy and commodities division covers.
Electronic trading venue for rates and credit that takes the same institutional order flow BGC's Fenics platforms aim to intermediate, shifting voice-brokered volume onto screens.
Named in BGC's 10-K as the exchange competitor for interest-rate and FX futures and options, and the direct rival of BGC's own FMX futures exchange for US Treasury and SOFR volume.
The largest diversified inter-dealer broker and the first competitor BGC names in its 10-K, matching it desk for desk in rates, credit, FX, energy and commodities brokerage for the same bank and institutional dealers.
The other publicly listed global inter-dealer broker named by BGC itself, brokering the same over-the-counter interest-rate, currency, credit and commodity products for the same dealer clients.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$2.75B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$199M
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$373M
Total Equity
$972M
Total Liabilities
$3.27B
Current Ratio
1.29
Interest Coverage
-
Debt/EBITDA
-
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$7.11
Current Price
$11.79
Margin of Safety
-65.8%
Fair Value Range
$4.62 - $9.60
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
28.76
ROE
15.9%
P/B Ratio
3.80
P/FCF
8.68
Gross Margin
-
ROIC
-
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
-
WACC
7.3%
ROIC − WACC
-
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (15)
- EPS shows upward trend
- Price CAGR 6.28%
- P/FCF 8.68
- Debt/equity ratio
- Positive free cash flow
- CapEx intensity
- Return on tangible assets
- ROE 19.2%
- Revenue growth 5Y 7.4%
- Earnings surprise, average 2.8%
- PEG ratio 0.88
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 2.53
- Share dilution 1.4%
- Net margin trend 7.2% vs 7.1%
- Piotroski F-Score 5/9
Failed (5)
- EPS CAGR 1.61%
- P/B ratio 3.80
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Unknown)
Unavailable (7)
- ROIC –
- Gross margin –
- Dividend payout –
- Operating margin –
- Current ratio
- Interest coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Share count is stable
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Stephen Marcus Merkel | Executive VP, General Counsel & Chairman of the Board | 66 |
| Mr. Sean A. Windeatt | COO & Co-CEO | 52 |
| Mr. Jean-Pierre Aubin | Co-Chief Executive Officer | 57 |
| Mr. John Joseph Abularrage | Co-Chief Executive Officer | 47 |
| Mr. Jason Williams Hauf | Executive VP & CFO | 56 |
| Mr. Jason Chryssicas | Head of Investor Relations | 39 |
| Ms. Margaret Belden | Senior Managing Director & Chief Human Resources Officer | - |
| Mr. Louis James Scotto | Chief Executive Officer of FMX | 74 |
| Mr. John Battaglia | Senior VP & Head of Carbon Markets | - |
| Mr. Arran Rowsell | Head of Credit Strategy in London | - |
Audit Risk
2
Board Risk
10
Compensation Risk
10
Shareholder Rights Risk
10
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-03-02
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-08-10
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-09-28
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much BGC moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 53% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 29.3%
- Volatility 90d
- 37.5%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- 0.33Correlation 0.12
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -19.7%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 3.15%
Earnings reactions
How BGC moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
Nov 5, 2026 · In 12 days · Before the open
EPS estimate: 0.34Revenue estimate: $825M
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 2.8% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 2, down 10 (out of 12).
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | During the session | 0.34 | 0.35 | +3.4% | +2.5% | -0.8% | -6.9% |
| May 7, 2026 | During the session | 0.41 | 0.41 | -0.8% | -2.7% | +3.7% | +2.5% |
| Feb 12, 2026 | During the session | 0.29 | 0.31 | +5.8% | +5.7% | +9.1% | +11.5% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | During the session | 0.28 | 0.29 | +2.5% | -1.0% | -0.1% | +0.5% |
| Jul 31, 2025 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -2.1% | -4.6% | +1.9% |
| May 7, 2025 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +3.7% | -1.9% | -1.6% |
| Feb 14, 2025 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -3.0% | -1.6% | -2.7% |
| Oct 31, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +1.4% | -1.9% | +17.7% |
| Jul 30, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -1.4% | -3.9% | -9.6% |
| Apr 30, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -2.3% | -4.3% | +7.0% |
| Feb 14, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -1.4% | -2.9% | -2.7% |
| Oct 30, 2023 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +1.0% | -2.8% | +5.9% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on BGC and what the price did next.
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for BGC.