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Elevance Health Inc (ELV)

Fair Value
HealthcareHealthcare PlansUnited States

Fundamental

70

Price

$439.95

Market Cap

$94.15B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

Elevance Health is one of the largest health insurers in the United States, serving approximately 45.7 million medical members as of December 31, 2024. The company operates as an independent Blue Cross and Blue Shield licensee and provides comprehensive managed care coverage across Individual, Employer Group, Medicaid, and Medicare markets. Through its Carelon division, it also offers integrated specialty services including pharmacy (CarelonRx), behavioral health, dental, vision, and medical management services to both its own insurance members and affiliated health plans.

How it makes money

Elevance generates revenue primarily through risk-based health insurance premiums across multiple segments, supplemented by fee-based administrative services, pharmacy services, and specialty care offerings. Revenue comes from three main streams: premiums from its Health Benefits segment (Individual, Employer Group risk-based and fee-based, Medicare, Medicaid, and Federal Employee Program products), operating revenue from CarelonRx pharmacy services, and Carelon Services integrated care management. The company also generates revenue from stop-loss arrangements, medical management services, and provider network operations.

Revenue by segment

Health Benefitsshare not disclosed

The primary operating segment providing risk-based and fee-based managed care insurance plans across Individual, Employer Group, Medicare Advantage, Medicaid, and Federal Employee Program (FEP) products. This segment serves the broadest customer base and generated $150.3 billion in operating revenue in 2024, representing the largest portion of company revenue.

CarelonRxshare not disclosed

Specialty pharmacy services segment providing pharmacy benefit management, specialty pharmacy, and related services to Elevance's own health plans and third-party clients. Generated $36.0 billion in operating revenue in 2024.

Carelon Servicesshare not disclosed

Integrated care services platform providing medical management, behavioral health, dental, vision, and supplemental benefits services. Operates both for Elevance members and as a standalone provider for third-party clients. Generated $18.0 billion in operating revenue in 2024.

Competitive moat

Scale · Wide

Elevance's durable competitive advantage derives from its substantial scale (45.7 million members), which enables economies in administrative costs, provider network negotiations, and product development. The company benefits from exclusive Blue Cross and Blue Shield brand licenses across 14 states, creating strong local brand recognition and switching costs for employers managing thousands of employees. Deep provider network integration and regulatory barriers to entry in health insurance further strengthen its position.

What drives demand

Moderately cyclical

Elevance's demand is moderately cyclical. Healthcare demand remains relatively defensive during economic downturns due to essential nature of medical care, but Medicaid and employer group coverage are more economically sensitive. Aging U.S. population drives growth in Medicare Advantage (defensive). Government program utilization (Medicare/Medicaid) expands during recessions as unemployment rises. Employer-sponsored coverage contracts in downturns as businesses reduce headcount.

Key risks

  • Medical Cost Inflation and Cost Management — Elevance's profitability depends on accurately predicting and managing healthcare costs. Medical cost inflation, increased utilization of services, shifts in member demographics toward higher-cost populations, and emerging medical conditions could erode margins. The company faces challenges particularly in Medicaid, where state reimbursement rates have lagged the actual cost of medical services, creating unsustainable margins.
  • Regulatory and Political Risk — Changes in federal and state regulations, particularly affecting Medicare and Medicaid programs, could significantly impact revenue and profitability. Recent disputes with CMS over Medicare Advantage risk adjustment data and star ratings have resulted in $935 million in reserves and $342 million in payments. Political pressure on drug pricing and healthcare reform pose ongoing threats.
  • Cybersecurity and Data Breach Risk — As a health insurer handling sensitive personal and health information, Elevance faces significant cybersecurity risks. Techniques used by attackers evolve rapidly and become increasingly sophisticated. A significant cyber-attack or data breach could result in substantial costs for remediation, regulatory penalties, reputational damage, and loss of member trust.
  • Market Competition and New Entrants — The managed care industry faces intense competition from established national insurers, regional competitors, and new entrants including technology companies entering healthcare. Competitors may offer innovative products, lower prices, or differentiated service models that could pressure margins and market share. The competitive landscape is rapidly evolving.
  • Enrollment and Market Exit Risk — Elevance faces risks from enrollment volatility, including reductions in Medicaid membership, employer group downsizing, and market exits. The company has announced plans to exit unprofitable Medicaid markets over the next 12-18 months. Such exits reduce revenue and addressable market size, though may improve long-term profitability in remaining markets.

