Elevance Health Inc (ELV)
Fair ValueFundamental
70
Price
$439.95
Market Cap
$94.15B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Elevance Health is one of the largest health insurers in the United States, serving approximately 45.7 million medical members as of December 31, 2024. The company operates as an independent Blue Cross and Blue Shield licensee and provides comprehensive managed care coverage across Individual, Employer Group, Medicaid, and Medicare markets. Through its Carelon division, it also offers integrated specialty services including pharmacy (CarelonRx), behavioral health, dental, vision, and medical management services to both its own insurance members and affiliated health plans.
How it makes money
Elevance generates revenue primarily through risk-based health insurance premiums across multiple segments, supplemented by fee-based administrative services, pharmacy services, and specialty care offerings. Revenue comes from three main streams: premiums from its Health Benefits segment (Individual, Employer Group risk-based and fee-based, Medicare, Medicaid, and Federal Employee Program products), operating revenue from CarelonRx pharmacy services, and Carelon Services integrated care management. The company also generates revenue from stop-loss arrangements, medical management services, and provider network operations.
Revenue by segment
The primary operating segment providing risk-based and fee-based managed care insurance plans across Individual, Employer Group, Medicare Advantage, Medicaid, and Federal Employee Program (FEP) products. This segment serves the broadest customer base and generated $150.3 billion in operating revenue in 2024, representing the largest portion of company revenue.
Specialty pharmacy services segment providing pharmacy benefit management, specialty pharmacy, and related services to Elevance's own health plans and third-party clients. Generated $36.0 billion in operating revenue in 2024.
Integrated care services platform providing medical management, behavioral health, dental, vision, and supplemental benefits services. Operates both for Elevance members and as a standalone provider for third-party clients. Generated $18.0 billion in operating revenue in 2024.
Competitive moat
Scale · WideElevance's durable competitive advantage derives from its substantial scale (45.7 million members), which enables economies in administrative costs, provider network negotiations, and product development. The company benefits from exclusive Blue Cross and Blue Shield brand licenses across 14 states, creating strong local brand recognition and switching costs for employers managing thousands of employees. Deep provider network integration and regulatory barriers to entry in health insurance further strengthen its position.
What drives demand
Moderately cyclicalElevance's demand is moderately cyclical. Healthcare demand remains relatively defensive during economic downturns due to essential nature of medical care, but Medicaid and employer group coverage are more economically sensitive. Aging U.S. population drives growth in Medicare Advantage (defensive). Government program utilization (Medicare/Medicaid) expands during recessions as unemployment rises. Employer-sponsored coverage contracts in downturns as businesses reduce headcount.
Key risks
- Medical Cost Inflation and Cost Management — Elevance's profitability depends on accurately predicting and managing healthcare costs. Medical cost inflation, increased utilization of services, shifts in member demographics toward higher-cost populations, and emerging medical conditions could erode margins. The company faces challenges particularly in Medicaid, where state reimbursement rates have lagged the actual cost of medical services, creating unsustainable margins.
- Regulatory and Political Risk — Changes in federal and state regulations, particularly affecting Medicare and Medicaid programs, could significantly impact revenue and profitability. Recent disputes with CMS over Medicare Advantage risk adjustment data and star ratings have resulted in $935 million in reserves and $342 million in payments. Political pressure on drug pricing and healthcare reform pose ongoing threats.
- Cybersecurity and Data Breach Risk — As a health insurer handling sensitive personal and health information, Elevance faces significant cybersecurity risks. Techniques used by attackers evolve rapidly and become increasingly sophisticated. A significant cyber-attack or data breach could result in substantial costs for remediation, regulatory penalties, reputational damage, and loss of member trust.
- Market Competition and New Entrants — The managed care industry faces intense competition from established national insurers, regional competitors, and new entrants including technology companies entering healthcare. Competitors may offer innovative products, lower prices, or differentiated service models that could pressure margins and market share. The competitive landscape is rapidly evolving.
- Enrollment and Market Exit Risk — Elevance faces risks from enrollment volatility, including reductions in Medicaid membership, employer group downsizing, and market exits. The company has announced plans to exit unprofitable Medicaid markets over the next 12-18 months. Such exits reduce revenue and addressable market size, though may improve long-term profitability in remaining markets.
Customer concentration
Elevance serves a diverse customer base across Individual, Employer Group, Medicare, Medicaid, and Federal Employee Program markets, which limits concentration risk. U.S. government agencies (primarily Medicare and Medicaid) account for approximately 32% of consolidated revenue (2025 data). No single employer group customer represents a dominant share of revenue, and Individual market enrollment is widely distributed. This diversification across customer types and markets reduces dependency on any single customer or market segment.
The case for
Buyers argue that Elevance is attractively valued with trailing and forward P/E ratios that support continued investment. The company has demonstrated operational improvements in cost management and benefit expense ratios. Its massive scale (45.7 million members) and exclusive BCBS brand licenses create sustainable competitive advantages. The aging U.S. population supports long-term Medicare Advantage growth. CEO Gail Boudreaux's strategic initiatives, including Carelon platform expansion for integrated value-based care, position the company to capture growing demand for whole-health solutions. The company generates strong free cash flow, and management has raised earnings guidance with expectations for 12% adjusted EPS growth in 2027.
