Marriott International (MAR)
OvervaluedFundamental
77
Price
$390.71
Market Cap
$101.19B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Marriott is the world's largest hotel company by room count, but it owns almost none of its roughly 9,000-plus hotels. Instead it manages properties on behalf of owners for a fee, or licenses its brands — Marriott, Sheraton, Westin, Ritz-Carlton and dozens of others — to independent hotel owners under franchise agreements. The owners fund construction and take the real-estate risk; Marriott supplies the brand, reservation system, loyalty programme and operating standards that let a traveller expect the same experience anywhere in the world.
How it makes money
Marriott earns franchise fees (a percentage of a hotel's room revenue for the right to use its brand) and base and incentive management fees (a percentage of revenue and profit for running a hotel day-to-day) — the real, high-margin core of the business. Its income statement also includes cost-reimbursement revenue: money hotel owners pay Marriott to cover payroll and other costs Marriott advances on their behalf, which shows up as revenue but carries essentially no profit, so it inflates the top line without adding to earnings.
Revenue by segment
Payroll and other costs Marriott advances for owners and gets reimbursed, recorded as revenue but carrying essentially no profit.
Fees charged to independent hotel owners for the right to use a Marriott brand, loyalty programme and reservation system.
Revenue from the small number of hotels Marriott owns or leases directly, plus other miscellaneous revenue.
A percentage of a managed hotel's revenue, paid to Marriott for running the property day-to-day.
A percentage of a managed hotel's profit, paid to Marriott only when the property performs well.
Competitive moat
Brand · WideMarriott's brands and its Bonvoy loyalty programme, with well over a hundred million members, give hotel owners a reason to pay a fee for something they could not generate on their own: a stream of loyal, repeat guests booking directly. That demand pull, built over decades across dozens of brands covering every price tier, is difficult for a smaller or newer chain to replicate quickly.
What drives demand
CyclicalHotel demand tracks business and leisure travel spending, which falls sharply when the economy weakens or a shock like a pandemic keeps people from travelling at all — and because Marriott's fees are a percentage of hotel revenue, its own income falls right along with occupancy and room rates. The franchise and fee model cushions Marriott from the fixed costs a hotel owner carries, but not from the revenue swings themselves.
Key risks
- Hotel demand tied to the travel cycle — Fee revenue is a percentage of hotel room revenue, so a recession, a pandemic-style shock, or any event that keeps people from travelling reduces Marriott's income even though it owns almost none of the real estate.
- Dependence on independent hotel owners — Management and franchise agreements can end early if an owner goes bankrupt or fails to meet performance standards, and Marriott needs a steady supply of owners willing to fund new hotel development under its brands.
- Brand and reputation risk from properties Marriott does not control day-to-day — Franchised hotels are run by their owners under the Marriott name; if an owner fails to maintain brand standards or has a well-publicised problem, it can damage the reputation of the whole brand family.
- Cybersecurity and data privacy — Marriott handles guest and loyalty-programme data across thousands of properties worldwide, including many run by franchisees with their own security practices, and a major breach can bring regulatory penalties and reputational damage.
The case for
Buyers argue that the asset-light franchise and management model lets Marriott grow its room count and fee income without tying up capital in real estate, that the Bonvoy loyalty programme keeps guests booking direct rather than through third-party sites, and that a large pipeline of signed development deals points to continued room growth ahead.
The case against
Sellers fear that fee income falls quickly in a travel downturn since it is a direct percentage of hotel revenue, that Marriott depends on independent owners continuing to fund new hotels under its brands, and that online travel agencies and loyalty-agnostic booking sites keep chipping away at the direct-booking advantage the brand and loyalty programme are supposed to provide.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated with artificial intelligence on September 19, 2026, shared with all users
Hilton runs the closest mirror of Marriott's business, franchising and managing a full ladder of brands from budget to luxury and courting the same business and leisure travellers with a rival loyalty programme.
Hyatt overlaps most directly at the upper-upscale and luxury end, chasing the same corporate accounts, group and conference bookings and resort guests as Marriott's Westin, Sheraton and Ritz-Carlton brands.
