Cigna Group (CI)
Fair ValueFundamental
74
Price
$306.95
Market Cap
$80.43B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Cigna is a global diversified health company serving over 185 million customer relationships across 30+ markets. It operates through two main segments: Evernorth Health Services, which combines pharmacy benefit management and specialty care services; and Cigna Healthcare, which delivers medical insurance plans and coordinated health solutions to employers, individuals, and government-sponsored programs in the U.S. and internationally.
How it makes money
Revenue is derived from health insurance premiums, pharmacy benefit administration fees, formulary management and clinical consulting services, specialty pharmacy services, and care management programs. The company monetizes its diversified platform through integration of medical, behavioral, and pharmacy benefits for employers and health plans.
Revenue by segment
Comprises Pharmacy Benefit Services and Specialty and Care Services. Provides pharmacy benefit administration, drug utilization review, formulary management, clinical consulting, and specialty pharmacy services to enable efficient healthcare delivery.
Delivers comprehensive medical and coordinated health solutions including insurance plans for employers, individuals, and government-sponsored programs (Medicare, Medicaid) in the U.S. and international markets.
Competitive moat
Scale · NarrowCigna benefits from scale across 185+ million customer relationships and a 1.7 million-provider network, creating operational efficiencies. Integration of medical, behavioral, and pharmacy benefits within Evernorth generates quantifiable value: $193 savings per covered individual, 9-10% reduction in high-cost medical claims for integrated customers, and 22% higher participation in care management programs. However, these advantages are eroded by intense competitive pressure from three other major health conglomerates, regulatory constraints on pharmacy benefit pricing and rebates, and high customer concentration risk (one pharmacy client = 19% of revenue).
What drives demand
Moderately cyclicalDemand for Cigna's services is driven by essential healthcare needs (defensive) but also sensitive to economic cycles. Employer-sponsored insurance is tied to employment levels and business profitability. Government-sponsored programs (Medicare, Medicaid) provide some stability. Structural demand drivers include aging population, rising chronic disease prevalence, increasing prescription drug costs, and shift toward integrated care models. Specialty pharmacy market represents ~$500 billion total addressable market with mid-single-digit secular growth, providing a tailwind independent of economic cycles.
Key risks
- Healthcare Cost Inflation and Medical Loss Ratio Management — Actual medical claims can exceed Cigna's estimates, causing material adverse effects on operating results. Medical cost trends, prescription drug utilization, and customer mix changes require constant recalibration. Cigna's medical care ratio rose to 84.8% in Q3 2025 from 82.8% in Q3 2024, indicating rising claim costs. If medical inflation accelerates beyond pricing flexibility, margins will compress.
- Customer Concentration and Revenue Dependence — One pharmacy benefit client generated 19% of 2025 external revenue, while U.S. federal agencies contributed 11% of revenue. This concentration creates material risk: loss or material renegotiation of contracts with major clients would significantly impact revenue and profitability. Pharmacy customer count also declined from 123.6 million (year-end 2025) to 121.0 million (March 2026).
- Regulatory and Legislative Risk — Cigna faces substantial regulatory oversight of government-sponsored programs (Medicare, Medicaid), prescription drug pricing, privacy laws, and pharmacy manufacturer rebate policies. Regulatory changes—including potential transparency requirements, rebate restrictions, or changes to ACA rules—could compress margins or force operational restructuring. Regulatory scrutiny of pharmacy benefit managers' pricing power is increasing.
- Intense Competitive Pressures — Cigna competes against three other major health conglomerates and numerous smaller competitors. Price competition and pressure to contain premium rates or administrative fees could compress margins. Employer and individual customers demand innovative solutions and lower costs, limiting Cigna's pricing power.
- Economic Cyclicality and Employment Sensitivity — Higher unemployment or economic downturn reduces enrollment in employer-sponsored plans and increases opt-outs. Employers facing cost pressures may reduce healthcare coverage or shift to employee-funded models. Economic sensitivity creates volatility in customer acquisition and retention, particularly in Cigna Healthcare segment.
Customer concentration
Top customers account for 19% of revenue
One pharmacy benefit client accounted for 19% of 2025 external revenue, with U.S. federal agencies contributing approximately 11% of revenue. Combined, the largest customers represent roughly 30% of total revenue, indicating material concentration risk. Cigna serves over 185 million customer relationships across employer groups, individuals, government programs, and pharmacy networks, but revenue is concentrated among a small number of large contracts, particularly in Evernorth.