The case against
Sellers fear that Medicaid margin pressure is structural and worsening, with state reimbursement rates failing to cover medical costs. The company's planned exit from unprofitable Medicaid markets shrinks revenue and signals deteriorating fundamentals. Medicare Advantage faces regulatory headwinds, including the $935 million risk adjustment dispute reserve and $342 million in CMS payments for star rating issues, raising questions about future profitability. Medical cost inflation continues to outpace rate increases, particularly in Medicaid. Competitive pressures from national insurers and new healthcare entrants threaten market share. High switching costs suggest investors pay a premium that may not be justified if underlying profitability deteriorates further.
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 21, 2026, shared with all users
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 18, 2026, shared with all users
The largest US health insurer, bidding against Elevance for the same employer contracts, Medicare Advantage members and state Medicaid programs, and pairing insurance with health services just as Elevance does with Carelon.
Through Aetna it sells commercial, Medicare Advantage and Medicaid plans in the same states as Elevance, and its pharmacy benefit arm competes for the same drug-benefit spending.
The biggest Medicaid managed-care company in the country and Elevance's main rival in state Medicaid procurements and on the Affordable Care Act exchanges.
Competes head-on for large national and multi-state employer accounts, the segment where Elevance's Blue Cross Blue Shield network is its main selling point.
Concentrated on Medicare Advantage, where it competes for the same over-65 members Elevance is courting as its fastest-growing business.
A pure-play government-programs insurer that bids against Elevance for the same state Medicaid and dual-eligible contracts.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$199.13B
Fiscal year ended 12/31/2025
Net Income
$5.66B
Fiscal year ended 12/31/2025
Free Cash Flow
$3.17B
Total Equity
$43.88B
Total Liabilities
$77.47B
Current Ratio
1.47
Interest Coverage
5.13
Debt/EBITDA
3.52
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$568.70
Current Price
$439.95
Margin of Safety
+22.6%
Fair Value Range
$369.66 - $767.75
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
17.22
ROE
12.9%
P/B Ratio
2.13
P/FCF
14.59
Gross Margin
89.4%
ROIC
7.1%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
7.1%
WACC
6.9%
ROIC − WACC
+0.1 pp
ROIC is roughly in line with the cost of capital — the company is barely covering its capital cost.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (20)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR 8.76%
- Price CAGR 11.53%
- ROIC 7.1%
- Gross margin 89.4%
- P/FCF 14.59
- P/B ratio 2.13
- Debt/equity ratio
- Positive free cash flow
- CapEx intensity
- Current ratio
- Interest coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on tangible assets
- ROE 11.2%
- Revenue growth 5Y 10.3%
- Earnings surprise, average 22.1%
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 0.76
- Share dilution -3.6%
- Piotroski F-Score 7/9
Failed (5)
- Operating margin 3.6%
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- PEG ratio 2.71
Unavailable (2)
- Dividend payout –
- Net margin trend (invalid data)
Piotroski F-Score
Strong financial health
Earnings Quality
Moderate: some gap between profits and cash
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Ms. Gail Koziara Boudreaux | President, CEO & Director | 64 |
| Mr. Mark Bradley Kaye | Executive VP & CFO | 45 |
| Mr. Peter David Haytaian Esq. | Special Advisor | 55 |
| Mr. Charles Morgan Kendrick Jr. | EVP and President of Commercial & Specialty Health Benefits | 59 |
| Ms. Felicia Farr Norwood | Executive VP & Chief Health Benefits Officer | 65 |
| Mr. Scott Wayne Anglin | SVP, Treasurer & Chief Investment Officer | - |
| Mr. Ronald William Penczek | Senior VP, Controller & Chief Accounting Officer | 60 |
| Mr. Nathan Allen Rich | Vice President of Investor Relations | - |
| Ms. Erin M. Wessling | Executive VP & Chief Legal Officer | 47 |
| Ms. Julie Goon | Senior Vice President of Public Affairs | - |
Audit Risk
1
Board Risk
1
Compensation Risk
2
Shareholder Rights Risk
6
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-02-06
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-10-21
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-10-21
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much ELV moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 40% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 21.7%
- Volatility 90d
- 32.3%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- 0.30Correlation 0.11
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -26.5%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 2.60%
Earnings reactions
How ELV moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
No upcoming release on the calendar.
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 3.0% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 6, down 6 (out of 12).
- Of the 5 releases that beat estimates, the stock fell the next day after 3.