Customer concentration

Elevance serves a diverse customer base across Individual, Employer Group, Medicare, Medicaid, and Federal Employee Program markets, which limits concentration risk. U.S. government agencies (primarily Medicare and Medicaid) account for approximately 32% of consolidated revenue (2025 data). No single employer group customer represents a dominant share of revenue, and Individual market enrollment is widely distributed. This diversification across customer types and markets reduces dependency on any single customer or market segment.

The case for

Buyers argue that Elevance is attractively valued with trailing and forward P/E ratios that support continued investment. The company has demonstrated operational improvements in cost management and benefit expense ratios. Its massive scale (45.7 million members) and exclusive BCBS brand licenses create sustainable competitive advantages. The aging U.S. population supports long-term Medicare Advantage growth. CEO Gail Boudreaux's strategic initiatives, including Carelon platform expansion for integrated value-based care, position the company to capture growing demand for whole-health solutions. The company generates strong free cash flow, and management has raised earnings guidance with expectations for 12% adjusted EPS growth in 2027.

The case against

Sellers fear that Medicaid margin pressure is structural and worsening, with state reimbursement rates failing to cover medical costs. The company's planned exit from unprofitable Medicaid markets shrinks revenue and signals deteriorating fundamentals. Medicare Advantage faces regulatory headwinds, including the $935 million risk adjustment dispute reserve and $342 million in CMS payments for star rating issues, raising questions about future profitability. Medical cost inflation continues to outpace rate increases, particularly in Medicaid. Competitive pressures from national insurers and new healthcare entrants threaten market share. High switching costs suggest investors pay a premium that may not be justified if underlying profitability deteriorates further.

Generated with artificial intelligence on September 21, 2026, shared with all users

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated with artificial intelligence on September 18, 2026, shared with all users

P/E: 26.8Score: 80Market cap: $360.32B

The largest US health insurer, bidding against Elevance for the same employer contracts, Medicare Advantage members and state Medicaid programs, and pairing insurance with health services just as Elevance does with Carelon.

P/E: 24.7Score: 68Market cap: $119.52B

Through Aetna it sells commercial, Medicare Advantage and Medicaid plans in the same states as Elevance, and its pharmacy benefit arm competes for the same drug-benefit spending.

P/E: —Score: 61Market cap: $34.70B

The biggest Medicaid managed-care company in the country and Elevance's main rival in state Medicaid procurements and on the Affordable Care Act exchanges.

P/E: 12.7Score: 78Market cap: $80.43B

Competes head-on for large national and multi-state employer accounts, the segment where Elevance's Blue Cross Blue Shield network is its main selling point.

P/E: 45.0Score: 69Market cap: $51.08B

Concentrated on Medicare Advantage, where it competes for the same over-65 members Elevance is courting as its fastest-growing business.

Molina Healthcare, Inc.MOH

A pure-play government-programs insurer that bids against Elevance for the same state Medicaid and dual-eligible contracts.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$199.13B

Fiscal year ended 12/31/2025

Net Income

$5.66B

Fiscal year ended 12/31/2025

Free Cash Flow

$3.17B

Total Equity

$43.88B

Total Liabilities

$77.47B

Current Ratio

1.47

Interest Coverage

5.13

Debt/EBITDA

3.52

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

General caseFairly Valued

Fair Value

$568.70

Current Price

$439.95

Margin of Safety

+22.6%

Fair Value Range

$369.66 - $767.75

Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.

Estimation Methods

Analyst price target:$456.00
Discounted cash flow (DCF):$1073.25
Earnings multiple (P/E):$328.53
Graham growth formula:$465.88
Earnings power value (EPV):$329.21
Justified P/B:$356.30
Dividend discount (Gordon):$175.65
P/FFO, funds from operations:$533.79
Mid-cycle earnings:$1133.92
Revenue multiple:$3487.50
Last Earnings Surprise:+47.81%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

17.22

ROE

12.9%

P/B Ratio

2.13

P/FCF

14.59

Gross Margin

89.4%

ROIC

7.1%

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

7.1%

WACC

6.9%

ROIC − WACC

+0.1 pp

ROIC is roughly in line with the cost of capital — the company is barely covering its capital cost.