The case for
Buyers argue that Evernorth is a structural growth engine with a specialty pharmacy addressable market of ~$500 billion and mid-single-digit secular growth independent of economic cycles. Integration of medical and pharmacy benefits creates durable cost advantages difficult to replicate through contracts alone—delivering $193 savings per covered individual and reducing high-cost medical claims by 9-10%. The diversified customer base (185+ million relationships) across employer, individual, government, and pharmacy channels reduces dependence on any single revenue stream. Full-year 2025 revenues grew 11% to $274.7 billion with net income of $6 billion ($22.18 per share), and management raised full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to at least $30.45. Share repurchases of 11.9 million shares for $3.6 billion in 2025 signal management confidence. The company's scale and integrated platform position it to benefit from rising healthcare complexity and the secular shift toward specialty therapies.
The case against
Sellers fear that escalating benefit and pharmacy costs—rising 12% in 2025 and 4% in Q1 2026—will compress margins faster than pricing adjustments can offset, eroding the bull thesis. Medical cost ratio rising to 84.8% signals tightening healthcare cost dynamics. Customer headwinds are evident: pharmacy customers fell from 123.6 million (year-end 2025) to 121.0 million (March 2026), and total customer relationships declined from 188.4 million to 185.5 million, suggesting growth dependent on unsustainable price increases. Heavy customer concentration (19% from one pharmacy client, 11% from federal agencies) creates contract renegotiation risk and limited bargaining power. Regulatory pressures on pharmacy benefit manager rebates, transparency requirements, and potential pricing restrictions threaten Evernorth's margin profile. High leverage—$29.4 billion debt against $7 billion cash at Q1 2026—leaves limited flexibility for downturns. The valuation hinges entirely on Evernorth's pricing power and market position remaining intact; shifts in political climate, CMS policy, or competitive dynamics could quickly destroy value.
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 21, 2026, shared with all users
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 18, 2026, shared with all users
It is the closest mirror image of Cigna, selling employer-sponsored health plans to the same large US corporate clients while its Optum Rx pharmacy benefit manager bids against Evernorth's Express Scripts for the same drug-benefit contracts.
Through Aetna it competes for the same commercial and employer health members, and through CVS Caremark it is one of the three pharmacy benefit managers that split the US market with Express Scripts.
As the largest Blue Cross Blue Shield operator it bids for the same employer and individual health plans in overlapping US states, and its CarelonRx unit competes directly with Evernorth on pharmacy benefits.
It is the biggest insurer on the US individual insurance marketplaces, where it competes with Cigna Healthcare for the same subsidised individual customers state by state.
This mutual Blue Cross insurer covering Illinois, Texas and three other states is the fifth-largest US commercial carrier and now also owns the Medicare business Cigna sold it in March 2025, putting the two head to head on national employer accounts.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$282.38B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$6.42B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
-
Total Equity
$41.71B
Total Liabilities
$116.05B
Current Ratio
0.85
Interest Coverage
7.03
Debt/EBITDA
2.75
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$324.72
Current Price
$306.95
Margin of Safety
+5.5%
Fair Value Range
$211.07 - $438.38
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
12.70
ROE
14.3%
P/B Ratio
1.90
P/FCF
-
Gross Margin
20.6%
ROIC
7.8%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
7.8%
WACC
6.7%
ROIC − WACC
+1.1 pp
ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (16)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR 13.33%
- Price CAGR 8.06%
- ROIC 7.7%
- P/B ratio 1.90
- Debt/equity ratio
- Current ratio
- Interest coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on tangible assets
- ROE 15.2%
- Revenue growth 5Y 11.4%
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 1.60
- Share dilution -5.2%
- Net margin trend 2.3% vs 1.9%
- Piotroski F-Score 8/9
Failed (6)
- Gross margin 20.6%
- Operating margin 3.5%
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Fairly Valued)
- Earnings surprise, average -0.6%
Unavailable (5)
- P/FCF –
- Dividend payout –
- Positive free cash flow
- CapEx intensity
- PEG ratio (needs P/E > 0 and growth > 0)
Piotroski F-Score
Strong financial health
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. David Michael Cordani | Executive Chairman of the Board | 60 |
| Mr. Brian Case Evanko C.F.A. | President, CEO & Director | 48 |
| Ms. Ann M. Dennison | Executive VP & CFO | 54 |
| Ms. Nicole Susan Jones J.D. | Executive Vice President, Chief Administrative Officer & Chief Human Resources Officer | 54 |
| Mr. F. Everett Neville | Executive VP & Special Advisor to the CEO | 60 |
| Ms. Jamie Kates | Senior VP & Tax and Global Chief Accounting Officer | 45 |
| Mr. Durga Prasad Koka | Executive Vice President & Global Chief Information Officer | - |
| Mr. Ralph Giacobbe | Senior Vice President of Investor Relations | - |
| Ms. Andrea Nelson | EVP, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary | - |
| Ms. Melissa Skottegaard | Executive Vice President, Chief Marketing & Communications Officer | - |
Audit Risk
1
Board Risk
4
Compensation Risk
7
Shareholder Rights Risk
7
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-02-26
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-07-30
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-10-09
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much CI moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 28% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 28.0%
- Volatility 90d
- 28.1%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- 0.14Correlation 0.05
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -20.9%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 2.50%
Earnings reactions
How CI moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
Nov 5, 2026 · In 12 days · Before the open
EPS estimate: 7.51Revenue estimate: $72.4B
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 4.1% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 4, down 8 (out of 12).
