Dropbox, Inc. (DBX)
Fair ValueFundamental
69
Price
$37.83
Market Cap
$7.73B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Dropbox sells cloud storage and file-sharing subscriptions: customers pay a monthly or annual fee to keep files synced across devices and shared with others, rather than buying storage as a one-off purchase. Around the core storage product it has added e-signature (Dropbox Sign), document tracking (DocSend), form creation (FormSwift) and an AI-powered search tool (Dash), aiming to keep individuals, freelancers and small businesses inside one subscription instead of losing them to separate point solutions.
How it makes money
Revenue comes almost entirely from subscriptions billed to individuals, freelancers and small business teams rather than from large enterprise contracts, and the company reports it as a single business rather than in separate segments. Because storage itself has become a commodity that Microsoft and Google give away bundled into Office 365 and Google Workspace, Dropbox's ability to keep or raise prices depends on customers valuing its added tools enough to pay for a stand-alone product.
Competitive moat
No identified moat · NoneDropbox itself states that competitors with greater name recognition and larger user bases can bundle a broader range of products and undercut it on price, and that less expensive, bundled alternatives have already hurt its user growth. Files stored in Dropbox create some switching friction, but not enough to stop paying users from plateauing as Microsoft and Google give storage away for free inside suites customers already buy.
What drives demand
Moderately cyclicalDemand for Dropbox's core service is fairly steady — files and documents need to be stored and shared regardless of the economic cycle — but paying users have plateaued at around 18 million as free, bundled alternatives from Microsoft and Google absorb new demand. Growth now depends more on convincing existing customers to add tools like e-signature or AI search than on winning new storage customers, and small-business customers can also cut software spending in a downturn.
Key risks
- Competition from larger, bundled providers — The company states that competitors such as Microsoft, Google and Amazon have greater name recognition, larger user bases and the ability to bundle storage with broader product suites, and that less expensive, bundled offerings have already hurt user growth.
- Paying user growth has stalled — Paying users have plateaued at around 18 million, and fiscal 2025 revenue actually declined slightly year over year, reflecting weaker performance in Teams and reduced investment in FormSwift.
- Currency exposure — About half of revenue is generated outside the United States and 27% of sales are denominated in currencies other than the U.S. dollar, so a stronger dollar reduces reported revenue relative to costs.
Customer concentration
Top customers account for 1% of revenue
No single customer accounted for more than 1% of revenue in 2025, 2024 or 2023: revenue is spread across millions of individual and small-business subscribers rather than concentrated in a few large accounts.
The case for
Buyers argue that Dropbox's high operating margins and cash generation let it return capital to shareholders even with flat revenue, that expanding beyond storage into e-signature, document tracking and AI search gives it more to sell to an existing base with almost no customer concentration, and that a stabilized paying-user count of 18 million provides a steady subscription foundation.
The case against
Sellers worry that free, bundled storage inside Microsoft 365 and Google Workspace has commoditized Dropbox's core product and capped paying-user growth for years, that revenue actually declined slightly in 2025, and that newer tools like Dash AI have yet to prove they can offset churn in the core storage business.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 18, 2026, shared with all users
OneDrive and SharePoint, bundled into Microsoft 365, target the same business file storage and collaboration budget Dropbox sells into, and Dropbox names Microsoft first among its competitors.
iCloud paid storage tiers capture the consumer and prosumer subscription revenue Dropbox relies on, particularly among Mac and iPhone users who would otherwise pay Dropbox for sync across devices.
Adobe competes with Dropbox both in document workflow and, through Adobe Acrobat Sign, directly against Dropbox Sign for electronic signature subscriptions.
DocuSign is the reference product in electronic signature, the market Dropbox entered with Dropbox Sign and where the two chase the same contract-signing customers.
Dropbox names Box in its 10-K as its competitor for large-enterprise cloud storage deployments, where both sell content collaboration and governance to the same IT buyers.