Wyndham is the leading franchisor in the economy and midscale segments, competing with Marriott's Fairfield, Four Points and City Express brands for budget-minded travellers and for owners of smaller roadside hotels.
Choice Hotels franchises midscale and extended-stay brands such as Comfort and WoodSpring across the United States, going after the same owners and the same price-sensitive domestic guests as Marriott's select-service brands.
IHG competes for the same hotel owners looking for a brand and a management contract, and for the same global travellers through brands such as Holiday Inn, Crowne Plaza and InterContinental.
Accor is Marriott's main rival in Europe, the Middle East and Asia-Pacific, where its brands from Ibis to Raffles compete for the same hotel owners and the same international guests.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$26.90B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$2.59B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$2.61B
Total Equity
$-3.77B
Total Liabilities
$31.31B
Current Ratio
0.53
Interest Coverage
5.01
Debt/EBITDA
3.69
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$259.36
Current Price
$390.71
Margin of Safety
-50.6%
Fair Value Range
$168.58 - $350.14
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
40.40
ROE
-69.0%
P/B Ratio
-
P/FCF
32.53
Gross Margin
-
ROIC
16.6%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
16.6%
WACC
9.8%
ROIC − WACC
+6.8 pp
ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (16)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR 9.93%
- Price CAGR 15.58%
- ROIC 16.6%
- Operating margin 15.8%
- Positive free cash flow
- CapEx intensity
- Interest coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on tangible assets
- ROE 309.1%
- Revenue growth 5Y 19.9%
- Earnings quality (operating cash flow / net income) 1.44
- Share dilution -4.1%
- Net margin trend 9.6% vs 9.6%
- Piotroski F-Score 6/9
Failed (5)
- P/FCF 32.53
- Current ratio
- Low reliance on intangibles
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Earnings surprise, average 1.9%
Unavailable (6)
- Gross margin –
- P/B ratio –
- Dividend payout –
- Debt/equity ratio
- Price below Graham Number
- PEG ratio (needs P/E > 0 and growth > 0)
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Anthony G. Capuano Jr. | President, CEO & Director | 59 |
| Ms. Rena Hozore Reiss J.D. | Executive VP & General Counsel | 65 |
| Mr. Benjamin T. Breland | Chief Human Resources Officer & Executive VP of Global Operations Services | 49 |
| Ms. Jennifer Mason | Executive VP & CFO | 55 |
| Mr. Robert Guidice | Chief Global Operations Officer | - |
| Ms. Felitia O. Lee | Controller & Chief Accounting Officer | 63 |
| Mr. Drew L. Pinto | Executive VP and Chief Revenue & Technology Officer | 52 |
| Ms. Jackie Burka McConagha | Senior Vice President of Investor Relations | - |
| Ms. Tricia A. Primrose | Executive VP and Chief Global Communications & Public Affairs Officer | - |
| Mr. Sabyasachi Chatterjee | Director of Sales & Marketing | - |
Audit Risk
5
Board Risk
5
Compensation Risk
5
Shareholder Rights Risk
9
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-02-10
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-08-03
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-09-24
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Part 2 · The price and its context
This part shows how the price has behaved, not whether the company is worth owning. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Market Reaction Profile
How much MAR moves, measured on its daily prices.
More volatile than 21% of the tracked stocks (90-day volatility).
- Volatility 30d
- 20.0%
- Volatility 90d
- 25.4%
- Beta vs S&P 500 (1y)
- 0.62Correlation 0.29
- Max drawdown (12m)
- -18.3%
- ATR (14d, % of price)
- 1.99%
Earnings reactions
How MAR moved around its past quarterly results.
Next earnings release
Nov 2, 2026 · In 9 days · Before the open
EPS estimate: 2.85Revenue estimate: $6.9B
What usually happens
- Over the last 12 releases the stock moved a median of 2.5% the next day, up or down.
- Next-day moves: up 5, down 7 (out of 12).