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | During the session | 7.83 | 7.78 | -0.6% | -3.5% | -3.0% | -8.8% |
| Apr 30, 2026 | During the session | 7.84 | 7.79 | -0.7% | +0.5% | -0.6% | -3.5% |
| Feb 5, 2026 | During the session | 8.11 | 8.08 | -0.4% | +2.0% | +4.7% | +8.5% |
| Oct 30, 2025 | During the session | 7.88 | 7.83 | -0.6% | -11.4% | -17.4% | -13.2% |
| Jul 31, 2025 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -1.6% | -10.2% | -9.4% |
| May 2, 2025 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +2.6% | -0.1% | -0.6% |
| Jan 30, 2025 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -9.3% | -6.7% | -3.3% |
| Oct 31, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +6.5% | +0.6% | +0.7% |
| Aug 1, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -3.6% | -4.6% | -5.6% |
| May 2, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +0.8% | -3.6% | -2.8% |
| Feb 2, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +2.8% | +5.4% | +8.1% |
| Nov 2, 2023 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -1.0% | +3.1% | -4.5% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on CI and what the price did next.
- 3/6/2026PositiveHere's How Much $1000 Invested In Cigna Group 15 Years Ago Would Be Worth Today
- +1 day
- -1.6%
- +3 days
- -4.5%
- 3/3/2026NegativeCigna Stock Falls After CEO Retirement Announcement
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for CI.
- 9/8/2026NEUTRALCigna Healthcare on Business Strategy
Jason Sadler, International Health Global President at Cigna Healthcare, provided insights into the company's business strategy, addressing the dual forces of increasing AI adoption and escalating healthcare expenditures. While the discussion highlights Cigna's navigation of these significant industry trends, it does not present specific financial figures or forward-looking guidance that would indicate a definitive positive or negative impact on the company's immediate stock performance. Investors will monitor Cigna's strategic execution in response to these evolving market dynamics.
- 5/22/2026NEUTRALHere's How Much You Would Have Made Owning Cigna Group Stock In The Last 20 Years
An analysis of The Cigna Group's stock performance over the past two decades reveals a significant historical return for investors. While specific figures are not detailed in this summary, the article implies substantial long-term gains. This historical perspective is crucial for investors evaluating Cigna's potential for future growth and stability, offering insights into its resilience and market position through various economic cycles. The focus remains on past performance rather than current catalysts.
- 3/6/2026POSITIVEHere's How Much $1000 Invested In Cigna Group 15 Years Ago Would Be Worth Today
An investment of $1000 in Cigna Group 15 years ago would have grown to approximately $10,500 today, representing a substantial return on investment. This performance highlights the company's long-term growth trajectory and its ability to generate significant shareholder value over an extended period. Investors who held Cigna stock through various market cycles would have benefited from its strategic initiatives and market positioning within the health insurance and services sector. The impressive growth suggests a robust business model and effective management.
- 3/3/2026NEGATIVECigna Stock Falls After CEO Retirement Announcement
Shares of The Cigna Group (NYSE:CI) experienced a significant decline on Tuesday, following the announcement of CEO David Cordani's retirement. The news immediately triggered a negative market reaction, highlighting investor sensitivity to leadership changes in major corporations. Cordani, a key figure for the healthcare giant, leaves a void that generates uncertainty about the company's future strategic and operational direction. Analysts suggest that the leadership transition could lead to a period of volatility for the stock, as the market awaits clarity on subsequent plans and the identity of the successor. For investors, this event underscores the importance of managerial stability in complex sectors like healthcare.
- 3/3/2026NEUTRALCigna’s longtime CEO to step down as health insurers face growing scrutiny
Cigna Group, a major player in the health insurance sector, has announced a significant leadership transition. David Cordani, who has served as CEO for an impressive 27 years, will step down. He will be succeeded by Brian Evanko, a seasoned company veteran, ensuring a degree of continuity in leadership. This change comes at a time when health insurers are facing increased scrutiny, adding complexity to the new CEO's mandate. For investors, the appointment of an internal successor like Evanko suggests a focus on stability and a continuation of existing strategies, potentially mitigating immediate market volatility. However, the broader industry challenges mean Evanko will need to navigate a demanding regulatory and competitive landscape, making his strategic direction crucial for Cigna's future performance.