Google Drive and Google Workspace compete for the same individual and small-business subscribers who pay for online file storage, sharing and document collaboration.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$2.53B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$443M
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$931M
Total Equity
$-1.80B
Total Liabilities
$4.64B
Current Ratio
1.07
Interest Coverage
-
Debt/EBITDA
0.85
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$40.59
Current Price
$37.83
Margin of Safety
+6.8%
Fair Value Range
$26.38 - $54.79
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
21.02
ROE
-28.3%
P/B Ratio
-
P/FCF
11.57
Gross Margin
79.7%
ROIC
32.3%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
32.3%
WACC
7.3%
ROIC − WACC
+25.0 pp
ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (16)
- EPS shows upward trend
- Price CAGR 6.66%
- ROIC 32.3%
- Gross margin 79.7%
- P/FCF 11.57
- Operating margin 26.6%
- Positive free cash flow
- CapEx intensity
- Current ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on tangible assets
- Revenue growth 5Y 5.7%
- Earnings surprise, average 5.4%
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 2.21
- Share dilution -15.4%
- Piotroski F-Score 6/9
Failed (4)
- Low reliance on intangibles
- DCF valuation (Fairly Valued)
- ROE -36.8%
- Net margin trend 17.5% vs 19.2%
Unavailable (6)
- P/B ratio –
- Dividend payout –
- Debt/equity ratio
- Interest coverage
- Price below Graham Number
- PEG ratio (needs P/E > 0 and growth > 0)
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Andrew W. Houston | Co-Founder, Co-CEO & Chairman | 42 |
| Mr. Ashraf Alkarmi | Co-CEO & Director | 46 |
| Mr. Ross Tennenbaum | Chief Financial Officer | 47 |
| Mr. Ali Dasdan | Chief Technology Officer | 55 |
| Mr. William Yoon | Chief Legal Officer | 46 |
| Ms. Sarah Elizabeth Schubach | Chief Accounting Officer | - |
| Ms. Saman Asheer | Chief Communications Officer | - |
| Mr. Boon Lai | Chief Marketing Officer | - |
| Ms. Melanie Rosenwasser | Chief People Officer | - |
| Mr. Eric Webster | Chief Business Officer | 47 |
Audit Risk
4
Board Risk
8
Compensation Risk
8
Shareholder Rights Risk
10
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-02-20
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-08-07
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-08-06
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much DBX moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 56% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 37.7%
- Volatility 90d
- 38.8%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- 0.23Correlation 0.08
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -29.1%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 2.94%
Earnings reactions
How DBX moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
Nov 5, 2026 · In 12 days · Time not known
EPS estimate: 0.73Revenue estimate: $629M
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 3.0% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 6, down 6 (out of 12).
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | After the close | 0.74 | 0.75 | +0.7% | +2.0% | +0.8% | +4.0% |
| May 7, 2026 | After the close | 0.70 | 0.76 | +8.0% | +9.1% | +15.0% | +4.3% |
| Feb 19, 2026 | After the close | 0.68 | 0.68 | 0.0% | -2.6% | +3.0% | +0.4% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | After the close | 0.65 | 0.74 | +13.1% | +8.0% | +7.7% | +6.0% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +4.3% | +2.7% | +5.8% |
| May 8, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +2.0% | -0.8% | -0.8% |
| Feb 20, 2025 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -7.4% | -16.2% | -18.6% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -3.0% | -3.0% | -0.8% |
| Aug 8, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +3.5% | +3.3% | +4.9% |
| May 9, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | +3.2% | 0.0% | +3.5% |
| Feb 15, 2024 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -14.0% | -22.9% | -26.2% |
| Nov 2, 2023 | After the close | n/a | n/a | n/a | -4.0% | -1.6% | -0.7% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on DBX and what the price did next.
- 3/9/2026NegativeIs Dropbox Stock a Buy or Sell After the CEO Sold Shares Worth $4.2 Million?
- +1 day
- -1.1%
- +3 days
- -1.3%
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for DBX.
- 3/9/2026NEGATIVEIs Dropbox Stock a Buy or Sell After the CEO Sold Shares Worth $4.2 Million?
Dropbox CEO Drew Houston offloaded 150,000 shares of the cloud storage company's stock for approximately $4.2 million. This significant insider selling, disclosed in a recent SEC filing, raises concerns among investors about the executive's confidence in the company's near-term prospects. While the sale represents a small fraction of Houston's total holdings, such large transactions can sometimes signal a lack of positive catalysts or potential headwinds ahead. Investors often interpret insider selling as a bearish signal, prompting a re-evaluation of their positions.