Release history
| Date | When | EPS est. | EPS actual | Surprise | Gap | 1 day | 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 3, 2026 | Before the open | 3.12 | 3.19 | +2.2% | -3.6% | -7.0% | -5.1% |
| May 6, 2026 | Before the open | 2.58 | 2.72 | +5.5% | +2.6% | +1.3% | -1.2% |
| Feb 10, 2026 | Before the open | 2.64 | 2.58 | -2.2% | +5.6% | +8.5% | +8.7% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | Before the open | 2.42 | 2.47 | +2.2% | +0.2% | +3.2% | +10.1% |
| Aug 5, 2025 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +0.1% | +0.2% | -0.4% |
| May 6, 2025 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | +3.6% | +1.9% | +10.0% |
| Feb 11, 2025 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -4.3% | -5.4% | -5.3% |
| Nov 4, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -2.0% | -1.6% | +7.8% |
| Jul 31, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -3.7% | -4.8% | -9.9% |
| May 1, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -1.0% | -1.0% | -0.1% |
| Feb 13, 2024 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -2.8% | -5.6% | -2.4% |
| Nov 2, 2023 | Before the open | n/a | n/a | n/a | -2.4% | -1.6% | +2.0% |
Release dates from SEC 8-K filings.
Updated 10/24/2026
Historical statistics for educational purposes only. They are not forecasts and not investment advice.
Price reaction to the news
Latest news on MAR and what the price did next.
- 9/30/2026PositiveGIC Acquires 16 Marriott-Run Hotels in Japan Amid Tourism Boom
- +1 day
- -1.4%
- +3 days
- -1.4%
- 6/12/2026PositiveHere's How Much You Would Have Made Owning Marriott International Stock In The Last 15 Years
- +1 day
- -2.2%
- +3 days
- -1.9%
- 5/20/2026Positive$100 Invested In Marriott International 10 Years Ago Would Be Worth This Much Today
- +1 day
- 0.0%
- +3 days
- -0.2%
- 2/22/2026PositiveMarriott Bonvoy rolls out a major new offer for loyal members
- +1 day
- -0.5%
- +3 days
- -0.7%
Return of the stock minus return of SPY over the same days. A news item close to a price move did not necessarily cause it. Historical data for educational purposes only, not investment advice.
Latest News
Recent headlines for MAR.
- 25d agoPOSITIVEGIC Acquires 16 Marriott-Run Hotels in Japan Amid Tourism Boom
Singapore's sovereign wealth fund GIC Pte. has acquired 16 hotels in Japan operated by Marriott International Inc. for approximately ¥125 billion ($800 million). This transaction occurs amidst a significant boom in Japan's tourism sector. For investors, this acquisition highlights the continued global interest in hospitality assets and the strong performance of Marriott's operated properties, potentially signaling robust operational capabilities and future growth prospects for the company.
- 6/12/2026POSITIVEHere's How Much You Would Have Made Owning Marriott International Stock In The Last 15 Years
Marriott International Inc. stock has delivered a remarkable performance over the past 15 years, generating substantial returns for its shareholders. While specific figures are not detailed in this summary, the article implies a significant positive trend in stock value, likely driven by consistent business growth, strategic expansion, and effective brand management within the hospitality sector. Investors who held Marriott stock during this period would have benefited from its resilience and ability to navigate market fluctuations, underscoring its position as a strong performer in the travel and leisure industry.
- 5/20/2026POSITIVE$100 Invested In Marriott International 10 Years Ago Would Be Worth This Much Today
An investment of $100 in Marriott International (MAR) a decade ago would have yielded a significant return, now valued at approximately $560. This performance outpaces many market benchmarks, highlighting the company's consistent growth and resilience in the hospitality sector. Marriott's strategic expansion, brand strength, and ability to adapt to evolving consumer travel trends have been key drivers. For investors, this historical performance suggests Marriott's potential for sustained value creation and its position as a strong contender in the travel and leisure industry.
- 2/22/2026POSITIVEMarriott Bonvoy rolls out a major new offer for loyal members
Marriott International is rolling out a new promotional strategy to retain members of its "Bonvoy" loyalty program. The company has introduced special offers and promotions, particularly during the "Cyber Sale" period in November, aiming to encourage advance bookings. This initiative seeks to capitalize on the trend of travelers planning well in advance, offering exclusive discounts and benefits for reservations made between late 2025 and early 2026. The goal is to strengthen customer loyalty and stimulate demand during strategic periods, improving property occupancy rates.