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (20)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 8.76%
  • Price CAGR 11.53%
  • ROIC 7.1%
  • Gross margin 89.4%
  • P/FCF 14.59
  • P/B ratio 2.13
  • Debt/equity ratio
  • Positive free cash flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current ratio
  • Interest coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on tangible assets
  • ROE 11.2%
  • Revenue growth 5Y 10.3%
  • Earnings surprise, average 22.1%
  • Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 0.76
  • Share dilution -3.6%
  • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

Failed (5)

  • Operating margin 3.6%
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • PEG ratio 2.71

Unavailable (2)

  • Dividend payout –
  • Net margin trend (invalid data)

Piotroski F-Score

7/9

Strong financial health

ROA > 0
Operating cash flow > 0
ΔROA > 0
Cash flow > net income
Leverage ↓
Current ratio ↑
No dilution
Gross margin ↑
Asset turnover ↑

Earnings Quality

0.76

Moderate: some gap between profits and cash

Share Dilution

-3.6%

Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly

Institutional Holdings

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Ms. Gail Koziara BoudreauxPresident, CEO & Director64
Mr. Mark Bradley KayeExecutive VP & CFO45
Mr. Peter David Haytaian Esq.Special Advisor55
Mr. Charles Morgan Kendrick Jr.EVP and President of Commercial & Specialty Health Benefits59
Ms. Felicia Farr NorwoodExecutive VP & Chief Health Benefits Officer65
Mr. Scott Wayne AnglinSVP, Treasurer & Chief Investment Officer-
Mr. Ronald William PenczekSenior VP, Controller & Chief Accounting Officer60
Mr. Nathan Allen RichVice President of Investor Relations-
Ms. Erin M. WesslingExecutive VP & Chief Legal Officer47
Ms. Julie GoonSenior Vice President of Public Affairs-

Audit Risk

1

Board Risk

1

Compensation Risk

2

Shareholder Rights Risk

6

Documents

  • Annual Report (10-K)

    A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.

    Filed on 2026-02-06

    View document
  • Quarterly Report (10-Q)

    A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.

    Filed on 2026-10-21

    View document
  • Current Report (8-K)

    An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.

    Filed on 2026-10-21

    View document

via SEC EDGAR

Income History

via SEC EDGAR

Part 2 · The price and its context

This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Market Reaction Profile

How much ELV moves, measured on its daily prices.

VolatilityMedium

More volatile than 40% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).

Volatility 30d
21.7%
Volatility 90d
32.3%
Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
0.30Correlation 0.11
Max drawdown (12m)
-26.5%
ATR (14d, % of price)
2.60%

Earnings reactions

How ELV moved around its past quarterly results.

Next earnings release

No upcoming release on the calendar.

What usually happens

  • Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 3.0% the next day, up or down.
  • Next-day moves: up 6, down 6 (out of 12).
  • Of the 5 releases that beat estimates, the stock fell the next day after 3.

Release history

DateWhen EPS est.EPS actualSurprise Gap 1 day5 days
Oct 21, 2026Before the open4.696.99+48.9% +1.1% -1.4% n/a
Jul 15, 2026During the session6.277.45+18.9% -8.0% -8.5% -7.8%
Apr 22, 2026During the session10.9312.58+15.1% +3.0% 0.0% +10.6%
Jan 28, 2026During the session3.133.33+6.5% -2.3% +5.9% +4.9%
Oct 21, 2025During the session4.986.03+21.0% -2.6% -1.2% -3.3%
Jul 17, 2025During the sessionn/an/an/a-3.1% -12.2% -13.9%
Apr 22, 2025During the sessionn/an/an/a+0.9% +2.3% +1.8%
Jan 23, 2025During the sessionn/an/an/a+3.6% +2.7% +2.4%
Oct 17, 2024During the sessionn/an/an/a-18.5% -10.6% -16.4%
Jul 17, 2024During the sessionn/an/an/a-4.9% -5.8% -9.2%
Apr 18, 2024During the sessionn/an/an/a+2.3% +3.2% +4.9%
Jan 24, 2024During the sessionn/an/an/a+3.7% +0.3% +4.3%

Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.