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | Before the open | 4.69 | 6.99 | +48.9% | +1.1% | -1.4% | n/a |
| Jul 15, 2026 | During the session | 6.27 | 7.45 | +18.9% | -8.0% | -8.5% | -7.8% |
| Apr 22, 2026 | During the session | 10.93 | 12.58 | +15.1% | +3.0% | 0.0% | +10.6% |
| Jan 28, 2026 | During the session | 3.13 | 3.33 | +6.5% | -2.3% | +5.9% | +4.9% |
| Oct 21, 2025 | During the session | 4.98 | 6.03 | +21.0% | -2.6% | -1.2% | -3.3% |
| Jul 17, 2025 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -3.1% | -12.2% | -13.9% |
| Apr 22, 2025 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +0.9% | +2.3% | +1.8% |
| Jan 23, 2025 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +3.6% | +2.7% | +2.4% |
| Oct 17, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -18.5% | -10.6% | -16.4% |
| Jul 17, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | -4.9% | -5.8% | -9.2% |
| Apr 18, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +2.3% | +3.2% | +4.9% |
| Jan 24, 2024 | During the session | n/a | n/a | n/a | +3.7% | +0.3% | +4.3% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on ELV and what the price did next.
- 10/21/2026PositiveElevance Raises Full-Year Guidance on Lower Medical Costs
- +1 day
- -1.9%
- +3 days
- pending
- 4/22/2026PositiveElevance Health Earnings And Guidance Hike Offset Cost Concerns
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 4/7/2026PositiveElevance Health Stock Soars After 2.48% Medicare Rate Increase
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 3/2/2026NegativeElevance Health Stock Sinks After CMS Freezes Medicare Advantage Enrollment
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 2/25/2026PositiveHeadline no longer in the latest news feed
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
- 2/25/2026PositiveAfter stints at Nike and Kohl’s, Elevance Health’s CDIO pivots to using tech to bring more ‘delight’ to health care
Published while the US market was open: the move of that day cannot be split into before and after the news, so no figure is shown.
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for ELV.
- 3d agoPOSITIVEElevance Raises Full-Year Guidance on Lower Medical Costs
Elevance Health Inc. has boosted its full-year profit outlook, citing a stronger-than-anticipated third quarter and projections for next year that surpass current Wall Street estimates. This upward revision reflects the healthcare provider's increasing confidence in its strategy to enhance profitability within its insurance segment. The company's improved financial performance and optimistic forward guidance suggest a robust recovery and potential for sustained growth, which is likely to be viewed favorably by investors.
- 4/22/2026POSITIVEElevance Health Earnings And Guidance Hike Offset Cost Concerns
Elevance Health exceeded first-quarter earnings expectations, reporting $6.05 per share against a consensus of $5.70, a 6.1% beat. The company also raised its full-year 2026 outlook, projecting adjusted earnings per share between $18.40 and $18.80, up from the previous guidance of $18.20 to $18.60. This upward revision, coupled with steady revenue growth, suggests strong operational performance. However, investors should note the company flagged increased cost pressures in its Medicaid business and a significant accrual related to CMS rates, which could impact future profitability.
- 4/7/2026POSITIVEElevance Health Stock Soars After 2.48% Medicare Rate Increase
Elevance Health Inc. experienced a significant surge on Tuesday following the finalization of a substantial 2.48% increase in Medicare Advantage reimbursement rates for 2027 by federal regulators. This favorable adjustment is expected to directly boost the company's revenue streams from its government-backed health insurance plans. For investors, this news signals improved profitability prospects and a more robust financial outlook for Elevance Health, potentially leading to upward price target revisions and increased institutional interest.
- 3/2/2026NEGATIVEElevance Health Stock Sinks After CMS Freezes Medicare Advantage Enrollment
Markets Gazette reports a significant decline in Elevance Health's stock value following the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) decision to freeze new enrollments in its Medicare Advantage program. The CMS action stems from serious compliance concerns dating back to 2018. This halt in new admissions represents a substantial blow to Elevance Health, as the Medicare Advantage program is a critical component of its business and future growth strategy. Investors reacted sharply, driving the stock price down, reflecting uncertainty about the long-term financial impact of these restrictions and the company's reputation. The situation demands careful management from the company's leadership to restore regulatory and market confidence.
- 2/25/2026POSITIVEAfter stints at Nike and Kohl’s, Elevance Health’s CDIO pivots to using tech to bring more ‘delight’ to health care
Elevance Health welcomes Ratnakar Lavu as its new Chief Digital Information Officer (CDIO), a strategic move poised to infuse innovation into the healthcare sector. Lavu, with significant experience gained at retail giants like Nike and Kohl's, aims to apply his technological expertise to enhance customer experience and bring more 'delight' to healthcare. This appointment suggests a strong commitment from Elevance Health to adopting advanced digital solutions to optimize services and user interaction. Investors might interpret this direction as a catalyst for operational efficiency and future growth, positioning the company at the forefront of the sector's digital evolution.
- 2/24/2026NEUTRALElevance Health Executive: Committed to Affordability
Catherine Gaffigan, president of health solutions at Elevance Health, highlighted utilization as a key driver of rising healthcare costs. Speaking on Bloomberg's The Close, she elaborated that an aging population, coupled with higher pharmaceutical and hospital expenses, significantly contributes to this trend. These insights provide investors with an internal perspective on the structural challenges facing the healthcare sector. While Elevance Health is committed to affordability, the discussion around cost drivers underscores the complexity of the current landscape and the long-term pressures on healthcare providers and insurers. For investors, understanding these factors is crucial for assessing the sustainability of business models within the industry.