Updated 10/24/2026

Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.

Price reaction to the news

Latest news on ELV and what the price did next.

Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.

Latest News

Recent headlines for ELV.

  • 3d agoPOSITIVE
    Elevance Raises Full-Year Guidance on Lower Medical Costs

    Elevance Health Inc. has boosted its full-year profit outlook, citing a stronger-than-anticipated third quarter and projections for next year that surpass current Wall Street estimates. This upward revision reflects the healthcare provider's increasing confidence in its strategy to enhance profitability within its insurance segment. The company's improved financial performance and optimistic forward guidance suggest a robust recovery and potential for sustained growth, which is likely to be viewed favorably by investors.

  • 4/22/2026POSITIVE
    Elevance Health Earnings And Guidance Hike Offset Cost Concerns

    Elevance Health exceeded first-quarter earnings expectations, reporting $6.05 per share against a consensus of $5.70, a 6.1% beat. The company also raised its full-year 2026 outlook, projecting adjusted earnings per share between $18.40 and $18.80, up from the previous guidance of $18.20 to $18.60. This upward revision, coupled with steady revenue growth, suggests strong operational performance. However, investors should note the company flagged increased cost pressures in its Medicaid business and a significant accrual related to CMS rates, which could impact future profitability.

  • 4/7/2026POSITIVE
    Elevance Health Stock Soars After 2.48% Medicare Rate Increase

    Elevance Health Inc. experienced a significant surge on Tuesday following the finalization of a substantial 2.48% increase in Medicare Advantage reimbursement rates for 2027 by federal regulators. This favorable adjustment is expected to directly boost the company's revenue streams from its government-backed health insurance plans. For investors, this news signals improved profitability prospects and a more robust financial outlook for Elevance Health, potentially leading to upward price target revisions and increased institutional interest.

  • 3/2/2026NEGATIVE
    Elevance Health Stock Sinks After CMS Freezes Medicare Advantage Enrollment

    Markets Gazette reports a significant decline in Elevance Health's stock value following the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) decision to freeze new enrollments in its Medicare Advantage program. The CMS action stems from serious compliance concerns dating back to 2018. This halt in new admissions represents a substantial blow to Elevance Health, as the Medicare Advantage program is a critical component of its business and future growth strategy. Investors reacted sharply, driving the stock price down, reflecting uncertainty about the long-term financial impact of these restrictions and the company's reputation. The situation demands careful management from the company's leadership to restore regulatory and market confidence.

  • 2/25/2026POSITIVE
    After stints at Nike and Kohl’s, Elevance Health’s CDIO pivots to using tech to bring more ‘delight’ to health care

    Elevance Health welcomes Ratnakar Lavu as its new Chief Digital Information Officer (CDIO), a strategic move poised to infuse innovation into the healthcare sector. Lavu, with significant experience gained at retail giants like Nike and Kohl's, aims to apply his technological expertise to enhance customer experience and bring more 'delight' to healthcare. This appointment suggests a strong commitment from Elevance Health to adopting advanced digital solutions to optimize services and user interaction. Investors might interpret this direction as a catalyst for operational efficiency and future growth, positioning the company at the forefront of the sector's digital evolution.

  • 2/24/2026NEUTRAL
    Elevance Health Executive: Committed to Affordability

    Catherine Gaffigan, president of health solutions at Elevance Health, highlighted utilization as a key driver of rising healthcare costs. Speaking on Bloomberg's The Close, she elaborated that an aging population, coupled with higher pharmaceutical and hospital expenses, significantly contributes to this trend. These insights provide investors with an internal perspective on the structural challenges facing the healthcare sector. While Elevance Health is committed to affordability, the discussion around cost drivers underscores the complexity of the current landscape and the long-term pressures on healthcare providers and insurers. For investors, understanding these factors is crucial for assessing the sustainability of business models within the industry.